Mexico's economy appears on track to contract in the first quarter, entering a technical recession, according to analysts, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs wreak havoc on growth that was already weakening.
During the final months of 2024, Mexico had its first quarterly GDP slump since the pandemic. A first-quarter contraction would mark a technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of negative growth. Trump's tariff threats pile pain on Mexico after a devastating drought last year. Investors were also worried about a controversial judicial overhaul and unchecked congressional power of the ruling Morena party.
A technical recession would likely reignite pressure for a fiscal reform. Sheinbaum has said Mexico does not need significant reform, even as she wrestles with how to maintain current levels of welfare while the economy sputters.
Last week, Trump imposed 25.0% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada, then offered a month-long reprieve on goods that comply with the USMCA, a regional trade agreement. Sheinbaum has said she expects exports under the USMCA to remain exempt from tariffs. Around half of Mexican exports to the U.S. are USMCA-compliant and the government aims to boost that to between 85.0% and 90.0%, according to Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard.
Mexico’s GDP contracted at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% rate in the fourth quarter and full-year growth was 1.2%, reflecting a worsening economic picture even before Trump's arrival. In February, Mexico's central bank halved its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 0.6% from a previous 1.2%, although the Finance Ministry has maintained its forecast of 2% to 3% growth.
The outlook on tariffs remained unclear. Trump's frequent shifts on tariffs have exasperated negotiating teams in Mexico and Canada, leaving businesses in limbo. Economists that participate in Reuters surveys have warned of an increased risk of recession for the U.S., Mexico and Canada given the uncertain future of USMCA.
Industrial production in Brazil remained unchanged in January from December, government statistics agency IBGE said on Tuesday, undershooting market forecasts as indicators continue to signal a slowdown in the local economy.
The January figure follows three consecutive months of negative readings as Brazil's industry grapples with high interest rates, with the sector having lost steam in recent months despite an overall strong 2024. Economists polled by Reuters expected a 0.5% month-on-month expansion in January.
Production rose in three of the four main categories surveyed by IBGE, with capital goods standing out after drops in the previous two months, but a fall in intermediate goods output weighed on the overall index.
Industrial production in January grew 1.4% on a yearly basis. But markets expected a 2.3% expansion, according to the Reuters poll.
Brazil's benchmark interest rate currently stands at 13.25% and the central bank has already pencilled in an additional hike of 100 basis points for its meeting later this month as it seeks to tame rising inflation. Policymakers have closely watched moderation signs but noted that it was still too early to establish a clear slowdown trend.
With each day, evidence is mounting across the corporate world that the chaotic implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs is translating into caution on Main Street. The uncertainty brought by Trump's threats of tariffs and his shape-shifting trade policies is starting to have a chilling effect across many industries, businesses warn, as consumers pull back on everything from basic goods to travel.
The president's back-and-forth tariff moves against major trading partners have kept markets on edge, and prompted companies to warn they may have to raise prices, which could boost inflation and dent economic growth. The White House fired another salvo on Tuesday, when Trump said he would double the planned tariff on all steel and aluminium imports from Canada to 50%
While Trump has said his policies could cause short-term pain, investor concerns about their economic fallout have intensified in the last two days. Those worries have translated into a market selloff that has wiped out nearly $5 trillion in market value from the S&P 500's peak last month when Wall Street was cheering much of Trump's agenda.
Even as markets have stumbled, CEOs have largely refrained from publicly criticizing Trump's trade policies, instead citing "uncertainty" for ebbing confidence. Several of Trump's economic advisers have alternated between downplaying the market's concerns and stressing the need to reorient the economy toward domestic manufacturing, even if it causes near-term damage.
Britain will not impose retaliatory trade tariffs in response to U.S. duties on all steel and aluminium imports which are due to come into force on Wednesday, a British government official said on Tuesday.
While the European Union plans to hit back against the 25% US tariffs on imports of the metals, the official – who asked not to be identified – said Britain would continue to engage with the U.S. to secure an exemption.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's official spokesman said on Monday that the UK and the US had a strong economic relationship that was "based on fair and balanced, reciprocal trade." U.S. President Donald Trump said during a visit by Starmer to the White House last month that his administration and Britain would negotiate a trade agreement which could help to avert U.S. tariffs.
