• Jamaica has, this year, recorded the best stopover visitor arrivals figure and foreign exchange earnings for any summer period in the country’s history.
• According to the Tourism Minister, Jamaica recorded 5,000 more visitors than it did in the summer of 2019, which was a record year. Furthermore, total earnings for the period were 20% above 2019.
• At the beginning of 2022, the tourism sector was projected to earn US$3.5Bn and welcome approximately 2.3Mn stopover visitors for the year, to be the Caribbean’s fastest-growing tourist destination. However, considering the outturn to date, projections are now up to 2.6 million projections for stopover visitors, not including cruise passengers, and the projection for earnings is a whopping US$4.2Bn.
• Jamaica is currently tracking ahead of pre-COVID projections, as the country was previously not projected to reach this target until around 2025.
• With this strong performance, the sector continues to be a significant contributor to economic growth, with Jamaica’s economy recording up to five consecutive quarters of growth, thus far.

(Source: JIS News)

• Investment bank JPMorgan slashed its forecast for developing world corporate debt issuance by a third on Monday, the latest sign of the economic pressures poorer countries are now facing.
• The amount of bonds emerging market companies and governments have been able to sell this year has plunged as surging global borrowing costs have left many either unwilling or unable to tap the international markets.
• "We do not anticipate a strong rebound in issuance in the foreseeable future," JPMorgan added, saying that a $260 billion total would be the lowest amount issued by EM firms in a year since 2015.
• Emerging markets have seen one of their biggest ever sell-offs this year as the spike in global inflation, the Ukraine-Russia war and a sharp slowdown in China's economy have all taken their toll on sentiment.
• Emerging market governments meanwhile have sold a combined $67.5 billion worth of debt so far this year, down $60.4 billion on last year's total, analysts at Morgan Stanley calculate. Latin America was also cut by 34% to $41 billion.
• It means the next few months will be crucial for those still looking to plug financing caps. Historically, September is one of the busiest of the sovereign debt calendar as finance ministries finalise their annual borrowing and start to look ahead.

(Source: Reuters)

• Trade and Industry Minister Paula Gopee-Scoon is calling on the international community to work together to address the growing issue of illicit trade in Trinidad and Tobago, which erodes legitimate economic activity.
• The Minister explained that several international organisations and agencies have estimated that hundreds of billions of dollars in illicit commerce, including goods, animals and wildlife, weapons and persons, and illicitly traded consumer goods are produced, transported, and sold every year.
• Notably, Trinidad and Tobago, as a small island developing state, has felt the negative effects of the global investment downturn but remains committed to resetting the economy for growth and transformation. This resolve undoubtedly includes taking a firm stance and deliberate, effective action against illicit trade in all of its forms.
• According to the local private sector, the minister said approximately 22% of imported alcohol was entering Trinidad and Tobago illicitly. Illicit trade does not benefit an economy, rather it threatens the existence of small and medium enterprises apart from depriving the government of revenues for public services. Consequently, Gopee-Scoon emphasised that 'due to the globalised nature of illicit trade, information sharing and cooperation among international bodies and countries is necessary'.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• Britain's economy grew by less than expected in July, raising the risk that it is already in a recession, with the sharp climb in energy tariffs hurting demand for electricity and a leap in the cost of materials hitting the construction sector.
• In the three months to July, GDP was flat compared with the previous three-month. Some economists said Monday's data suggested the economy might be on course to shrink in the July-September period having contracted by 0.1% in the April-June quarter. "This would mean that the UK enters a technical recession for the first time since lockdown restrictions ended," Jake Finney, an economist at PwC, said.
• In August, the Bank of England forecast a recession for the world's fifth-biggest economy lasting from the end of 2022 until early 2024, due in large part to the hit to living standards from energy prices, pushed up by the war in Ukraine.
• But last week Liz Truss announced a cap on domestic energy tariffs which - along with an expected round of tax cuts - reduced the risk of such a protracted hit to the economy, albeit at a cost of 100Bn pounds (US$116Bn) further pressuring Britain's already stretched public finances.

(Source: Reuters)

• Lower gas prices are raising optimism that inflation is on the decline, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve. Respondents to the central bank’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated they expect the annual inflation rate to be 5.7% a year from now. That’s a decline from 6.2% in July and the lowest level since October 2021.
• Three-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.8% in August from 3.2% the previous month. That was tied for the lowest level for that measure since November 2020.
• The lowered outlook came amid a tumble in gasoline prices from more than $5 a gallon earlier in the summer, a nominal record high. The current national average is about $3.71 a gallon, still well above the price from a year ago, but about a 26-cent decline from the same point in August.
• Those numbers come as the Fed is using a series of aggressive interest rate hikes to battle inflation that is still running close to a more than 40-year high. The central bank is widely expected to approve a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase when it meets again next week.

