• Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has officially launched the Government’s $800.0Mn Social Pension Programme, the first of its kind in Jamaica, which provides a guaranteed income for vulnerable persons 75 years and older. 
• He noted that apart from the COVID-19 Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) programme, and the Social and Economic Recovery (SERVE) programme, which are pandemic related, the new Social Pension Programme is the largest social protection initiative to be implemented by the Government since the introduction of PATH 20 years ago. 
• He also acknowledged that there are many elderly persons in need of financial support, who do not qualify for existing social welfare initiatives. The implementation of this programme for needy seniors is therefore crucial given the Government’s moral and social obligation to guarantee a minimum level of social protection for all citizens. 
• The introduction of the new Social Pension Programme will enable the government to reduce income inequality and promote a better quality of life for Jamaica’s older population.

(Source: JIS News)

• The strain of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to steadily ease in much of Latin America over the coming months. Most countries in the region experienced a worse outbreak in Q221 than the initial wave in cases in Q220, but case levels across South America have fallen significantly from the surge seen in late-May 2021. 
• At the same time, vaccination programmes have accelerated in the past month as global production continues to increase and US and Chinese vaccine donations to the region rise. Uruguay and Chile have the highest vaccination rates in South America with 73.5% and 72.2% respectively of the total population receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of July 27. 
• Despite the high case levels and re-imposition of lockdown measures, the economic recovery across South America has continued as external demand for commodities remains strong and economies become more resilient to the impact of public health restrictions. 
• Still, the broadening of South America’s vaccination programmes will leave economic activity less vulnerable to the kind of disruptive public health restrictions seen in Q221, suggesting that the region’s recovery will strengthen in the coming quarters. 
• That being said, the pandemic will continue to pose downside risks to growth as major economies such as Colombia and Peru have struggled to ramp up vaccination campaigns and fast-spreading variants of COVID-19 have emerged.

(Source: Fitch solutions)

• After the Mexican economy outperformed Fitch Solutions’ expectations in H121, the agency has revised up its 2021 real GDP growth forecast to 6.0% y-o-y, from 5.5% previously. 
• On July 30, Mexico’s statistics agency INEGI released preliminary figures showing that real GDP grew 19.7% y-o-y in Q221, contributing to 7.0% growth in H121. Fitch’s last forecast in late May projected growth of 18.4% in Q221 and 6.4% in H121, both lower than the preliminary numbers. This reflected a stronger performance in the agricultural and services sectors than expected. 
• Despite the continued spread of COVID-19 and the presence of activity restrictions throughout the quarter, the Mexican economy’s growth is in line with a broad trend in Latin America of consumers and businesses adapting to the pandemic.  
• Note, however, that a third wave of COVID-19 cases and a lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus will cause the overall pace of growth to moderate moving forward.

(Source: Fitch solutions)

• British consumer price inflation will reach 3.9% early next year, almost double the Bank of England's target, but should fall back to 2% the year after if the BoE begins to raise interest rates, a leading think tank forecast on Monday. 
• The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) also revised up its growth forecast for 2021 by 1.1 percentage points to 6.8% - broadly in with the most recent forecasts from the BoE and the International Monetary Fund. 
• A sharp rise in oil prices and bottlenecks in supply chains have pushed up inflation in Britain and most other Western economies, with NIESR's forecast suggesting British inflation is on course to hit its highest since late 2011. 
• “To prevent a possible dislodging of inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee should prepare the ground for normalizing its monetary policy stance, and this involves clearly communicating how Bank rate and asset purchases will be adjusted in response to higher inflation," NIESR Deputy Director Hande Kucuk said. 
• The BoE will set out new growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday, and many economists expect it to update guidance about when it might consider beginning to reverse quantitative easing bond purchases.

(Source: Reuters)

• The COVID-19 pandemic reversed a steady decline in global current account imbalances in 2020 as massive deficit aid spending in advanced countries combined with wider trade gaps for medical supplies and plunging demand for oil and travel, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. 
• The IMF's annual External Sector Report showed that the combined current account deficits and surpluses widened to 3.2% of global economic output in 2020 from 2.8% in 2019. 
• These gaps are set to widen further in 2021 to nearly 3.4% of global GDP before narrowing to about 2.5% as budget deficits in the United States and other rich nations decline and trade normalizes.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the first half of Carib Cement’s FY2021, it recorded a 207.6% year over year rise in net profit to $3.09Bn (EPS: $3.63), on the back of a 32.0% increase in revenues. The company attributed the higher revenues to strong domestic demand, and its capacity to supply the local market. 
• The bottom-line was also augmented by effective expense management and the company’s ongoing USD debt repayment policy, which has allowed it to reduce its financial expenses by $30.39Mn. This has also resulted in the company reducing the foreign exchange risk compared with the prior year, evident by the $399.42Mn decline in foreign exchange losses in H1 2021. 
• The company’s performance should continue to improve in the coming months, given the continued buoyancy of the construction sector, which is being driven by government initiated infrastructure projects and the many private sector development initiatives. Furthermore, the planned rollout of 1.4Mn doses of vaccine by September 2021 should bolster confidence and fuel private investments, which bodes well for the construction sector. 
• Caribbean Cement stock price has appreciated by 45.9% since the start of the year to $91.64, and current trades at a P/E ratio of 14.8x earnings. This is below the main market average of 20.3x earnings.

