IMF Projects Guyana’s Oil Fund Could Top US$34 Billion By 2031, Far Above Previous Outlook

• The IMF projects Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund could reach US$34.9Bn, or about 69% of GDP, by 2031 under current withdrawal rules, a much stronger outlook than its 2025 forecast of US$13.3Bn (over 32% of GDP) by 2030.
• The upgrade reflects Guyana’s rising share of oil profits as cost-recovery payments to oil companies decline, after ExxonMobil recovered about US$55Bn in costs for the first six Stabroek developments by mid-2026, roughly two years early, helped by higher crude prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
• Under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement, up to 75% of petroleum produced each month can be allocated to recover eligible costs. The remaining profit oil is divided equally between Guyana and the contractors, while the government also receives a 2% royalty.
• As recoverable costs decline, less oil is needed for cost recovery, increasing the government's share of production and revenue. However, new developments and ongoing operations continue to generate recoverable expenses. The IMF's latest outlook also anticipates further production growth. Three additional developments - Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead - are expected to help lift Guyana's oil output.
• The Fund reported that the NRF had already accumulated approximately US$4.9Bn by the end of August 2026. The US$34.9Bn projection remains dependent on factors including future oil prices, production, petroleum revenue and government withdrawals. The IMF has urged Guyana to maintain a long-term fiscal strategy that balances present development needs with savings for future generations.

(Source: Oil Now Guyana)