• Ever since Guyana sold its first 1,000,000 (one million) barrels of crude in February 2020 for GY$11.5 billion, the petroleum industry has raked in as much as GY$440 billion; this represents GY$57 billion more than the national 2021 budget. An analysis done by OilNow shows that since 2016, the burgeoning oil-and-gas sector has contributed more than $50 billion in taxes. 
• Added to that, ExxonMobil Guyana has said that throughout 2020, the sector contributed more than GY$180.39 billion, an equivalent of US$901.95 million, to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 
• Outside of this, oil giant ExxonMobil had said that its Guyana operations between 2015 to present has seen another GY$100.50 billion being expended on the procurement of goods and services from dozens of local businesses. 
• These economic injections are slated to increase exponentially, in keeping with the projected growth of the industry itself. As a matter of fact, a report compiled by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) early this year shows that earnings from Guyana’s oil-and-gas sector could reach US$31 billion (roughly G$6.7 trillion) by 2035.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• British businesses reported the fastest growth in new orders since June this month alongside record cost pressures, according to a closely watched business survey that could pave the way for a Bank of England rate rise in December. 
• The IHS Markit/CIPS flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), published on Tuesday, edged down to 57.7 in November from October's final reading of 57.8. But that still indicated strong growth and was a shade higher than economists' average forecast in a Reuters poll. 
• "A combination of sustained buoyant business growth, further job market gains and record inflationary pressures gives a green light for interest rates to rise in December," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at financial data provider IHS Markit, said.

(Source: Investing.com)

• U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Tuesday amid rising bets for a quicker tightening of Fed’s monetary policy after President Joe Biden tapped Fed-Chair Jerome Powell to lead the central bank for a second term. 
• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose one basis point at 1.634%, not far from a 2021 high of around 1.7760% hit in end-March. Yields are up by more than 7 bps since Powell's news in the previous session. 
• The short-end of the curve was the hardest hit. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was flat at 0.63% after hitting its highest level since early March 2020. 
• U.S. inflation-protected bond yields also rose for a second consecutive session with ten-year yields holding near minus 1%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The IMF has indicated that the availability of pre-COVID-19 buffers built up by the government, coupled with the calibrated policy response through an ambitious reform programme and strengthened oversight of the financial system, ensured the pandemic-related shock was not followed by a fiscal, financial, or balance of payment crisis. 
• The Fund acknowledged that the economy is recovering. Tourism has rebounded to near 70.0% of pre-crisis levels, despite two COVID-19 waves this year, and other sectors have picked up as well. Real GDP in Q2 2021 was 14.2% higher than the same quarter a year earlier. The IMF projects growth of 8.25% in FY2021/22, moderating to 3.5% in FY2022/23.
• However, the risks to the outlook are substantial with COVID-19 being the most significant. A third COVID-19 wave is abating, and vaccination has picked up pace, with one million people now having received at least one dose. But new COVID-19 waves in Jamaica or abroad could lead to a more prolonged disruption of tourism, trade, and capital flows. 
• The uncertain duration of global inflationary pressures poses another risk to the forecast. The sharp rise in world food and energy prices has helped push year-on-year inflation to 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target range of 4-6 percent. Natural disasters continue to be an ever-present risk. On the other hand, a faster pace of vaccinations at home and abatement of the pandemic in Jamaica’s main tourism markets are upside risks. 
• As the crisis recedes and the recovery advances Jamaica should restart debt reduction and rebuild buffers. Importantly, the Fund opined that policies should also focus on boosting growth, which has been low in the last decades, enhancing institutions, and tackling the still high levels of poverty and crime.

(Source: IMF & JIS News)

• As Jamaica’s tourism continues its strong rebound, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says that the sector is projected to surpass pre-pandemic figures by the end of 2024. Total visitor arrivals are estimated to reach 4.5Mn, with gross foreign exchange earnings of US$4.7Bn. 
• Currently, total visitor arrivals are estimated at 3.2Mn by the end of 2022, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.1Mn and stopover arrivals, 2.1Mn, while earnings are projected at US$3.3Bn. Jamaica’s visitor numbers are expected to total 4.1Mn by the end of 2023, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.6Mn, stopover arrivals, 2.5Mn, and earnings of US$4.2Bn. 
• Meanwhile, stopover arrivals year to date stand at 1.2Mn, and since cruise shipping resumed in August, Jamaica has welcomed more than 36,000 cruise passengers, while earnings are at the US$1.5Bn mark. 
• Bartlett noted that Jamaica is well on its way to recovery. He highlighted that the 2021 stopover arrivals are estimated to be up 41.0% year-over-year, and year to date, Jamaica has recouped nearly half of 2019’s stopover business. 
• He noted that December is usually a strong month for the industry and it begins the high season when the rates are higher, so Jamaica will likely meet its forecast of 1.6Mn visitors and over US$2.0Bn in earnings.

