• Despite past challenges, Guyana’s bauxite industry is poised to make a notable ‘comeback’, thanks to its substantial amounts of minerals yet to be extracted. Currently, the country’s bauxite reserves alone are estimated to be worth close to US$1Bn. 
• Notably, although Guyana has been producing top-tier bauxite for decades, it is yet to become a notable aluminium producer; however, this could soon change, as the government pushes ahead to implement a comprehensive energy mix, using ‘renewables’ such as wind, solar, ‘hydro’ and natural gases to produce alternative energy, thereby making manufacturing investments feasible across a myriad of sectors including mining. 
• With the government’s efforts to reduce the cost of electricity, the establishment of a smelter factory would not only be possible, but financially viable as well. Smelting is a process that uses heat and a chemical-reducing agent to decompose the ore, driving off other elements as gasses, or slag, and leaving just the metal behind. A smelter operation would also present the need for an aluminium plant, which would convert the extracted bauxite into aluminium. 
• The government of Guyana has indicated that it is aware of the critical role of the mining sector in the economy, and will continue to invest in, and promote, the expansion of the sector, while also being mindful of the challenges and vulnerabilities, as illustrated during the 2021 floods when operating sites and access roads were inundated and rendered impassable for an extended time. Meanwhile, in its entirety, the mining and quarrying sector is forecast to grow by 86 per cent in 2022, driven by expansion across all subsectors, namely petroleum, gold and bauxite, along with other mining and quarrying.

 (Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest levels since 2008 as the United States and European allies considered banning Russian oil imports, while it looked less likely that Iranian crude would return swiftly to global markets. 
• Brent rose $5.1, or 4.3%, to settle at $123.21 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to settle at $119.40 a barrel. During the session, both benchmarks hit the highest since July 2008 with Brent hitting $139.13 a barrel and WTI $130.50. 
• Global oil prices have spiked about 60% since the start of 2022, raising concerns about global economic growth and stagflation. China, the world's No. 2 economy, is targeting slower growth of 5.5% this year. 
• On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States and European allies were exploring banning imports of Russian oil. The White House on Monday said President Joe Biden has not decided on a ban on Russian oil imports. Oil prices could climb to over $300 per barrel if the United States and European Union ban imports of oil from Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Biden administration is threatening to add companies to a trade blacklist if they skirt new export curbs against Russia, as it ramps up efforts to keep a vast array of technology out of the country after it invaded Ukraine last month. 
• The U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees export controls, is mobilizing staff around the globe to halt illicit shipments of computers, aircraft parts, marine equipment and other technology to Russia, partnering with allied countries and U.S. law enforcement agencies like the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to crack down on the newly illegal trade, according to U.S. officials. 
• The goal is to enforce sweeping new restrictions on shipments to Russia of both U.S. and foreign commodities, technology and software if produced with U.S. equipment, technology or software. The restrictions also apply to Belarus. 
• Already some of the biggest names in tech, like Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Intel Corp, have announced they will halt shipments to Russia. U.S. exports to Russia were under $5.0Bn in 2020, according to the Commerce Department but, a senior official has said, multilateral cooperation means more than $50.0Bn in key inputs to Russia may be curbed.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Output prices for producers within the Mining and Quarrying industry decreased by 0.7% at the beginning of the 2022 calendar year, following an increase of 2.8% in December 2021, as reported by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). However, for the Manufacturing industry, producer prices increased by 2.0%, 1.8 percentage points above the 0.2% recorded in December 2021. 
• The movement in the Mining and Quarrying industry index in January reflects a fall of 0.8% in the index for the heavier weighted major group Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing. 
• For January, the main contributors to the increase in the index for the Manufacturing industry were the major groups, Refined Petroleum Products up 8.8%, Chemicals and Chemical Products up 1.4% and Food, Beverages & Tobacco grew by 0.5%. 
• For the period January 2021 – January 2022, the Mining & Quarrying industry PPI rose by 40.2%, due mainly to an increase of 41.5% in the index for the major group Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing. The point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry moved by up 22.1%. For the 2021/2022 fiscal year, April 2021 – January 2022, the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry increased by 36.2%, while the index for the Manufacturing industry advanced by 14.7%.

(Source: STATIN) 

• The Barbados government is already seeking to put measures in place to cushion any likely fallout from the war that has broken out in Ukraine with Russia, which could have implications for the cost of fuel and food, the supply of food and result in disruptions in the supply chain globally. 
• Prime Minister Mottley noted that hat Barbados’ reserves stood at over $3 billion, representing about 37 weeks of import cover, giving the country adequate buffers to deal with increased prices at least for a period. 
• Currently, the country has embarked on efforts undertaken by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Nutritional Security to boost food production in the country to ensure Barbados is in a better position to feed its citizens amidst the crisis which had led to increases in food prices. 
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to have adverse effects on the local economy through higher inflation and surges in oil and prices of other commodities such as wheat and corn. This will inadvertently, lead to higher electricity and gas prices for both consumers and producers alike.