The U.S. accounts for about 5% of UK steel exports and 6% of aluminium exports, according to British government data. U.K. steel exports to the United States are worth over 400 million pounds ($518 million) a year, according to industry body UK Steel which has said the introduction of U.S. tariffs "would be a devastating blow to our industry".
With inflation anchored within the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) target range, Fitch Connect forecasts that the Central Bank will lower the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.25% by December 2025. This reflects an upward revision from Fitch’s previous forecast of Jamaica’s policy rate ending 2025 at 4.50%.
This expectation for loosening monetary policy is supported by consistent decreases in private sector inflation expectations, projected declines in global oil and food prices, stable regulated price schemes, and moderating wage pressures against a soft-ish growth backdrop.
While Fitch expects a reduction in policy rates, the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to rush this process due to U.S. economic policy uncertainty. Instead, rate reductions are expected to resume in Q3 2025 and Q4 2025.
Of note, the BOJ touted positive domestic inflationary developments in their February 2025 decision -where they held rates at 6.0%; however, the uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic environment will likely elicit a more cautious monetary policy posture at the BOJ’s MPC meetings in Q2 2025. This cautious stance will also be supported by the vulnerability of Jamaica’s economy to an appreciating dollar and BOJ’s focus on maintaining foreign exchange stability.
That said, risks to Fitch’s forecast are tilted to the upside, with the possibility of a strong US dollar increasing imported inflation pressures and worse-than-expected weather conditions and storms resulting in supply-side inflationary risk. Should these risks materialise, the BOJ may opt to pursue a relatively tighter monetary policy stance to preserve the recent progress made toward achieving its mandate.
Downside risks to the forecast include weaker-than-expected demand, driving inflation lower than projected, with the potential for softer growth outcomes in the U.S. standing out as a key threat in this regard, given its close ties to Jamaica.
The ordinary shares of MFS Capital Partners Limited (MFS), which trades under the symbol MFS on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), resumed trading last Friday, March 7, 2025.
MFS was suspended at the end of 2024 after failing to submit its audited reports ending June 2024 within a six-month timeline to the market. Listed firms have three months to submit audited financials and an additional three months to rectify the violation.
All outstanding issues that led to the suspension of trading in MFS shares have now been addressed, according to the JSE. These included the submission of its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended June 2024 and 1st Quarter Unaudited Financial Statements for the period ended September 30, 2024.
The Company further agreed in its discussions with the JSE to share a market release on the measures that MFS had put in place to prevent a recurrence of the issues regarding its financial reporting, and this was done and circulated to the market.
In light of the Company’s compliance, MFS has remedied its breaches of JSE’s Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (1) (e) & 4 (2) (e). Dr. Marlene Street Forrest, Managing Director of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, stated that “MFS Capital Partners Limited is now in compliance with the Rules of the JSE, and there is no reason for the shares to remain suspended.
The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority (ABTA), with full support from its key partners: Tamarind Hills Resort and Villas, Caribbean Beach Cottages (Hawksbill, Cocos & Keyonna), Royalton Resorts, and Elite Island Resorts, proudly confirmed the continuation of Condor Airlines’ seasonal service at the 59th edition of ITB Berlin, the largest travel trade show in Europe.
The return of Condor Airlines marks another milestone in Antigua and Barbuda’s efforts to expand its presence in the German-speaking (DACH) market. Following the airline’s resumption of service last year, the destination experienced a 26% increase in arrivals from the DACH market in the first two months.
Year-to-date growth from German-speaking travellers continues to trend positively with a 46% increase in January 2025 compared to the same period last year, with strong forward bookings leading into Antigua Sailing Week.
Colin C. James, CEO of the Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority, reinforced the significance of the Condor partnership, stating, “Antigua and Barbuda have maintained a long-standing relationship with the German-speaking markets. Condor’s return for a second season is a strong testament to the route’s success, particularly in attracting high-end travellers. The demand from this market continues to drive growth in the luxury sector, aligning with our strategy to increase and sustain airlift from Europe.”
Through a series of strategic initiatives, including trade visits, media collaborations, and an extensive cooperative campaign with the airline, we are seeing notable growth from the German-speaking market and broader continental Europe. Our hotel partners are fully supportive of diversifying their target market and recognize the potential in this region.
