• The Dominican Republic’s fiscal deficit is expected to be reduced from 2.7% to 2.3% of the gross GDP during the period 2021-2026. 
• However, the country needs more fiscal space for health services, social safety nets, public investments, the accumulation of reserves against natural disasters and to ensure a descending debt trajectory. Consequently, the World Bank plans to invest US$1.8Bn in development projects. 
• Notably, on the heels of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dominican Republic Government created an economic and social aid plan to help the population cope with the economic crisis that was aggravated by the war between Russia and Ukraine. 
• The set of measures aimed at reducing the impact on citizens’ out-of-pocket spending has consumed more than 11.0 billion pesos in the first four months of 2022. Considering that 15.0Bn pesos was spent in all of 2021 according to the Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development (MEPyD), the spend for 2022 is on track to be higher. 
• Despite the variation in the pace of public spending, the Minister of Economy, Ceara Hatton, has stated that the development of the budget execution has been satisfactory and that the fiscal balance continues to be positive.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The International Monetary Fund says the country’s recovery is “strong” with real GDP growth pegged at 8% this year.
• The fund, in its Article IV Consultation Report for The Bahamas, said: “The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. The economy expanded by almost 14% in 2021, as net tourism receipts tripled relative to 2020. The strong recovery is expected to continue in 2022, with real GDP growth projected at 8%. The war in Ukraine, which adds considerable uncertainty to the outlook, is expected to affect The Bahamas primarily through higher commodity prices.” 
• The fund also said that, despite the phenomenal growth, it would take until 2024 before the country would be able to return to the pre-pandemic levels of GDP of 2019. “The economy contracted by almost 24% in 2020, as tourism receipts fell by more than 75%. Starting in the second half of 2021, air arrivals saw a steep rebound, recovering to half of 2019 levels 2021, while cruise arrivals, which were initially more subdued, have recently picked up.” 
• Coupled with a rebound in construction activity, output expanded by around 14% in 2021. Labour market conditions are improving, but remain challenging, with unemployment estimated at around 18% at the end of 2021 compared to over 25% in 2020. 
• However, risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary — and potentially BOP (balance of payments) — pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters. Additionally, the pandemic will likely exacerbate The Bahamas’ long-standing record of low growth. Staff projects medium-term potential growth at just 1.5%, owing to the slow structural reform implementation, including in the energy sector.

(Source: The Tribune)

• Eurozone government bond yields rose on Wednesday after data showing a bigger-than-expected rise in inflation last month in the United States. 
• Data showing U.S. annual inflation rose 8.3% in April, down from 8.5% a month earlier, but above analyst expectations for an 8.1% rise, triggered a wave of selling in bonds. 
• Germany's 10-year Bond yield was last up 1.5 basis points on the day at 1.018%, having fallen just below 1%, its lowest level in almost a week earlier. 
• "I think it is natural to see yields rising after a strong core CPI like we had," said Peter McCallum, rates strategist at Mizuho. But capping the yields rally is a 75 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve, which seems out of sight at this point, McCallum added. "I think there's enough that the market can look at in that report to not necessarily price too much more hawkishness from the Fed," he said. 
• Earlier in the session, yields across the currency bloc fell to their lowest levels in almost a week, with investors taking comfort from signs that any tightening in European Central Bank monetary policy will be gradual. 
• The ECB is likely to end its bond-buying stimulus programme early in the third quarter, followed by a rate hike that could come just "a few weeks" later, ECB President Christine Lagarde said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England will probably need to raise interest rates much more sharply than financial markets expect to get soaring inflation under control, former policymakers said on Wednesday. 
• The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised its key interest rate four times since December to 1% - the highest level since 2009 - but still expects inflation to exceed 10% by the end of this year. 
• "In my view the nominal interest rate - the short-term interest rate the MPC controls - will have to go up at least 250 to 300 basis points from here," Adam Posen, who served on the MPC from 2009 to 2012, told the British parliament's Treasury Committee. 
• That would mean an interest rate of 3.5% to 4% - well above the 2.5% peak priced in by financial markets for June 2023. 
• Posen, who is now the president of Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, said unemployment needed to go higher - effectively requiring a recession - for inflation to fall back swiftly to the BoE's 2% target. 
• Last month the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would see weaker growth and higher inflation than any other major advanced economy next year. 
• While countries globally are suffering from soaring energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Posen said the extra inflation in Britain appeared to be mostly due to Brexit. 
• The BoE's own forecasts imply interest rates might rise less than markets expect, as it predicts inflation will significantly undershoot its 2% target in three years if interest rates follow the path expected by markets. Annual consumer price inflation in Britain hit 7.0% in March, the highest reading in 30 years.

(Source: Reuters)

• The most recent round of earnings releases reflected mixed results for both Edufocal and Salada Foods. Salada Food reported a 21.5% drop in Q2 net profit; however, owing to the strong growth in Q1 (+219.9%), it reported an overall increase of 27.6% in net profit for the first half of its current financial year. Edufocal turned around its net loss into a net profit of $2.04Mn for its Q1 ended March 31, 2022, year over year. 
• Salada's H1 growth reflects a 9.7% growth in revenues as the company increased its promotional efforts to adapt to the opportunities in the fast-changing market environment brought on by the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions.  The Company also launched a line of flavoured coffees in March, under its flagship brand, Jamaica Mountain Peak, which should help with future revenue growth. 
• Similarly, Edufocal saw an increase in earnings due to a 81.3% increase in its revenues as the company saw increased demand for its services. 
• Implementation of cost containment measures also allowed both companies to mitigate some of the effects of higher costs, which facilitated an improvement in their gross margins (+2.3 pp- Salada; +16.7pp- Edufocal).  
• Going forward, we expect future growth in net earnings for Edufocal which should benefit from the additional revenue stream from its recent acquisition of Clever School Teacher, which allowed it to expand its operations to the US, as well as from improved brand visibility after its recent IPO. For Salada, improved profitability above current levels will depend on the company’s ability to penetrate markets with existing and new products, while simultaneously sustaining efforts to contain costs. 
• Edufocal has witnessed a 354.0% appreciation in its stock price year to date; however, Salada’s price has seen a 9.5% decline.  At its present price Edufocal trades at a P/E of 141.6x which is above the Junior Market Sector average of 23.4x. Salada trades at a P/E of 35.2x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 22.3x.

(Source: Company Financials and NCBCM Research)

• Higher occupancy supported by recovery in operating territories bolstered KPREIT’s profitability. The company reported a 14.9% y-o-y increase in net profit for Q1 2022. 
• This was mainly supported by a 12.4% rise in rental income due to higher occupancy levels at its properties in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as increases in rents for some of its properties. The Group achieved near 100% occupancy by the end of the reporting period and continues to benefit from a solid tenant base of primarily entities that offer financial, warehousing and logistics, manufacturing, and government services. 
• In spite of higher operating expenses (+18.5%), the higher revenues had a net positive effect, which resulted in a 2.1p.p rise in the net operating margin. 
• We expect KPREIT’s financial performance to continue to improve as the company uses proceeds from its APO to reduce debt expenses and build new properties to generate more rental income. 
• KPREIT’s stock price has declined by 3.1% since the start of the calendar year to $8.72. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.9x, which is below the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 17.9x. The stock is however currently trading above its net asset value of $7.57.

(Source: Company Financials and NCBCM Research)

• A visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) team for the Seventh Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Review, has been assured that Government, despite battling the economic fall-out from COVID-19, had achieved several macro-economic benchmarks. 
• Acknowledging that adjustments had to be made to the EFF, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs, Ryan Straughn, insisted that the Government was still “very committed to seeing the reform efforts through”. 
• Based on the agreed targets on both sides, Mr. Straughn said he is confident that as the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine rage on, the execution of the government’s capital works programme and private sector investments coming on stream will provide a much needed boost to the economy. 
• The government is also seeking to find a solution to place the debt that has accumulated specifically for COVID-19 on a different trajectory. It is of the view that in order for the country to be able to respond to climate adaptations and other issues, it will need to ensure that the appropriate fiscal space is available so as not to inhibit the normal development trajectory of the country. 
• Mr. Van Selm, the IMF’s Mission Chief for Barbados, noted that with the global increases, especially in fuel prices, during the visit there would be discussions on the macro framework and what other policies would be put in place to shield the populace.

(Source: Barbados Government Information Service)

• US inflation took a breather last month for the first time since August. Prices still increased, but at a slower pace than in previous months. 
• The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had predicted. It was a decrease from the 8.5% recorded in March, which had been the highest level in more than 40 years. 
• Stripping out more volatile product categories like food and energy, the CPI stood at 6.2% over the same period, less than the 6.5% reported in March. 
• For April alone, prices increased by 0.3%, adjusted for seasonal swings, less than the 1.2% jump recorded in March. Without food and energy prices, core inflation rose 0.6%, more than the 0.3% advance in the prior month. 
• The increase in core inflation is making economists nervous. Businesses have been building up their inventories, which helps core inflation on the goods side, while prices in the services sector are soaring as Americans return to traveling and other leisure activities. The latter will likely make for stickier inflation that takes longer to come down again.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. crude oil price settled below $100 a barrel on Tuesday to its lowest level in two weeks as the demand outlook was pressured by coronavirus lockdowns in China and growing recession risks, while a strong dollar made crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies. 
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $3.33, or 3.2%, to $99.76 a barrel, while Brent crude was down $3.48, or 3.28%, at $102.46 a barrel. Both benchmarks were down for a second straight day and fell by more than $4 a barrel earlier on Tuesday. 
• Early in the session, comments from the Saudi and UAE energy ministers boosted Brent and WTI up by more than $1 a barrel. 
• The European Union Commission has delayed acting on the proposal. Unanimity is required to ban oil imports from Russia, and while a French minister said EU members could reach a deal this week, Hungary has dug in its heels opposing an embargo. 
• Also, some European economies could suffer distress if Russian oil imports were curtailed further. If Russia retaliated by cutting off gas supplies, economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia and North Africa might slide back to pre-pandemic levels, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warned.

(Source: Reuters)

• Sagicor outperformed financial sector stocks reporting earnings this season, as the company reported a higher net profit, while QWI reported a drop in earnings and IronRock (ROC) a net loss. Net profit grew by 31.3% for Sagicor’s Q1 2022, fell by 28.7% for QWI’s H1 2022, and dropped 291.7% to a loss of $8.55Mn for ROC’s Q1, year-over-year. 
• Sagicor’s Individual Life insurance segment performed well, while the Employee Benefits segment showed strong recovery, which supported earnings growth despite the softening in asset prices due to global market conditions. QWI’s revenues were however impacted by weaker asset prices as its portfolio took a hit in its second-quarter as the pace of its stock portfolio gains slowed. The effect of the war in Ukraine and turbulence in the USA market resulted in weaker stock portfolio gains. 
• Meanwhile, IronRock has had a difficult Q1 as the pricing of property and motor insurance continues to be an issue, especially as the increase in the rate of inflation is likely to increase the cost of claims. 
• Going forward we expect this trend of a mixture of over-performance and under-performance among financial stocks to continue. A confluence of factors affecting the financial markets, such as withdrawal of all the measures under the Disaster Risk Management Act (DRMA), elevated inflation, rising interest rates, tight liquidity, and still low FX supply, are impacting the various sub-sectors of the financial sector differently. 
• All three stocks have witnessed an appreciation in prices year to date- Sagicor (+0.1%), QWI (+3.9%), and ROC (12.9%). At their present prices, SJ and QWI are currently trading at P/Es below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 13.4x, while ROC is trading above the Junior Market Financial Sector average of 13.3x. However, we expect positive market reaction to Sagicor’s results. As such, the stock price and multiple may rise this week.

(Source: Company Financials and NCBCM)