• Disruption to global shipping as cargo carriers avoid the Red Sea could fuel further price hikes and goods scarcities in Antigua and Barbuda within weeks.
• That was the stark warning from local port bosses, just days after a deeply unpopular hike in the sales tax (ABST) came into effect, forcing shoppers to dig even deeper when visiting supermarkets, restaurants, and entertainment spots alike.
• Attacks on ships in the Red Sea have seen freight firms bypass the vital waterway that connects major markets, instead taking the long route around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Notably, on Friday, the world’s biggest shipping company Maersk, announced it was suspending all Red Sea routes for the “foreseeable future”.
• Port Authority boss, Darwin Telemaque, said the situation was a “major source of concern” for all. “Shipping prices have already started rising,” he told Observer. “The duration for which cargo would arrive from Asia to North America, South America, and the Caribbean has been extended for several lines who have decided to avoid the Suez Canal.
• Telemaque said the problems are being compounded by droughts in the Panama Canal – which serves as a crucial link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans – reducing the number of ships that pass through there each day from around 36 to 18.

(Sources: Antigua Observer)

• The U.S. economy ended last year with the labour scars from the COVID-19 pandemic effectively healed and a quandary for Federal Reserve policymakers so far waiting in vain for wage and job growth to cool to a sustainable level. The addition of 216,000 jobs to U.S. payrolls in December and wage growth of 4.1% both beat expectations, quelling traders’ expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates at its March meeting.
• "Workers still have the upper hand in the current environment, with strong wage growth and plenty of job opportunities," wrote Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers. Wage growth remaining above 4% adds to concern that inflation in labour-intensive services industries may be hard to quell and represents "another blow to the odds that the Fed will cut rates early this spring."
• The language in the policy statement issued after the Dec. 12-13 session was changed to allow the possibility that no further rate increases will be needed. However, new projections showed most policymakers expect rate cuts of three-quarters of a percentage point will be appropriate by the end of the year.
• Minutes of that meeting reflected an increased sense among officials that they may be approaching a point where the risks to jobs and economic growth posed by the current level of interest rates are more serious than those posed by inflation and have fallen faster than expected of late and which by some measures is near the Fed's 2% target already.
• Despite the headline strength in employment, certain indicators suggest a potential slowdown. Recent revisions to job estimates, a decline in monthly payroll growth on a three-month average, and normalization of other labour market aspects indicate emerging challenges.
• Federal Reserve officials are beginning to question the continued need for tight monetary policy, with some recognizing potential tradeoffs between sustaining a healthy job market and addressing inflation concerns.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bleak forecasts from the UK's budget office suggest limited room for tax cuts or increased spending for the next government. However, a slight economic improvement beyond expectations could provide the winning party with significant fiscal flexibility, enabling tax cuts or funding for key plans.
• The current public debt is nearly 100% of economic output, and addressing it becomes challenging with a stagnant economy and increasing demands for public services. Productivity growth is a crucial factor; if it reaches pre-2008 levels, fiscal headroom could rise substantially, but a slowdown could lead to missing debt reduction targets by over 40 billion pounds.
• The Bank of England's interest rate policies significantly impact the government's debt interest costs, and recent expectations of rate drops could save the Treasury billions annually.
• The uncertainty of fiscal rules poses a challenge, as both major parties express the intention to reduce debt. Still, the specifics and potential changes in rules remain uncertain, affecting the government's fiscal decisions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Ciboney Group Limited (CBNY) announced that its shareholders have agreed to rename the company at its most recent annual general meeting in December. The resolution was passed for the company to be called Innovative Energy Group (IEC).
• IEC Energy Company Limited is a St. Lucia-based holding company/special purpose vehicle (SPV) incorporated to acquire the majority interest in CBNY. It was owned by Wiltshire Consulting and Advisory Group Limited and was transferred to Innovative Energy Company Limited.
• IEC purchased 393,732,417 shares or 72.1122% of the share capital on June 29, 2023, from the following former majority shareholders - FINSAC Limited (200,185 shares), Trumpton Limited (223,406,286), Jamaica Mutual Life Assurance Society (641,810 shares), Eagle Merchant Bank of Jamaica Limited (32,029,376 shares), and Crown Eagle Life Insurance Company Limited (137,454,760 shares).
• Of note, shareholders also agreed to increase the number of shares from 546Mn ordinary shares of no par value to No Maximum number of ordinary shares of no par value to facilitate the proposed subdivision of the existing ordinary shares in the capital of the Company.
• Ciboney Group was formerly a major investor in the Ciboney Hotels and Villas in Ocho Rios, St. Ann. However, the financial meltdown in the 1990s saw Ciboney's properties being sold off by the Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC), which was the majority shareholder in the distressed financial companies.

 (Source: JSE)

• The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ), through its Boosting Innovation Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE), announced that the Application Window for its Innovation Grant Fund (IGF) is now open, effective January 2, 2024. The Application Window will remain open for six (6) weeks until February 13, 2024.
• The Innovation Grant Fund (IGF) is an opportunity for medium-sized Jamaican companies with new and innovative products and services to access grant funding in the amount of Twenty million Jamaican Dollars (J$20Mn).
• Christopher Brown, Programme Manager, highlighted that twelve (12) medium-sized Jamaican companies have been awarded grants, representing an investment by the Bank of J$190Mn. He further noted that "The majority of the projects have been successfully completed and the remaining are now in the close-out phase; all of which has recorded growth and on an upward trajectory”.
• The DBJ is encouraging medium-sized Jamaican companies with innovative products and or services that are new and revolutionary to apply.
• BIGEE is the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) five-year project valued at US$25Mn and financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The Development Bank of Jamaica is the Executing Agency.
• The Agreement was executed between the GOJ and the IDB in the latter part of 2019; however, there were unforeseen delays in the launch due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Its objective is to promote sustainable and robust growth among start-ups and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Jamaica.