(Source: JIS News)

• Following the downgrade by Moody’s on November 12, 2021, Finance Minister, Colm Imbert, said the Government is 'certainly prepared to heed' the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that 'policy attention should focus on reducing public debt levels and rebuilding fiscal buffers,' once the economic recovery is firmly in place. 
• Yesterday afternoon, Imbert suggested that the Government would welcome 'more detailed technical engagement,' on the call by the IMF for the Government to remove restrictions on current international transactions. 
• Those comments came in the third news release from the Ministry of Finance following the publication of the IMF's concluding statement on Friday after its 2021 Article IV consultation with the T& T authorities. 
• The news release was headlined 'The IMF Praises Trinidad and Tobago's Policy Response to COVID-19 and Encourages T&T to Shift its Policy Attention Only When Recovery is in Place'. 
• Regarding the IMF's mission statement that it encouraged the Government 'to modernise foreign exchange and money market infrastructure to reduce inefficiencies and imbalances to support the sustainability of the existing arrangements,' Imbert said: 'We are welcoming any constructive solutions that will, in the end, improve our citizens' lives.'

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The Dominican Republic government is moving forward with the integration of services and other productive sectors with Central American countries. 
• The process is the result of two meetings President Luis Abinader has with his counterparts of the Central American region, specifically Costa Rica and Panama, to work together and take advantage of the post-COVID opportunities since investments of US$3 to US$4.5 trillion are expected to be changing the manufacturing base. 
• Flacquer explained that any country that captures only 0.1% of these investments would triple its exports. 
• The Dominican Republic is the sixth-largest trading partner of the U.S. and, together with Panama and Costa Rica, will become the third, with 20 million inhabitants between the three and whose block will only be surpassed by Brazil and Mexico.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Central banks in developing economies ramping up interest rates will be supportive for emerging market debt and provide a buffer against policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but could spell trouble for equities, BlackRock said on Monday. 
• "Central banks across the emerging world have been raising interest rates to try to contain inflation and prevent their currencies from depreciating sharply," said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute at the world's largest asset manager. 
• A weighted average of policy rates across emerging markets that are part of JPMorgan's global diversified index now stands at 3.2% and is expected to rise to just under 5% in a year. This compares to near zero or negative rates in the United States and the Euro area. 
• "This makes us cautious on EM equities, but has made selected EM debt more attractive in a world starved for yield”. Said Wei Li.

(Source: Reuters)

• The S&P 500 eased from record intraday highs Monday but remained supported as investors cheered news that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was nominated for another term. 
• The S&P 500 rose 0.51%, and had earlier hit a record of 4,743.74, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.77% or 272 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. 
• President Joe Biden nominated Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair and nominated Governor Lael Brainard to vice-chair. 
• Both Mr Powell and Ms Brainard have similar dovish views on monetary policy but many believe that Ms Brainard would promote tighter regulation of financial institutions. For that reason, the Powell nomination has been viewed favourably by financial markets. 
• Treasury yields jumped on the news, suggesting that some had been betting on Brainard, who leans more dovish, which would likely have led to a lower for longer approach on monetary policy.

(Source: Investing.com)

• Jamaica is now leading the world in terms of demand by persons searching for destinations; international air passengers; Global Distribution System (GDS) bookings as well as air seat capacity recovery. 
• Director of Tourism, Donovan White informed that the demand for Jamaica as of now is 38.0% of 2019, against the world demand of 24.0%. 
• In terms of air seat capacity flown, committed or scheduled to be flown to the destination, Jamaica is at 65.0% of 2019 air capacity against the world capacity of 44.0% of 2019. 
• He added that for international air passengers, Jamaica is at 45.0% of 2019 levels against the world delivery of passengers of 31.0% and by way of GDS – the platform travel agents use to book travel – Jamaica is at 61.0% of 2019 levels versus 28.0% for the world. 
• The information about Jamaica’s world-leading status was shared recently in a sit-down with Amadeus at the World Travel Market in London. Mr. White noted that Amadeus is the most interconnected IT company in the travel industry globally, handling some 8.5Bn travel transactions daily. 
• This demand for Jamaica’s tourism product has been reflected in the gradual recovery in tourism activity since the start of the year. These numbers could improve if the country is able to increase its vaccination rate to stem the spread of the virus and support further improvement in country’s ranking on the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention’s travel advisory. A higher vaccination rate would facilitate further easing of restrictions on movement and re-opening of the entertainment sector. Jamaica is currently ranked at level three, which urges US travelers to be fully vaccinated before travelling.

(Source: JIS & NCBCM Research)