Plenty to keep in mind in oil markets today. Expectations that OPEC and its partners will make deeper cuts to crude oil production when they meet next week have essentially evaporated, according to a Bloomberg survey, raising new concerns about the outlook for prices.
In Libya, output has been halted in a key oil field amid clashes between pro-government forces and their rivals.
But any impact that could have on prices has been overshadowed by rising U.S. inventories and after Trump signed the Hong Kong bill, meaning oil prices are a touch lower going into Thursday.
The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is reporting a 15.5% increase in credit extended by deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) to businesses and households for the 12-month period ending September 2019.
Governor, Richard Byles, says this is “broadly consistent” with the level of growth in this area, since the start of the year.
Byles said the continued buoyant growth in DTI credit results from institutions, such as commercial banks, merchant banks, and building societies, reducing lending rates on local currency loans.
Meanwhile, the Deputy Governor, Dr. Wayne Robinson, noted that underlying the overall 15.5% increase in credit is a healthy 17.0% growth in loans to the productive sector, year on year.
Director-General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, says persons falling within the country’s working-age range of 15 to 64 years now stand at 69.7% of the overall population of 2.9Mn.
He says this represents the largest figure ever attained in Jamaica’s history and creates a window of opportunity for the country, often referred to as a demographic dividend.
Henry noted that an increase in the working-age population, relative to dependents, provides Jamaica with a “tremendous opportunity” to boost economic growth.
This, he said, through increased labour force participation and employment, particularly for groups deemed typically under-represented, such as youth, women and persons with disabilities; increased allocation of resources towards savings rather than consumption, as the dependency ratio falls, thereby facilitating investments and growth; and human capital development through the provision of more resources towards strengthening education and health outcomes, “which will contribute to the increased productivity of the labour force”.
Henry said leveraging the benefits associated with the demographic dividend will require several key undertakings.
Early indicators of China’s economic performance don’t look great. They point to a continued slowdown for a seventh straight month, after economic growth was already the slowest in almost three decades in the third quarter.
Bloomberg Economics’ gauge aggregates the earliest data from financial markets and businesses. It shows a worsening picture for trade, sales manager sentiment, and factory prices.
While tensions with the U.S. have eased since the two sides announced talks toward a so-called “phase one” deal last month, South Korean exports — a renowned indicator for trade flows in Asia — still contracted almost 10% in the first 20 days of November.
That’s an improvement from September’s worst result in a decade, but it indicates that high-technology trade across the region is still struggling as the Christmas shopping season approaches. The faster fall in the prices of goods from Chinese factories in November also indicates that domestic demand is weak. If those deflationary effects continue, it will further hurt corporate profits at home.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor, Richard Byles, has announced plans to implement a new foreign exchange trading platform in 2020.
Byles explained that the new platform will enable foreign exchange traders, both buyers, and sellers, to see all of the bids on daily offers, noting that it is designed to create “a lot more transparency in the market”.
Barita Investments Limited (BIL) has advised that BIL has acquired a five percent (5%) stake in Proven Investments Limited valued at 9,864,233.39 effective November 25, 2019
Downward rating pressures will persist in 2020 for Latin American sovereigns, Fitch Ratings says, with seven of 19 on Negative Outlook compared with five (plus one on Rating Watch Negative) at end-2018.
Despite our expectations for a mild economic recovery (from a low base) for the region as a whole, fiscal, political and governability risks will continue to challenge economic and rating outlooks.
Latin America includes the highest number of Negative Sovereign Outlooks among the world's regions. It has been challenged by persistent lackluster growth over recent years and risks to the downside are likely to persist into 2020.
External challenges remain significant. The slowdown in the global economy will restrain the modest recovery forecast next year while several Latin American economies will be exposed in the event of a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute. Notably, previously faster-growing economies, such as Chile and Peru, have also been slowing. Latin America is forecast to remain the weakest-growing emerging market region in 2020.
Chinese and U.S. top trade negotiators held another phone call this morning Beijing time in which consensus was reached on properly resolving issues holding up the phase-one trade deal, according to a Chinese Ministry of Commerce statement.
Should they fail to reach an agreement by Dec. 15, President Donald Trump will have to decide whether to carry out his threat of further tariffs on the Asian nation.
Market reaction to the statement has been muted, with Rabobank strategists including Richard McGuire writing that markets now view positive announcements with “healthy skepticism given how long this has dragged out.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled interest rates would probably remain on hold, saying that he sees “the glass as much more than half full.”
He restated his well-worn caveat that interest rates are not on a preset course, and the Fed would adjust if there were a “material” change to its outlook.
Investors and economists meanwhile are touting a further steepening of the yield curve in their hot 2020 trades for Wall Street.
The Ministry of Tourism will be spending $66 million over the next three years to strengthen and expand Health and Wellness Tourism in Jamaica.
Portfolio Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, in making the announcement, said that health and wellness tourism is a growing market internationally and Jamaica is uniquely poised to capitalize on the industry.
He said research has shown that health tourism represents one of the fastest-growing travel segments, with a 12 percent expansion each year, and Jamaica has much to contribute to all facets of that sector. He also noted that policies and strategies are being developed through the Tourism Linkages Network to enhance Jamaica’s health and wellness products.
Minister Bartlett was speaking at the inaugural Jamaica Health and Wellness Tourism Conference at the Montego Bay Convention Centre on Wednesday.
