• Strengthening investment, private consumption, and government consumption will fuel Saint Kitts and Nevis' economy to grow by 2.9% in 2023 from an estimated 6.9% expansion in 2022, according to Fitch Solutions.
• Investments are expected to rise by 2.5% in 2023 from an estimated 7.5% expansion in 2022. Government consumption will grow by 0.7% while private consumption will increase by 0.4%, compared to estimated growth of 4.3% and 3.7% in 2022, respectively. Net exports will contract by 3.0% after contracting by 5.3% in 2022.
• Further to this, Saint Kitts and Nevis' real GDP will rise by 2.5% in 2024 as investment, private consumption, and government consumption bolster domestic demand. Investment will increase by 1.7% in 2024, below its 3.3% average growth since 2013. Private consumption will grow by 0.3%, while government consumption will grow by 0.2%. Net exports will contract by 3.1% in 2024.
• That being said, its economy will grow slower than the Caribbean's average of 6.3% over the next decade. Investments will drive the economy's 0.5% average expansion over the next decade.
• Fitch expects investment, which accounted for 28.3% of GDP in 2022, will average 1.2% over the next decade. This will offset contractions in government consumption, private consumption and net exports.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Consumer prices in the U.S. rose unexpectedly in November, driven by increases in rents, healthcare, and motor vehicle insurance. The decline in gasoline prices was offset by other factors, contributing to a 0.1% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• Prices for used cars and trucks rebounded, boosting underlying inflation. The report also highlighted a rise in healthcare costs and services inflation, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Despite a decline in apparel prices, overall inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
• The unexpected inflation readings, coupled with positive job market data, suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to consider early interest rate cuts in the near future. The Fed is expected to maintain its current policy tightening stance, with rates raised by 525 basis points since March 2022.
• While some economic indicators show a continuation of inflation, there are signs that inflation expectations among consumers are softening. Economists expect cooler inflation readings next year; however, uncertainties remain, impacting market expectations and potential challenges for President Joe Biden's approval ratings and reelection prospects in 2024.

(Source: Reuters)

• Over 100 countries at COP28 in Dubai agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a crucial step in meeting the Paris Agreement's climate goals. The target aims to achieve a global renewable energy capacity of at least 11,000 gigawatts in six years, exceeding current projections by over 20%.
• The industry faces obstacles such as permitting, leases, and grid connections, which concerns raised about the feasibility of rapidly increasing solar and wind power deployments.
• Shortages in supplies and labour, rising project costs, and local opposition to large energy projects contribute to the strain in the renewables sector.
• To achieve the 2030 target, a sustained growth rate of 17% annually is required, necessitating more than doubling the annual investment in renewables to over $1.2 trillion by 2030.
• Infrastructure investors have reduced funding due to higher interest rates, highlighting the importance of continued government support and discussions on overcoming barriers in permitting, grid development, and auctions after COP28.

(Source: Reuters)

• JMMB Group Limited is looking into a partnership with the private sector financing arm of the Inter-American Development Bank, IDB Invest.
• In a release, the financial group says the funding partnership being considered could provide financing of up to US$100Mn. This would be used to support JMMB's funding pipeline for micro, small and medium sized enterprises, including women-led initiatives.
• JMMB is also looking to use the money to develop and grow a green loan portfolio in Jamaica. The funding would also support its digitalisation strategy.
• Notably, the actual completion of the transaction is contingent upon various factors, including but not limited to market conditions, authorisations and approvals, and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

 (Source: RJR News)

• iCreate Limited (“iCreate”) has announced that a Meeting of the Board of Directors for consideration of the Spin-Off of iCreate’s shares in Visual Vibe.Com Limited (“Visual Vibe”) is scheduled for Tuesday, December 19, 2023, at 11:00 a.m.
• Upon consideration and approval by the Board of Directors, an Extraordinary General Meeting (“EGM”) will be convened for the shareholders to consider and if thought fit, pass the resolution approving the issue or transfer of iCreate’s shares in Visual Vibe to be held by the shareholders of iCreate, pro rata to their existing shareholdings.

(Source: JSE)

• Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro will meet with Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali on Thursday, December 14, 2023, amid a territorial dispute between the two countries, according to a letter from the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
• The announcement of the bilateral meeting came after Maduro spoke with Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, who also serves as president pro tempore of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday.
• Tensions have been mounting between Venezuela and Guyana in recent weeks due to a long-running border dispute over Esequibo, an area in Guyana where massive discoveries of offshore oil and gas have been made.
• Venezuela's government said the meeting "is in order to preserve our aspiration to maintain Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace."
• The Office of the President of Guyana confirmed Ali had agreed to the meeting but added, "Guyana's land boundary is not up for discussion."

(Source: Reuters)

• Recent data underscores the strength of the labour market, with a 4% annual increase in wages. Despite a slower pace of pay growth, the rate remains above the 3% threshold considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
• The growth in labour supply, marked by half a million more individuals engaged in employment or job-seeking, plays a crucial role in supporting economic expansion. Additionally, improvements in worker productivity and a decrease in average working hours have led to a decline in labour costs per unit of output.
• The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act, hoping for a "soft landing" where inflation slows without triggering a recession. Despite concerns about high interest rates impacting consumer borrowing, ongoing job creation and rising wages contribute to increased consumer spending.
• However, there are expectations of a potential slowdown in spending in 2024 as pandemic savings diminish. The Fed remains vigilant about the sustainability of these positive economic dynamics in the face of changing conditions.

(Source: Reuters)

• New research from the Chicago Federal Reserve highlights a significant disconnect between the performance of the U.S. economy and public attitudes, emerging in the spring of 2020 due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• In the post-pandemic years, there has been a notable decrease in the average level of optimism regarding economic outcomes. Traditional correlations between indicators like consumer and small business sentiment, tied to measures such as unemployment rates and income, have weakened, impacting the economy and politics.
• The link between economic conditions and sentiment appears to have been severed after the pandemic recession. Potential reasons include the persistence of higher price levels, the normalisation of lower unemployment rates, and the impact of the pandemic's shock on public expectations about the economy.
• The American Psychological Association (APA) identifies a "collective trauma" affecting the nation, rooted in the COVID-19 pandemic, global conflicts, racism, racial injustice, inflation, and climate-related disasters. Survey responses reveal health, money, and the economy as significant stressors, with a notable increase in concerns about the economy since 2019, particularly among younger age groups.
• Despite recent improvements in sentiment, challenges persist. Younger demographics, critical for the economy and elections, express heightened economic concerns. Policymakers and politicians face the task of positively shifting the economic mood in the coming months, especially if inflation continues to fall alongside weaker wage and job growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• The multimillion-dollar fraud at Jamaican investment firm Stocks and Securities Limited (SSL) has exceeded some US $30 million and impacted over 200 accounts. The Financial Investigations Division, which is involved in the investigation, said inquiries extend beyond Jamaica.
• “Evidence now shows that there are over 200 affected accounts and a staggering amount exceeding US$30 million attributed to fraud and other irregularities related to clients’ funds. Despite numerous appeals and direct means of communication, the Financial Investigations Division (FID) has only received 23 official statements from affected individuals and entities,” FID said in a statement. So far, only one person, Jean Ann Panton, has been charged concerning the fraud. She appeared again in court on December 6^th and was remanded until May 27, 2024.
• Panton was indicted for three counts of larceny as a servant, three counts of falsification of accounts, five counts of forgery, five counts of uttering forged documents, three counts of engaging in transactions involving stolen property, and three counts of breaches of the Cybercrimes Act. Panton is accused of fleecing roughly $3 billion from more than 30 SSL clients over 10 years.
• FID also highlighted the complexity of the investigation, as it involves a comprehensive examination of the company’s activities dating back to the inception of SSL in 2006. “The meticulous inquiry requires a thorough analysis of the entire period, scrutinising the flow of investor funds. This process, by its nature, is time-consuming and deliberate,” they said.
• So far, the investigation has revealed criminal breaches involving the company and people associated with it. “The investigative process is far advanced and we are now at the point where a file is currently with the prosecutors who are reviewing the evidential material with a view to discerning the possible charges,” the FID added.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Consumers have been advised to brace for disruptions in domestic food supplies, especially for vegetables, consequent on the impact of heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone 22. Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, indicated this during a statement to the House of Representatives on Tuesday (December 5).
• “In the short term, we anticipate disruptions to our food supplies, especially on our vegetable lines. The reality is that our vegetable farmers started the year in drought and would have finished the year in extensive floods,” Mr. Green said. “As such, we do expect that there would be a downturn in supply, which often gives rise to an increase in prices. The aftermath of this disaster has also delayed land preparation and replanting by up to three weeks in the affected areas, exacerbating the challenges faced by our farmers,” he added.
• A total of 410 hectares of crops, including vegetables, fruits, and condiments, were lost. Significant livestock losses included 160,500 broilers, 1,460 layers, 70 pigs, 34 sheep, and 47 goats. There has also been a significant impact on infrastructure, including farm roads, especially in St. Thomas and East Rural St. Andrew. Irrigation systems for farmers in these communities were also impacted.
• “The damage assessment reveals that crop losses were significant, amounting to approximately $173 million, impacting over 2,000 farmers. Livestock losses stand at roughly $26 million, affecting 550 farmers, while infrastructure damage accounts for an estimated $64 million, which [was] predominantly in farm road damage. The total estimated loss by the agriculture sector amounts to $274,096,917,” the Minister stated.
• Green assured, however, that the Government is ready to assist farmers through difficult times. “In total, the Government is providing $157 million to help our farmers recover and recover quickly,” the Minister stated.
• He noted that the Government’s strategic approach involves prioritising the rehabilitation of farm roads to ensure accessibility for farmers and the transportation of produce. Mr. Green pointed out that the substantial allocation for crop recovery aims to support farmers in replanting and revitalising their agricultural activities.

(Source: JIS)