(Source: JSE)

• S&P Global Ratings (S&P) has affirmed its 'BBB' long-term local currency issuer credit rating on Sagicor Financial Company (SFC) and its Stable Outlook.
• Sagicor Group has healthy income diversification by business line and region, with its operations spanning 21 countries across the Caribbean and North America, providing life, health, and property/casualty insurance, annuities, and pension products to individuals and groups.
• The affirmation was driven by S&P’s revised criteria for analysing insurers' risk-based capital. Based on the revised criteria, the capital adequacy of Sagicor remains strong.
• Overall, S&P expects SFC to continue benefiting from the healthy demand for life and retirement products and the competitive interest rates in the multiyear guarantee annuity segment. Additionally, the company is set to maintain its solid brand recognition and strong relationships with policyholders and dealers.
• The stable outlook reflects the expectation that SFC will maintain total adjusted capital above S&P’s 'AA' category benchmark in the next two years, as well as stable debt.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Every worker in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), including undocumented migrants, must be paid the new minimum wage of $20.50 an hour, which took effect on January 1, 2024.
• This is according to a representative of the Ministry of Labour, who said employers failing to comply, regardless of the company's size, will be held liable for breaching the law.
• The increase in the minimum wage by $3 was announced in the national budget in October 2023 and enacted as law on December 28, 2023.
• Labour Inspector II, Paula Achaibar, said the new wage applies to any worker in Trinidad and Tobago. 'This is also applicable to our migrant population, now it matters not whether the person is here legally or illegally. That migrant worker is considered a worker and once you are a worker you are entitled to the same terms and conditions as a national simply because they are workers in Trinidad and Tobago,' she said.
• In addition, any worker, including a migrant worker, can report to the Labour Inspectorate Unit should their employer fail to pay the minimum wage.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• President Biden's administration is slowly putting oil back into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after selling a record amount from the emergency stockpile in 2022.
• In 2022, the administration announced a sale of 180Mn barrels over six months from the reserve, the largest ever SPR sale, in an effort to control fuel prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Energy Department also sold 38Mn barrels in 2022, which had been mandated in laws passed by Congress.
• The administration has repurchased 13.82Mn barrels of domestically produced, sour, or relatively high sulfur oil that many U.S. refineries are engineered to distill into fuels. It also has sped up the return of nearly 4Mn barrels to the SPR from loans to oil companies by several months.
• The oil is expected to be returned by February instead of mid-year. However, department officials have said the pace of the buybacks is being tempered by planned life extension maintenance at two of the four SPR sites. Further, analysts have said that Quick buybacks of much larger volumes could also risk pushing up oil and gasoline prices ahead of the presidential election in November.
• The U.S., which is producing oil at record volumes with more increases expected this year, also has more crude in the SPR than it is required to as a member of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog. Under the agreement, the U.S. is required to hold 90 days' worth of net petroleum imports.
• The administration sold the 180Mn barrels at an average of about $95 a barrel and wants to buy back oil at $79 a barrel or less. The current West Texas Intermediate oil price of about $72 a barrel allows such purchases. However, prices could go back up given the risk of the war in Gaza expanding to the greater Middle East, or effects from the conflict in Ukraine.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Bonds sold off and global equity markets failed to fully shake off New Year blues on Thursday after U.S. unemployment data indicated a resilient labor market, tempering expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024.
• The focus has turned to the U.S. central bank's efforts to steer the economy to a soft landing. "The real federal funds rate doesn't need to be as high and as restrictive as it currently is. Still, the Fed will need more evidence of inflation progress to get those cuts," said Roosevelt Bowman, senior investment strategist at Bernstein Private Wealth Management in New York.
• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Separately, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) National Employment Report showed U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in December.
• "The combination of better-than-expected ADP and lower-than-expected-jobless claims was enough to inspire a little bit of selling pressure on Treasuries," said Ben Jeffery, a U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. The reports "definitely moderate the odds of a near-term rate cut from the Fed just given the fact that the job market remains in a relatively good place," he said.
• Fed policymakers have indicated they expect three rate cuts this year. Futures traders have trimmed the total estimated reduction by December to just over 137 basis points (bps) from expectations of more than 160 bps late last year.
• Minutes from the U.S. central bank's December policy meeting offered few clues on when the Fed might start cutting rates. Traders see a 66.4% chance for at least a 25 bps rate cut in March and about a 92% probability in May, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Sagicor Group Jamaica Limited (SGJ) has announced the Group’s further expansion into the Latin American market, effective January 1, 2024. This strategic move was done through a joint venture with its Costa Rican partners (Capital & Advice Inc), for the acquisition of Sagicor Panama from Sagicor Life Inc. in Barbados.
• Christopher Zacca, President and CEO of SGJ, expressed that this is a tremendous achievement for the company, stating, "The acquisition of Sagicor Panama is a key step in our strategic objective of regional expansion.”
• Sagicor Panama currently offers a range of products, including Group and Individual Life insurance, Group and Individual Health insurance, and Personal Accident insurance. With this venture, Sagicor Group Jamaica aims to further diversify its product offerings in the Latin American market.
• This expansion marks a major achievement for Sagicor Group Jamaica as it increases its presence in the Latin American market and continues to position the company for further growth.

(Source: JSE)