• The Investors piled into U.S. government debt on Thursday, pushing Treasury yields sharply lower after Russia invaded Ukraine in the biggest attack by one country against another in Europe since World War Two. 
• Ukraine reported columns of troops pouring across its borders from Russia and Belarus, and landing on its coast from the Black and Azov seas, as missiles rained down on Ukrainian cities. World stock markets fell as the news pushed investors into safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries and gold. The U.S. dollar strengthened more than 1% and oil prices jumped more than 7%. 
• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell 8.1 basis points to 1.896% after earlier touching 1.846%. The benchmark note had been on track for its biggest daily drop since late November. A closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasuries, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 40.4 basis points.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly more than expected last week, indicating that the labour market recovery was gaining traction. 
• The weekly jobless claims report from the Labour Department on Thursday also showed unemployment rolls shrinking to levels last seen in 1970, underscoring the tightening labour market conditions. There is an acute shortage of workers, with a near-record number of job openings, keeping layoffs minimal. 
• Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High-Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York said that beyond weekly moves, they see the downtrend in filings persisting as virus-related disruptions continue to dissipate and businesses return to more normal operations. Overall, strong demand for labour, amid labour shortages, suggest layoffs will remain low. 
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Feb. 19. That almost revised the prior week's surge, which economists had blamed on week-to-week volatility in the data and the delayed impact of winter storms early in the month. 
• Unadjusted claims tumbled 24,824 to 214,873 last week, led by a sharp decline in Missouri. There were also significant decreases in filings in New York, Ohio, Tennessee, Florida and New Jersey. That offset a large increase in Michigan. With 10.9Mn job openings at the end of December, claims are likely to fall back below 200,000 in the coming weeks. They were last below this level in early December.

(Source: Reuters)

• Cabinet has approved a 28.5% increase in the national minimum wage, effective April 1, 2022. Minister of Labour and Social Security, Hon. Karl Samuda, says this will see the rate moving from $7,000 to $9,000 per 40-hour workweek. The minimum wage for industrial security guards will move from $9,700 to $10,500 per 40-hour workweek, along with accompanying allowances. 
• Jamaica’s economic recovery has been a major contributing factor to the minimum wage increase. Minister Samuda highlighted that the minimum wage could see a further increase however that would depend on the pace at which the Jamaican market recovers. 
• Given the pace of inflation, raising the minimum wage is important to ensure that minimum wage earners can maintain a basic standard of living by providing a more appropriate income level to cope with the increased cost of living. However, the increase will likely result in higher operating expenses for companies, which could in turn raise prices of goods and services to cover increased labour costs. This could further fuel inflation.

(Sources: JIS and NCBCM Research)

• Following difficult reforms, including streamlining the government and reducing public outlays, Jamaica's fiscal deficit has turned into a modest surplus, and Fitch expects this to continue over the coming decade. 
• Fitch’s view for sustained fiscal consolidation is supported by efforts to expand the tax base. Although Jamaica has lowered its corporate tax rate as part of its ongoing efforts to improve the business environment and incentivise investment, the government has worked to simplify its consumption tax framework and eliminate tax breaks for some industries, which will lead to increased revenue over the long term. 
• Better fiscal management on the part of the central government is critical for Jamaica's future since investors concerned about the country's long-term viability will need assurances that further defaults are not on the horizon. Fitch believes that a political consensus has emerged over demonstrating a firm commitment to more sustainable economic policy, which will underpin progress from a business environment standpoint.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Figures reported by Latin American sovereigns show stronger-than-expected recoveries in public finances. In 2021, deficits in many sovereigns narrowed close to pre-pandemic levels. 
• Strong tax collections were the main driver behind the better-than-expected fiscal outturns, buoyed by solid rebounds in real GDP, and grew well in excess of these variables almost everywhere. Higher commodity prices were a fiscal boon for the region’s oil and metals producers. 
• Spending remains well above pre-crisis levels in most countries, due to ongoing pandemic-related expenditure, and inertial growth in permanent spending in the past two years. The strong revenue rebound offset this higher spending in most sovereigns, bringing down deficits significantly, except in Chile and Colombia where this spending has been particularly large and even grew in 2021. 
• Brazil, however, was an exception, withdrawal of generous pandemic benefits and containment of recurrent expenditures brought primary spending back to pre-crisis levels in real terms.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Figures reported by Latin American sovereigns show stronger-than-expected recoveries in public finances. In 2021, deficits in many sovereigns narrowed close to pre-pandemic levels. 
• Strong tax collections were the main driver behind the better-than-expected fiscal outturns, buoyed by solid rebounds in real GDP, and grew well in excess of these variables almost everywhere. Higher commodity prices were a fiscal boon for the region’s oil and metals producers. 
• Spending remains well above pre-crisis levels in most countries, due to ongoing pandemic-related expenditure, and inertial growth in permanent spending in the past two years. The strong revenue rebound offset this higher spending in most sovereigns, bringing down deficits significantly, except in Chile and Colombia where this spending has been particularly large and even grew in 2021. 
• Brazil, however, was an exception, withdrawal of generous pandemic benefits and containment of recurrent expenditures brought primary spending back to pre-crisis levels in real terms.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• A team of oil and gas specialists have been summoned from the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago to assist Barbados with an urgent oil drilling mission, as the country looks long-term at cushioning any likely economic blow from the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 
• Minister of Energy, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Kerrie Symmonds urged citizens to brace for the possible impact, revealing that the most recent developments have made feared gas price increases “almost inevitable”. 
• Symmonds disclosed that a supply analysis conducted by the Barbados National Oil Company (BNOC) revealed that only 30% of the gas consumed here is locally produced with the remaining 70% imported. The minister urged citizens to conserve energy as the country continues to monitor the events happening in Ukraine and Russia. 
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to lead to a global economic blowout. Russia is the second-largest oil exporter, and its decision to invade Ukraine will have substantial implications on oil prices and the global economy.

 (Source: Barbados Today)

• The Institute of International Finance said on Wednesday that the Emerging market borrowing led by China inflated the global debt mountain to a record $303.0Tn in 2021, although the global debt-to-GDP ratio improved as developed economies rebounded. The $10.0Tn rise in the global debt pile was down from the $33.0Tn increase in 2020 when COVID-19-related expenditure soared. 
• But more than 80% of last year's new debt burden came from emerging markets, where total debt is approaching $100.0Tn. That means emerging markets have started in 2022 facing record-high refinancing needs just as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates after years of record-low borrowing costs. 
• While the pace of accumulation slowed in 2021, EM government debt levels remain elevated. This slowdown is in line with the moderation in government budget deficits seen over the past year. The IIF authors noted that since the onset of the pandemic, some EM governments seem more reliant on off-budget borrowing, pointing to rising non-financial corporate debt levels in China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. 
• The global debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 351% in 2021 from an all-time high of more than 360% in 2020, although last year's rate is some 28 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices reversed earlier losses on Wednesday, rising on reports that Ukraine's government, foreign ministry and state security service were affected by a cyberattack. 
• Brent crude was up $1.48, or 1.5%, to $98.32 a barrel at 10:38 a.m. EDT (1538 GMT), after hitting $99.50 on Tuesday, the highest since September 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.58, or 1.7%, to $93.47 a barrel, after reaching $96 on Tuesday. 
• U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday after giving up all of the opening gains as reports of cyberattacks on several Ukrainian state websites added to fears about escalating tensions with Russia. Ukraine declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy in the latest ominous signs for Ukrainians who fear an all-out Russian military onslaught. 
• Prices also rose on Tuesday on fears that sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia, after it sent troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, could hit energy supplies. Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan were focused on Russian banks and elites, while Germany halted certification of a gas pipeline from Russia. 
• But the United States made it clear that sanctions agreed and those which may be imposed will not target oil and gas flows. However, analysts expect oil prices to continue seeing support from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with some Western countries promising to impose more sanctions if Russia launches a full invasion.

(Source: Reuters)

• Massy Holdings Limited reported a net profit attributable to owners of the parent company from continuing operations of TTD177.21Mn for its first quarter ending December 31, 2021, which represents an 8.5% or TTD13.84Mn increase relative to the prior period. 
• Revenues grew by 8.4% as the Group’s topline benefited from growth in its three main investment portfolios (Integrated Retail, Gas Products, and Motors and Machines). 
• Management attributed this growth to the rebound in some of the territories that it operates in, particularly, Guyana, and noted that others are rebounding strongly from pandemic-induced recessions. 
• After its first quarter, the company cross-listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and its shareholders agreed to a 20-for-1 stock split. The share split has a target date of March 11, 2022, and is intended to enhance retail trading of Massy’s shares in Jamaica as well as in Trinidad and Tobago. 
• Massy’s stock price has decreased by 18.2% since its enlistment on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on January 27, 2022. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $1996.48 and currently trades at a P/E of 13.5x earnings which is below the Main Market Conglomerate Sector Average of 15.7x.

(Source: Company Financials and NCBCM Research)