Panama Canal Restrictions Put Up to US$10Bn in CARICOM Imports at Risk

• Between US$8Bn and US$10Bn in annual CARICOM imports could be exposed to growing restrictions on shipping through the Panama Canal, according to preliminary analysis by the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO). The amount represents approximately one-quarter to one-third of CARICOM’s non-fuel import bill.
• The warning comes as the Panama Canal Authority implements new restrictions amid reduced rainfall and lower water levels. Daily vessel transits are capped at 34 from September 4 and will fall further to 32 from September 15, while rainfall in the canal watershed between May and August was 34% below the historical average.
• The effects are already being reflected in shipping costs. A priority auction slot recently attracted a US$5.3Mn bid, reportedly the highest on record. At the same time, major shipping companies, including CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced additional surcharges on routes dependent on the canal.
• CPSO estimates that US$4.5Bn–US$7Bn in goods annually transit the Panama Canal directly, with additional cargo routed through US ports before being shipped to Caribbean destinations. Higher auction premiums, surcharges and rerouting costs could therefore translate into higher landed costs and consumer prices across the region.
• Smaller Caribbean markets could also face reduced service frequency, longer delays and lower inventories if shipping constraints force carriers to reroute vessels or reduce port calls. CARICOM’s dependence on imported food, manufactured goods and construction materials increases its exposure to disruptions in international shipping networks.
• CPSO is encouraging importers to engage shipping and logistics providers on routing changes, surcharge exposure and inventory planning ahead of the final quarter of 2026 and the 2027 dry season. It is also promoting greater regional production and alternative supply arrangements to reduce CARICOM’s vulnerability to external supply shocks.
• The Panama Canal restrictions could add another source of inflationary pressure for import-dependent Caribbean economies through higher freight and landed costs. The risk is heightened by simultaneous disruptions affecting other major shipping corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz, which could further raise freight, fuel and risk premiums across the region.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)