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Fed Likely to Keep Rate Unchanged Published: 26 November 2019

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled interest rates would probably remain on hold, saying that he sees “the glass as much more than half full.”
  • He restated his well-worn caveat that interest rates are not on a preset course, and the Fed would adjust if there were a “material” change to its outlook.
  • Investors and economists meanwhile are touting a further steepening of the yield curve in their hot 2020 trades for Wall Street. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

Gov’t Pumping $66 Million into Health and Wellness Tourism Published: 22 November 2019

  • The Ministry of Tourism will be spending $66 million over the next three years to strengthen and expand Health and Wellness Tourism in Jamaica.
  • Portfolio Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, in making the announcement, said that health and wellness tourism is a growing market internationally and Jamaica is uniquely poised to capitalize on the industry.
  • He said research has shown that health tourism represents one of the fastest-growing travel segments, with a 12 percent expansion each year, and Jamaica has much to contribute to all facets of that sector. He also noted that policies and strategies are being developed through the Tourism Linkages Network to enhance Jamaica’s health and wellness products.
  • Minister Bartlett was speaking at the inaugural Jamaica Health and Wellness Tourism Conference at the Montego Bay Convention Centre on Wednesday.

(Source: JIS)

Increase in Net Remittance Inflows Published: 22 November 2019

  • Net remittance inflows for the period January to August of US$1,407.5Mn increased by 1.4 percent or US$19.8Mn relative to the previous corresponding period.
  • The increase reflected an increase of 2.3 percent or US$35.6Mn in remittance inflows partially offset by an increase of 9.8 percent or US$15.9Mn in outflows. The increase in inflows was mainly attributable to an increase of 15.9 percent in Other Remittances while Remittance Companies remained relatively flat.
  • The largest source market of remittances to Jamaica in August 2019 remained the USA, whose share increased to 64.9 percent, from 63.7 percent recorded August 2018. The remaining share of remittances for August 2019 came from Canada at 12.5 percent, followed by the UK and the Cayman Islands at 10.4 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
  • Overall, the January to August 2019 period had remittance inflows totaling US$1585.4Mn.

(Source: BOJ)

Bahamas Ballooning Deficit Means Government Needs to Borrow $507Mn Published: 22 November 2019

  • The country’s deficit for the fiscal year has ballooned to $677.5Mn because of Hurricane Dorian, prompting the government’s plans to borrow $507.9Mn to meet the shortfall.
  • Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Peter Turnquest said in the house of assembly yesterday that he will table resolutions for the borrowing in two weeks along with a supplementary budget to address expenditures and revenue losses associated with Dorian’s passage.
  • The government initially projected a deficit increase of $430Mn.

(Source: The Tribune)

R-E-S-P-E-C-T Published: 22 November 2019

  • In his first comments on a partial trade deal with the U.S., President Xi Jinping said Beijing wanted to work toward a phase-one agreement on the “basis of mutual respect and equality.” 
  • Xi added that though his nation neither initiated nor coveted a trade war, China would fight back when necessary.
  • Vice Premier Liu He, the country’s top trade negotiator wrote a lengthy op-ed in the Communist Party’s flagship People’s Daily highlighting the key role for the market and non-state players-- perhaps an attempt to address one of America’s long-standing criticisms of the country’s economic model. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

PMI Day Published: 22 November 2019

  • While there was some sign of improvement in Germany’s ravaged manufacturing sector, this morning’s purchasing managers data for the euro area pointed to continued stagnation in the region’s economy.
  • French manufacturing was one highlight, rising to 51.6 for the month, ahead of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
  • There were no bright spots in a dismal report for the U.K. that showed the economy’s performance was the worst since July 2016with manufacturing and services PMI both coming in below 50 and below expectations.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Growth Estimated at 0.3% for July to Sept. Quarter Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 0.3% for the July to September 2019 quarter, relative to the corresponding period last year.
  • Speaking at the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing at the Institute’s head office in New Kingston on Tuesday (November 19), Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, said this represents the 19th consecutive quarter of economic growth that the country has recorded.
  • Henry said the out-turn for the September 2019 quarter was driven by an estimated 1.2% growth in the services industry, despite a 2.1% contraction in the goods-producing industry.
  • He noted that all services group subindustries grew, led by Finance and Insurance Services, which recorded the biggest out-turn across all sectors – 3%.
  • “The projected out-turn largely reflected the positive impact of increased domestic demand, pushed by record levels of employment, increased consumer and business confidence levels, which spurred investment and consumer demand, and continued stability in the macroeconomic environment. This augured well for the business environment,” the PIOJ Head noted.

(Source: JIS)

Policy Rate Remains Unchanged- BOJ Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has held the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% per annum effective November 20, 2019.
  • Similar to the policy decision made in September, BOJ’s decision to hold the policy rate constant was based on its assessment that monetary conditions are still conducive to the achievement of the inflation target of 4.0% to 6.0% over the next eight quarters.
  • The BOJ also assured the public that it is committed to closely monitoring the impact of the previously implemented monetary policy measures as well as overall economic activity and the impacts on inflation, to determine the appropriate future path for the policy rate.

(Source: BOJ)

Recession To Continue In T&T As Energy Prices Remain Subdued Published: 21 November 2019

  • Economic activity will contract in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) as low prices discourage investment in T&T’s sizeable energy industry.
  • In addition, T&T’s overvalued exchange rate will cap consumption and limit investment in the non-energy sector, restricting T&T’s medium-term growth outlook
  • Fitch Solutions have revised down T&T’s real GDP forecast for 2019 from 1.3% y-o-y growth to 0.1% contraction and for 2020 from 1.4% growth to 0.4%.

(Source: Fitch)

Mood Sours Between China and US Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Congressional bill in support of demonstrators in Hong Kong that's expected to be signed by President Donald Trump is renewing market worries that the confrontation may scuttle the phase-one trade deal. 
  • Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said that both sides continue to work towards an agreement, with the country’s chief negotiator Vice Premier Liu He saying that he is “cautiously optimistic.”
  • The Wall Street Journal this morning reported that U.S. negotiators have been invited to Beijing for more talks. 

(Source: Bloomberg)