• Minister of and Health Wellness, Dr. the Hon. Christopher Tufton, on Sunday, November 7, announced that almost three weeks ahead of target, Jamaica has administered one million COVID-19 vaccine doses. 
• The Minister, who on Saturday was in Falmouth participating in a house-to-house vaccination tour, said he is heartened by the kind of response the Ministry has been getting from the vaccination blitzes, adding that this is certainly a step in the right direction. 
• Reaching one million doses is a psychologically significant development and it shows that more Jamaicans are coming on board. This milestone indicates that probably 23% to 24% of the targeted population has been fully vaccinated and the government is now moving ahead to get as many persons vaccinated as possible in coming weeks. 
• A key focus is the vaccination of children and the Ministry wants to appeal to parents and guardians to give as much support as possible, especially when the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine is administered to children, to try and get them back into the schools. 
• The Minister also reiterated that following directives from the World Health Organization, booster shots (third doses) will be available for persons with serious illnesses such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and other pre-existing medical conditions. This he said will be given to those who have had the two doses of the Astra Zeneca or Pfizer and in the case of the singular Johnson and Johnson one additional shot.

(Source: JIS News)

• The Central Bank of the Bahamas (CBOB) says inflation has risen to 0.90 percent up from 0.88 percent within the period of June 2020 to June 2021. 
• The bank recently reported that crude oil prices continued to rise this year, following unprecedented lows in 2020, with prices of goods and services rising in most categories to date. 
• According to the central bank's monthly economic and financial developments in September there was a 42.3 percent increase in crude oil prices from January to September this year to B$72.94 a barrel. 
• Consequently, average clothing and shoe prices rose 12.7 percent, despite falling to 8.4 percent last year.  Additionally, miscellaneous goods and services (2.7 percent), food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.3 percent), and housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuels (1.3 percent) recorded an increase in average costs following a year-on-year decline.

(Source: The Central Bank of the Bahamas)

• Remittances and the tourism sector have generated income to the Dominican Republic Government of US$11.9 billion in the first nine months of 2021. 
• According to data from the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD), tourism revenues stood at US$3.8 billion, 90.2% above the January-September 2020 record. 
• Likewise, during the first nine months of the year, remittances reached US$7.9 billion, 34.4% more than in January-September 2020 and 48.5% above the same period of 2019. 
• 85% of the remittances received in the country come from United States, 6.7% Spain, 1.0% