• Brazil’s improving fiscal performance means 2021 outturns will be better than previously forecast, but permanent stabilization and reduction of the public debt burden will require returning to primary surpluses in the coming years. 
• Fiscal prospects have improved due to strong revenue recovery and contained spending growth. Net central government revenues grew over 30% in real terms in 7Months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Higher revenue growth reflects high nominal GDP growth and greater consumption of goods than services, the former being taxed more. 
• Combined with improved budgetary performance by regional governments, this means the general government primary deficit is likely to end 2021 below 1.5% of GDP, down from the 2.4% previously forecasted, despite the reintroduction of emergency aid to vulnerable segments of the population. Debt is expected to fall this year to 81.5% (previous forecast: 84.2%) of GDP from 88.8% of GDP last year. 
• The 2022 budget presented on 31 August envisages further consolidation, targeting a primary deficit of 0.5%, mainly as pandemic spending is unwound. Non-tax revenue assumptions appear cautious as they do not include income from concessions or privatizations, but the budget’s 2.5% growth assumption appears optimistic.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• China’s factory activity contracted in September for the first time since the pandemic began last year, a sign of the damage a widespread electricity crunch is having on an already slowing economy. 
• The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 49.6 from 50.1 in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday, below the 50 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Readings below the 50-mark signal a contraction in output. 
• China is facing a widespread power crunch that threatens to slow economic growth and disrupt global supply chains just ahead of the year-end Christmas shopping season. At least 20 provinces have restricted electricity use in September, curbing factory production on everything from aluminum and steel to toys and clothing. 
• The electricity shock adds to a slew of headwinds already hitting the economy: the financial system is under stress because of China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis; high commodity prices have squeezed industrial profits; the government has cracked down on industries from property to the internet; and consumer spending remains weak due to virus outbreaks.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Global stock markets continued to fall Thursday as inflation fears persisted and expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten policy in the coming months. 
• Earlier in the week, global stock markets suffered their worst rout since January. A heavy sell-off in tech stocks on Tuesday had consigned Wall Street to its steepest drop since mid-July. Global shares had staged a partial recovery Wednesday but resumed their decline on Thursday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.04%. 
• "U.S. investors are glad to see September end," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, summing up the mood of most market participants. "US stocks ended mostly on a down note as lawmakers try to avoid a government shutdown and deliver on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, all while an energy crisis brews abroad."

(Source: Reuters)

• Supported by higher core revenues and other income gains, Pulse Investments grew its net profit by 74.8% to $1.47Bn (EPS: $0.23) for the financial year ending June 30, 2021. 
• Revenues increased by 19.0% ($128.97Mn) on the back of higher in kind sponsorship, advertising entitlements, model agency income, and revenue from rental of properties. Other income/gains also rose by 92.3% ($538.54Mn). 
• To a lesser extent, the improved bottom-line was also influenced by lower admin and other expenses which declined by 3.1% ($12.36Mn), due to lower spending on areas such as accommodation, meals, bar costs and travel. 
• The performance was tempered by an increase in finance cost and tax expenses of 133.5% ($16.90Mn) and 257.7% ($34.34Mn), respectively. The increase in finance cost was driven by a higher loan interest and overdraft interest expense. 
• Since the start of the year, the company has raised J$2.3Bn in capital, which is largely being used to acquire new property and execute real estate development projects. These investments should improve future rental property income and fair value gains, which will support greater profitability. 
• Pulse’s stock price has remained relatively stable since the start of the year, declining just  0.1%. The stock closed Wednesday’s trading session at a price of $4.82, implying a trailing P/E ratio of 21.0x, which is above the main market average of 16.2x.

(Source: Pulse Investment Financials & NCBCM Research)

• The Government will be increasing budgetary spending by approximately $33.0Bn during the current fiscal year to provide additional resources to the health sector, increased support for the most vulnerable, along with funding for other critical areas of expenditure due to the coronavirus pandemic. 
• The additional allocation increases the budget to just over $863.0Bn. Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, noted that the First Supplementary Estimates are being tabled within the context of government revenues exceeding budgetary targets by $17.3Bn billion for April to July 2021. 
• Robust economic growth of 12.9% for the first quarter of this fiscal year, as the economy begins a strong recovery from COVID-19, has buttressed revenue uptake. Total expenditure is being increased by approximately $33.0Bn, while total revenues are being revised upwards by $33.5Bn for the full fiscal year. 
• Of the $27.5Bn increase in recurrent non-debt expenditure, 56.0% or $15.6Bn is being allocated to the health sector and towards support of the most vulnerable through the SERVE Jamaica Programme. As such, the full-year allocation to the SERVE will increase from $60.0Bn to $75.6Bn. The SERVE Jamaica Programme is the Government’s social and economic recovery initiative that is designed to respond to the challenges posed by COVID-19, and to facilitate a timely recovery from the pandemic and its effects.