 (Source: Barbados Today)

• Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo), Sasenarine Singh revealed that the government is planning to build a new packaging plant at Albion along with the expansion of one at Blairmont for 2022. 
• The project is aimed at Guyana being able to sell sugar at a higher value and to ensure the country has enough capacity to produce packaged sugar products to meet the demands of the new international market. 
• The government has already made headway in opening new markets with GuySuCo successfully opening markets in Jamaica and Grenada. The company was also able to secure sugar sales for the first time to Germany. This new venture will lead to an increase in government revenues, exports, expansion of the sugar sector and overall economic growth.  

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The United States on Monday imposed sanctions on Russia's central bank and other sources of wealth, dealing a crushing blow to the country's economy and further punishing Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. 
• The measures, blocking Americans from engaging in any transactions involving Russia's central bank, finance ministry or national wealth fund, are likely to push Russian inflation higher, cripple its purchasing power and drive down investments, U.S. officials said on Monday as the new measures took effect. 
• The actions included a carve-out for energy payments. Last week Washington imposed several rounds of sanctions, including against Russian President Vladimir Putin and major banks, after Russia's forces invaded Ukraine in the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two. 
• A senior U.S. administration official has said that their objective is to make sure that the Russian economy goes backwards if President Putin decides to continue to go forward with an invasion in Ukraine and that they have the tools to continue to do that. 
• Washington and its allies said on Saturday they would take action against the central bank and bar some of Russia's banks from the SWIFT international payments system, a list officials said was still being finalized with EU partners. Russia's central bank more than doubled its key policy rate on Monday and introduced some capital controls, but its governor said sanctions had stopped it from selling foreign currency to prop up the rouble.

(Source: Reuters)

• Russia has closed its airspace to airlines from 36 countries, including all 27 members of the European Union, in response to Ukraine-related sanctions targeting its aviation sector. 
• Some of the banned countries had already been identified, while others were named by the aviation authority Rosaviatsia for the first time on Monday, following the punitive measures imposed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 
• The flight bans are expected to hurt airlines that fly over the world's biggest country to get from Europe to Asia. They are likely to force them to find new routes.  Rosaviatsia has said that flights from those countries could in exceptional circumstances be authorised if they secure special clearance from Russia's aviation authority or foreign ministry.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions expects political risk in Jamaica to remain elevated in 2022, offering potential headwinds to Jamaica’s economic recovery. Fitch has adjusted down the country’s score in its Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 72.3 to 71.7, to reflect increasing inflation and elevated levels of violent crime, which it believes the government has few tools to address. 
• While the country’s STPRI score is still buoyed to a certain extent by an easy policymaking environment, with the ruling the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) benefitting from a sizeable majority in the House of Representatives, the downward adjustment places the country 14th out of 23 countries in the Caribbean region. 
• Elevated inflation will weigh on sentiment and increase the risk of popular unrest. Inflation has continued to climb in recent months, reaching 9.1% y-o-y (0.8% m-o-m) as of end-2021, while utility prices rose 12.6%, dampening households’ ability to pay for necessities such as food, transportation and utilities like electricity and water. 
• In response to the high prices, the President of the Transport Operators Development Sustainable Services, Egerton Newman, announced on February 2 that his organisation of private transportation operators are ready to take to the streets in protest of spiralling fuel prices if the government does not act. 
• While Fitch expects that inflation will ease in H222, price growth will remain elevated by historic standards this year. Inflation is expected to average 6.0% in 2022 compared to 5.8% in 2021 and 3.6% in the five years before the Covid-19 crisis. This is likely to weigh on household sentiment, even as unemployment falls and remittances remain fairly robust.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch forecasts that Peruvian real GDP growth will slow to 3.1% in 2022, from 13.3% in 2021, due to weaker domestic demand. In 2021, Peru was the fastest-growing among Latin America’s large economies as real GDP exceeded 2019 levels in every expenditure component except for exports. In Q4 2021, the economy grew 3.2% y-o-y. 
• Stringent lockdown measures in 2020 depressed private consumption and headline growth, but household incomes and spending surged in 2021 as the government maintained stimulus measures, a steady vaccination campaign allowed policymakers to loosen restrictions and Peruvians felt more confident in the broader recovery. 
• In 2022, private consumption is expected to be the main driver of growth; however, Fitch expects it will increase 3.3% this year, down from an 11.7% expansion in 2021. Notably, the country’s growth forecast was also revised down by the agency, from 3.6% previously. The revision is a result of elevated inflation and rising borrowing costs for households and businesses causing private consumption and investment growth to weaken over the coming quarters. 
• Growth will average 3.2% from 2023-2026 amid sustained private consumption and export growth, several downside risks to Fitch’s growth forecasts stems from the Russia-Ukraine hostilities and the potential for Chinese growth to underperform.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)