(Source: Company Financials & NCBCM Research)

• For the 6-month period ending June 2021, Jamaica Stock Exchange reported a net profit of $190.42Mn (EPS: $0.27), which was 10.7% lower than the same period last year. This was due to a 3.9% drop in revenues, driven by declines in cess fees and other operating income. 
• The drop in the bottom-line was also influenced by a modest rise in the company’s total expenses which grew YoY by 2.5% ($14.63Mn) owing to higher staff costs, professional fees and property expenses. 
• Despite the H1 falloff in net profit, the JSE realized a level of recovery in Q2 2021, with net profit growing by 32.2% supported by higher fee income and eCampus revenue. 
• JSE believes its performance will continue to be impacted by the global pandemic, as investor confidence remains below pre-COVID-19 levels. Nevertheless, market activity has picked up in 2021, and that should continue aided by new listings and improvements in market confidence and economic activity, particularly if the administration successfully improves the vaccination rate by September as planned. 
• The JSE indicated that it will continue to pursue a strategic path of growth through the promotion of new and existing markets, new product development and the continuous improvement in systems and service delivery to its customers and other stakeholders, which will support medium- to long-term growth. 
• Since the start of the year, the Jamaica Stock Exchange stock price has declined by 11.1% to $17.79, and currently trades at a P/E ratio of 32.3x earnings. This is above the main market financial sector average of 17.0x earnings.

(Source: Company Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Barbados has started to claw its way out of recession, evident by a 5.5% growth in economic activity during the April to June quarter of this year. However, while Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes is maintaining his prediction of a modest growth rate of between 1% and 3% for this year, he said the second quarter growth rate was weaker than expected. 
• At the same time, Haynes, who is hinging a lot of the island’s recovery on the return to a vibrant tourism sector, said vaccination of the population would be a major factor in that process. 
• “As a country, it seems to me it is in the national interest for as many persons as possible to be vaccinated – clearly in terms of taking care of ourselves, but beyond that, I think that if the economy is to rebound quickly we also have to be able to provide some comfort to those who may want to visit here who are vaccinated,” he said. As at July 26^th the country has fully and partially vaccinated 8.58% and 25.93%, respectively (Our World In Data).

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Dominican industrialists reacted to statements by the U.S. State Department on its foreign investment report on the Dominican Republic, which collects complaints from investors who pointed to the country as a destination that has accusations of widespread corruption with requests for bribes. 
• The U.S. report also notes that investors face delays in government payments, poor enforcement of intellectual property rights, bureaucratic hurdles, slow, sometimes biased judicial and administrative processes, atypical customs valuation procedures, and import classification. 
• In response, the president of the Association of Industries (AIRD), Celso Juan Marranzini, said that the investment climate in the country is favourable with a very positive outlook, especially when compared with countries in the region and even with nations of the world. 
• He also noted that the Dominican Republic is a country with a geographical position and an enviable climate and one of the most diversified economies, with very attractive investment opportunities in industry, agribusiness, agriculture, tourism, and free zones, according to Listín Diario. 
• “The current Government has made a great effort to boost economic growth and strengthen the climate of confidence. It has also taken important steps in the fight against corruption and impunity and must continue to move firmly in that direction, and carry out the institutional
  reforms that are pending,” he said.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Emerging markets investors are increasingly concerned about the outlook for economic growth in developing countries and are clinging to high cash levels with scarce plans to deploy funds in the months to come, an HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) poll showed on Thursday. 
• Nonetheless, respondents expected central banks in many emerging markets to continue to raise interest rates. “The feeling among investors is that while the growth outlook is dimmer and inflation is less of a concern than at the beginning of the year, EM countries will continue to hike rates because they are trying to pre-empt Fed tightening and avoid a repeat of the taper tantrum we saw in 2013-2014," Murat Ulgen, global head of EM research at HSBC said. 
• Central banks in Brazil, Russia, Hungary and Mexico, among others, have already hiked rates this year to counter inflation pressures and currency depreciation. Respondents cited the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates and tapering its pandemic bond purchase as the biggest risk for emerging markets, ahead of COVID or higher-than-expected inflation. 
• While the number of respondents holding more than 5% of their portfolio in cash decreased to 45% from 48%, investors willing to keep cash levels unchanged for the next three months stood at six out of ten, the highest in at least a year. Investors also reduced overweight positions in fixed income assets and added to overweight positions in equities and currencies, according to the poll. HSBC conducted the survey between June 8-July 23, asking 124 investors from 119 institutions representing $506 billion of emerging market assets under management.

(Source: Reuters)