(Source: JIS News)

• Guyana’s eighth oil consignment is slated to be lifted in November, according to Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat, who confirmed that this next oil lift will also mark the fifth for this year. 
• On Tuesday, the Guyana Chronicle reported that because of the continued rise in global oil prices, the country’s petroleum revenues will remain on an upward trajectory, with the country’s eighth oil lift positioned to rake in close to US$80 million. 
• At the time of that report, the price for brent crude was pegged at approximately $79.24 – its highest since October 2018. However, that figure has dropped slightly to $78.72 per barrel, as at Tuesday. 
• Should this remain the case during Guyana’s November oil sale, the country would earn some $78,720,000, which would be less than revenues garnered from the seventh oil lift that valued US$79,617,561.87, and marked the largest single oil payment the country has received to date.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The manufacturing sector continues to be a key contributor to the economic success of St. Kitts and Nevis despite COVID-19 challenges, said Prime Minister, Dr. the Honourable Timothy Harris, during his monthly press conference held at the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) Conference Room on September 28. 
• The manufacturing and export sectors in St. Kitts and Nevis are on the rebound as global economic activity picks up following the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic. 
• “Entities such as JARO Limited, Carib Brewery (St. Kitts & Nevis) Limited, Kajola Kristada Limited and API Harowe (St. Kitts) are contributing to GDP in real terms in spite of COVID-19 challenges,” said Prime Minister Harris. “A look at the manufacturing sector shows that this sector has been resilient. It has created direct employment for over 1,200 persons. 
• After contracting by 18.7% in 2020, the IMF is projecting a narrower contraction of 2.0% for the economy in 2021 due to the severe impact that the pandemic has on the tourism sector. 
• However, rebound in tourism should prompt a strong recovery from 2022 onward, with the pre-pandemic GDP level expected to be reached in 2024. However, the recovery path could be derailed should the pandemic impose sustained disruptions on the anticipated pace of tourism inflows and domestic activity. Other risks include financial sector uncertainties, natural disasters, and lower-than-expected Citizenship by Investment (CBI) receipts. 
• As the recovery takes hold, the IMF expects policy focus will shift to rebuilding fiscal buffers by resuming to save part of the CBI revenues, preparing the financial system for exit from the temporary support measures and pursuing structural reforms to support productivity, economic competitiveness, and human capital.

(Source: SKN Vibes & IMF)

• Fitch Solutions expects that market volatility will remain elevated in the short term due to a combination of factors weighing on the economic recovery and global markets. The recent sell-off was triggered by (1) Jerome Powell’s (the US Federal Reserve Chairman) warning to US Congress that inflation could remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated, and (2) potential contentious negotiations on Capitol Hill as the US is nearing its debt ceiling. 
• Furthermore, markets had already been weakening on the back of slowing growth momentum, due to the fading of hitherto strong base effects, the waning of credit impulse in several economies (US and China in particular), growth concerns in China and elevated inflation. 
• Slowing growth and rising inflation could be further exacerbated by the current energy crunch. Energy prices, as proxied by natural gas, have soared by around 150% since April and will likely remain elevated as the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches. Rising energy prices could sap consumer and business purchasing power, while power shortages could also result in lost output, adding further pressure on supply bottlenecks.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Supply constraints thwarting global economic growth could still get worse, keeping inflation elevated longer, even if the current spike in prices is still likely to remain temporary, the world's top central bankers warned on Wednesday. 
• Global inflation has spiked in recent months on a surge in energy prices, and the production bottlenecks are pushing prices even higher, raising fears that the run-up, if it lasts long enough, could seep into expectations and raise the overall profile of inflation. 
• The problem is that central banks, the main authority for controlling prices, have no influence over short-term supply disruptions, so they are likely to be bystanders, waiting for economic anomalies to self-correct without lasting damage. 
• Still, even as policymakers called for heightened attention to inflation, all maintained their long standing view that the spike in inflation would be temporary and price rises would moderate next year, moving back to or below central bank targets.

(Source: Reuters)

• Margaritaville (Turks) Ltd. has reported a significant decline in its earnings from a net profit of US$72,132 in FY 2020 to a loss of US$1.38Mn in FY 2021, on the back of a falloff in revenues. 
• At the close of the financial year ended May 2021, one of the major cruise lines, Carnival cruise, had not resumed activity in Grand Turk, which contributed to a 99.2% decline in revenues. However, as vaccination rates in source markets increase and as cruise ships gradually resume operations, the company’s revenues should begin to improve. 
• The impact of the falloff in revenues on the company’s bottom-line was tempered by a decline in direct, admin and promotional expenses by 97.4%, 70.9% and 100.0%, respectively. The drop in admin expenses was partly due to lower spending on employee benefits such as salaries, wages, medical and related expenses. 
• Margaritaville’s stock price has fallen by 65.4% since the start of the year and closed Tuesday’s trading session at a price of $15.05 per share.

(Source: Margaritaville Financials & NCBCM Research)