The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority remains committed to expanding air connectivity and strengthening its position as a sought-after destination for European travellers.
In line with Fitch’s expectations but surprising to the downside of consensus projections, the Brazilian economy effectively stagnated in Q4 with output expanding by just 0.2% on a q-o-q basis (consensus: +0.5%). Strength in preceding quarters, however, helped to keep the y-o-y rate at a reasonably elevated 3.6%, with full-year growth coming in at an impressive 3.4%.
In terms of the underlying breakdown, the consumer was an unexpected source of weakness, with household spending contracting by 1.0% q-o-q (Q3: +1.3%). There were also some adverse developments on the external front, as exports declined by a significant 1.3% (Q3: -0.7%). Fixed investment held up reasonably well (+0.4%) but did slow sharply relative to Q3 (+2.3%), while government spending increased by another hearty 0.6% (Q3: +0.8%).
Today’s data were in line with expectations and as such have minimal implications for projections. Brazil’s GDP growth is forecasted at 2.0% this year, reflecting relatively favourable carryover effects of around 0.5pp, a probable bounce back in consumer spending in Q1 given a still tight (albeit no longer tightening) labour market. The economy should lose considerable momentum over H2, flirting with recession as 10.0% real interest rates leave their mark.
Risks to the Mexican, Canadian and American economies are piling up amid a chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs that has created deep uncertainties for businesses and decision-makers, according to Reuters polls of economists taken this week. U.S. inflation risks, which were already rising, have worsened, leaving the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for several months at least, while for Mexico, Canada and the U.S., recession risks are also mounting, the surveys found.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has threatened 25% tariffs on imports of goods from its two neighbouring trading partners and on Thursday removed them temporarily for a second time in only about six weeks of government.
This has made it nearly impossible to forecast growth, inflation and interest rates well into the future, economists say, even leaving the immediate Bank of Canada rate decision on March 12 - already likely to be nuanced - too difficult to call for some.
Economists at top banks and research institutions spoke of chaos when reached out for forecasts, with many expressing exasperations over Trump's on-again-off-again approach to trade policy. "Given this is so uncertain and that there are new announcements every hour or so, it's kind of unclear what the environment is going to look like. It's hard to deny the risk of a recession has intensified," said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays in New York.
Until now, economists have been loath to entirely factor into their forecasts the Trump administration's volte-face on global trade policy, and the added uncertainty over how the change is being implemented is making forecasting even more difficult. Some are even running dual scenarios, one with tariffs and one without, but without much conviction about which is most likely.
However, nearly every economist - 70 of 74 - polled this week across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico who answered a separate question said the risk of a recession in their respective economy had increased, suggesting the outlook had soured considerably across the continent. The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday U.S. tariffs, if sustained, would have a significant adverse impact on Mexico and Canada.
Former central banker Mark Carney won the race to become leader of Canada's ruling Liberal Party and will succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister, official results showed on Sunday. Carney will take over at a tumultuous time in Canada, which is in the midst of a trade war with longtime ally the United States under President Donald Trump and must hold a general election soon.
Carney, 59, took 86% of votes cast to beat former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in a contest in which just under 152,000 party members voted. "There's someone who's trying to weaken our economy," Carney said of Trump, spurring loud boos at the party gathering. "He's attacking Canadian workers, families, and businesses. We can't let him succeed."
Trudeau announced in January that he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to run a quick contest to replace him. "Make no mistake, this is a nation-defining moment. Democracy is not a given. Freedom is not given. Even Canada is not a given," Trudeau said.
Carney, a political novice, argued that he was best placed to revive the party and to oversee trade negotiations with Trump, who is threatening additional tariffs that could cripple Canada's export-dependent economy. Trudeau has imposed C$30 billion of retaliatory tariffs on the United States in response to tariffs Trump levied on Canada. "My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect," Carney said.
Carney's win marks the first time an outsider with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister. He has said his experience as the first person to serve as the governor of two G7 central banks - Canada and England - meant he was the best candidate to deal with Trump. The prospect of a fresh start for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump's tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, led to a remarkable revival of Liberal fortunes.
