PIOJ Estimates Jamaica Economy Contracted 5.9% in Jan–Mar 2026

  • On May 20, 2026, the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) released preliminary estimates showing real GDP contracted by 5.9% in the January–March 2026 quarter relative to the same period in 2025. The decline was broad-based, with the Goods Producing Industry down 11.2% and the Services Industry down 4.1%, reflecting the lingering disruption from Hurricane Melissa and the early onset of cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.
  • Within the Goods Producing industry, Mining & Quarrying recorded the steepest decline at -26.6%, followed by Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing at -20.3%, Manufacturing at -7.7%, and Construction at -1.3%. The Mining contraction extends the -37.5% drop posted in Oct–Dec 2025, reflecting continued disruption to alumina and bauxite production in the wake of the hurricane. Declines in Agricultural output were sharpest in the western parishes, with St Elizabeth (39.9%) and Hanover (38.1%) bearing the brunt of post-hurricane crop damage. Agricultural output in St. Thomas also saw a steep decline of 27.2%.
  • Within the Services industry, Accommodation & Food Service Activities fell 20.4% (an improvement from -31.0% in Oct–Dec 2025 but still deeply negative), Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management declined 10.3%, Information & Communication contracted 7.1%, Transport & Storage fell 5.4%, and Education, Health & Other Services declined 5.2%. Only two sub-industries posted growth: Public Administration & Defence (+1.9%) and Financial & Insurance Activities (+1.8%), the latter reflects the sector's relative insulation from the physical shock.
  • For the full Fiscal Year 2025/26, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.7%, with Goods Producing down 2.2% and Services down 1.5%. The annual contraction was driven by Mining & Quarrying (-16.0%) and Accommodation & Food Service Activities (-10.9%), partially offset by Financial & Insurance Activities (+3.1%), Public Administration (+1.1%) and Construction (+0.6%).
  • Labour market indicators have, however, remained resilient. As of January 2026, the unemployment rate stood at 3.6% (down from 3.7% in January 2025), with youth unemployment improving to 10.7% from 12.3%.
  • Preliminary high-frequency data for April 2026 point to continued near-term weakness, with airport arrivals down 22.5% and alumina production down 27.3% versus April 2025. The data confirm that tourism and alumina, two of Jamaica's principal foreign-exchange earners, remain materially impaired heading into the April–June quarter.
  • Looking ahead, the PIOJ projects a further contraction of 3.0%–4.0% in April–June 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and slow recovery in storm-affected industries. For Fiscal Year 2026/27, however, PIOJ forecasts growth in the range of 1.0%–3.0%, with all industries expected to expand as the economy recovers from the 2025 weather-related shock. This growth band is consistent with the Bank of Jamaica's own FY2026/27 projection.

(Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica)