• Remittance inflows for the first 10 months of 2021 (end of October), totaled approximately US$2.5Bn, relative to US$2.0Bn in 2020. Inflows remained strong despite the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Total remittances for 2020 was US$2.91Bn, 20% higher than 2019. 
• According to the Deputy Governor in charge of Banking, Currency Operations, and Financial Markets, Natalie Haynes, increased remittances have been flowing from Jamaica’s main sources, the United States and United Kingdom. Significant funds have also been received from the Cayman Islands as most persons in the Cayman Islands are sending home their funds in anticipation of returning to Jamaica. 
• Meanwhile, BOJ Governor, Richard Byles, acknowledged that the onset of increased inflation could start to erode the ability of Jamaicans in the diaspora remitting funds. The rate of inflation in the United States climbed to 6.2% as of October 2021, above market forecasts of 5.8% and was the highest in over 30 years. Annual inflation in the United Kingdom climbed to 4.2% in October 2021.

(Source: JIS News)

• Jamaica’s gross international reserves, as at November 17, totaled approximately US$4.7Bn. Governor, Richard Byles, said the figure represents the equivalent of 143.8% of the level considered adequate. Net International Reserves (NIR), at the end of October, totaled US$3.9Bn, and is expected to be stable for the month of November. 
• The Central Bank expects gross reserves will remain healthy supported by a current account deficit, ranging between 1.0% and 3.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is a sustainable level by traditional measures. Expectations for a recovery in tourist arrivals and spending should also help to bolster reserves. 
• The BOJ’s $8.0Bn net open position (NOP) cap, which was temporarily removed in January 2020, will be restored effective December 6, 2021. Net open position, which is used to analyze foreign exchange risk, measures the difference between total assets and total liabilities in foreign currency. However, the cap will be adjusted from the $8.0Bn limit to an asymmetric one, corresponding to a $4.5Bn ceiling for long NOP positions and $7.0Bn for shorter ones. The Central Bank is committed to continuously reviewing these limits annually and amending them if deemed necessary.

(Source: JIS News)

• A new revenue protection framework is expected to go before Cabinet shortly, designed to counter a projected loss of some $300 million in fossil fuel vehicle taxes as the Government drives towards its goal of near 100% renewable energy usage by 2030. 
• Minister of Energy, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Kerri Symmonds also disclosed that his technical officers are working with the Barbados National Oil Company Limited (BNOCL) to devise strategies for switching mechanisms for the commercial introduction and supply of biofuels, an initiative he said, which provides for future investment and economic growth. 
• “We are equally conscious that the replacement of the nation’s fleet of internal combustion vehicles, will cause the Inland Revenue Department to potentially face a loss of $300 million estimated in terms of fuel-related taxes,” Minister Symmonds told delegates at the official opening of the second Barbados Sustainable Energy Conference and Expo 2021 on Monday. 
• He revealed that the studies on alternative taxation mechanisms, which could be deployed in order to compensate for the potential and possible revenue losses that might result from the “broad-based introduction” of renewable energy vehicles in Barbados, have been completed.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Ever since Guyana sold its first 1,000,000 (one million) barrels of crude in February 2020 for GY$11.5 billion, the petroleum industry has raked in as much as GY$440 billion; this represents GY$57 billion more than the national 2021 budget. An analysis done by OilNow shows that since 2016, the burgeoning oil-and-gas sector has contributed more than $50 billion in taxes. 
• Added to that, ExxonMobil Guyana has said that throughout 2020, the sector contributed more than GY$180.39 billion, an equivalent of US$901.95 million, to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 
• Outside of this, oil giant ExxonMobil had said that its Guyana operations between 2015 to present has seen another GY$100.50 billion being expended on the procurement of goods and services from dozens of local businesses. 
• These economic injections are slated to increase exponentially, in keeping with the projected growth of the industry itself. As a matter of fact, a report compiled by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) early this year shows that earnings from Guyana’s oil-and-gas sector could reach US$31 billion (roughly G$6.7 trillion) by 2035.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• British businesses reported the fastest growth in new orders since June this month alongside record cost pressures, according to a closely watched business survey that could pave the way for a Bank of England rate rise in December. 
• The IHS Markit/CIPS flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), published on Tuesday, edged down to 57.7 in November from October's final reading of 57.8. But that still indicated strong growth and was a shade higher than economists' average forecast in a Reuters poll. 
• "A combination of sustained buoyant business growth, further job market gains and record inflationary pressures gives a green light for interest rates to rise in December," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at financial data provider IHS Markit, said.