(Source: CNBC)

• Fitch Solutions forecasts that Jamaica’s current account deficit will grow to 4.2% of GDP in 2022, before shrinking to 2.8% in 2023. Jamaica recorded a current account deficit of USD333.0Bn in Q122, up from USD50.6Bn in Q121, as a wide goods trade deficit offset a recovery in services exports and strong remittance inflows.
• In the year through March 2022, goods imports have already grown 48.0%, strongly outpacing the 5.0% contraction in exports. Import growth thus far in 2022 has been driven by fuels, consumer goods, and food, all of which have become increasingly expensive due to elevated global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions, which particularly affect an island economy like Jamaica.
• Fitch expects the goods trade deficit will remain elevated through 2022, due to weaker mining exports and high import costs which will lead to import growth of 33.0% y-o-y. 
• Moving into 2023, it is expected that further recovery in the service industry, lower commodity prices and robust remittances will narrow the overall deficit.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Preliminary estimates for the second quarter of 2022 (April-June), show domestic crop production growing to 219,667 tonnes, an increase of 7.4% over the corresponding quarter of 2021. This is also an increase over the January to March quarter of 2022, by 3.6%.
• The main crop groups showing increases in the quarter were yams, which grew by 16.5%, plantains by 11.7%, cereals (sweet and regular corn) 11%, vegetables by 10.3%, and potatoes 4.8%.
• The top contributors to production remain the central parishes, with St. Elizabeth contributing 40,889.5 tonnes to the total national production volume, followed by 31,870.3 tonnes from Trelawny.
• The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries is undergoing a national campaign to improve Jamaica’s access to sufficient quantities of affordable, nutritious, safe and fresh local produce. The aim is to reduce the country’s food imports, provide jobs, build livelihoods and make a significant contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

(Source: JIS)

• Peru's finance ministry on Thursday unveiled an economic package it says can help lift the economy at times of a global slowdown and falling copper prices, which are key to the country's economy.
• Finance Minister Kurt Burneo said the measures could boost gross domestic product growth by 0.6% this year and by 0.8% in 2023.
• The announcement comes just weeks after Peru's finance ministry announced economic growth projections that exceeded analysts’ consensus. The ministry expects GDP growth of 3.3% this year, while analysts polled by Refinitiv forecast 2.6%. While the sovereign is expected to grow, economic and fiscal performance will be impacted by the fall in copper prices.  Peru is the world's Number 2 copper producer and falling prices of the red metal are hitting tax coffers after record revenue in 2021.
• The cost of the incentive package, much of which still needs to be approved by Congress, totals 3 billion soles, Burneo said. The package includes incentives for private investors, including in mining exploration, as well as heavier public spending.
• Peruvian President Pedro Castillo came to office last year with a far-left platform that spooked investors and sent the country's sol currency to record lows. However, he has since moderated his stance and picked moderates for the key finance ministry in a bid to maintain trust with investors.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil producers in Guyana are boosting exports to European buyers seeking alternatives to Russian crude, according to vessel monitoring data.
• Government bans on Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine have spurred demand for alternative crudes, and Guyanese oil fits refiners from Britain to Italy better than rival Latin American grades do.
• So far this year, 49% of Guyana's total oil exports have headed for Europe, up from 16% in 2021. Cargoes to Europe averaged 110,000 bpd from January through early September, according to Refinitiv Eikon tanker tracking data, more than the entire daily volume shipped to all destinations in 2021.
• On Thursday, Hess CEO John Hess told investors that Guyana wants "to move forward as expeditiously as possible." A development plan for the consortium's fifth project, Uaru, will be submitted for government approval later this year, he said.
• Guyana is now producing two crudes: a medium to light sweet oil called Liza, and an even lighter grade called Unity Gold. By 2027, the Exxon-led consortium, which only in 2019 inaugurated output, expects to pump 1.2Mn bpd. Guyana is expected to schedule an auction of oil and gas soon.
• The increased demand for the country’s oil will continue to benefit the country’s revenue stream and contribute to overall economic growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Inflation in Canada is increasingly broad-based and risks are becoming entrenched, a senior Bank of Canada official said on Thursday, warning of "bumps along the way" in the fight against raging price increases.
• Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, speaking the day after the central bank increased its policy rate to a 14-year high of 3.25%, said Governing Council had discussed "the ongoing risk that inflation becomes entrenched" ahead of its decision. "The Canadian economy continues to operate in excess demand, despite the recent pullback in housing, and inflationary pressures are increasingly broad-based," Rogers said.
• She reiterated interest rates needed to rise further without specifying how many more increases were to come. "Getting inflation back to 2% will take some time. We also know there could be bumps along the way," she told a business audience in Calgary, Alberta.

(Source: Reuters)