(Source: Investing.com)

• U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Tuesday amid rising bets for a quicker tightening of Fed’s monetary policy after President Joe Biden tapped Fed-Chair Jerome Powell to lead the central bank for a second term. 
• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose one basis point at 1.634%, not far from a 2021 high of around 1.7760% hit in end-March. Yields are up by more than 7 bps since Powell's news in the previous session. 
• The short-end of the curve was the hardest hit. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was flat at 0.63% after hitting its highest level since early March 2020. 
• U.S. inflation-protected bond yields also rose for a second consecutive session with ten-year yields holding near minus 1%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The IMF has indicated that the availability of pre-COVID-19 buffers built up by the government, coupled with the calibrated policy response through an ambitious reform programme and strengthened oversight of the financial system, ensured the pandemic-related shock was not followed by a fiscal, financial, or balance of payment crisis. 
• The Fund acknowledged that the economy is recovering. Tourism has rebounded to near 70.0% of pre-crisis levels, despite two COVID-19 waves this year, and other sectors have picked up as well. Real GDP in Q2 2021 was 14.2% higher than the same quarter a year earlier. The IMF projects growth of 8.25% in FY2021/22, moderating to 3.5% in FY2022/23.
• However, the risks to the outlook are substantial with COVID-19 being the most significant. A third COVID-19 wave is abating, and vaccination has picked up pace, with one million people now having received at least one dose. But new COVID-19 waves in Jamaica or abroad could lead to a more prolonged disruption of tourism, trade, and capital flows. 
• The uncertain duration of global inflationary pressures poses another risk to the forecast. The sharp rise in world food and energy prices has helped push year-on-year inflation to 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target range of 4-6 percent. Natural disasters continue to be an ever-present risk. On the other hand, a faster pace of vaccinations at home and abatement of the pandemic in Jamaica’s main tourism markets are upside risks. 
• As the crisis recedes and the recovery advances Jamaica should restart debt reduction and rebuild buffers. Importantly, the Fund opined that policies should also focus on boosting growth, which has been low in the last decades, enhancing institutions, and tackling the still high levels of poverty and crime.

(Source: IMF & JIS News)

• As Jamaica’s tourism continues its strong rebound, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says that the sector is projected to surpass pre-pandemic figures by the end of 2024. Total visitor arrivals are estimated to reach 4.5Mn, with gross foreign exchange earnings of US$4.7Bn. 
• Currently, total visitor arrivals are estimated at 3.2Mn by the end of 2022, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.1Mn and stopover arrivals, 2.1Mn, while earnings are projected at US$3.3Bn. Jamaica’s visitor numbers are expected to total 4.1Mn by the end of 2023, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.6Mn, stopover arrivals, 2.5Mn, and earnings of US$4.2Bn. 
• Meanwhile, stopover arrivals year to date stand at 1.2Mn, and since cruise shipping resumed in August, Jamaica has welcomed more than 36,000 cruise passengers, while earnings are at the US$1.5Bn mark. 
• Bartlett noted that Jamaica is well on its way to recovery. He highlighted that the 2021 stopover arrivals are estimated to be up 41.0% year-over-year, and year to date, Jamaica has recouped nearly half of 2019’s stopover business. 
• He noted that December is usually a strong month for the industry and it begins the high season when the rates are higher, so Jamaica will likely meet its forecast of 1.6Mn visitors and over US$2.0Bn in earnings.

(Source: JIS News)

• Following the downgrade by Moody’s on November 12, 2021, Finance Minister, Colm Imbert, said the Government is 'certainly prepared to heed' the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that 'policy attention should focus on reducing public debt levels and rebuilding fiscal buffers,' once the economic recovery is firmly in place. 
• Yesterday afternoon, Imbert suggested that the Government would welcome 'more detailed technical engagement,' on the call by the IMF for the Government to remove restrictions on current international transactions. 
• Those comments came in the third news release from the Ministry of Finance following the publication of the IMF's concluding statement on Friday after its 2021 Article IV consultation with the T& T authorities. 
• The news release was headlined 'The IMF Praises Trinidad and Tobago's Policy Response to COVID-19 and Encourages T&T to Shift its Policy Attention Only When Recovery is in Place'. 
• Regarding the IMF's mission statement that it encouraged the Government 'to modernise foreign exchange and money market infrastructure to reduce inefficiencies and imbalances to support the sustainability of the existing arrangements,' Imbert said: 'We are welcoming any constructive solutions that will, in the end, improve our citizens' lives.'

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The Dominican Republic government is moving forward with the integration of services and other productive sectors with Central American countries. 
• The process is the result of two meetings President Luis Abinader has with his counterparts of the Central American region, specifically Costa Rica and Panama, to work together and take advantage of the post-COVID opportunities since investments of US$3 to US$4.5 trillion are expected to be changing the manufacturing base. 
• Flacquer explained that any country that captures only 0.1% of these investments would triple its exports. 
• The Dominican Republic is the sixth-largest trading partner of the U.S. and, together with Panama and Costa Rica, will become the third, with 20 million inhabitants between the three and whose block will only be surpassed by Brazil and Mexico.

(Source: Dominican Today)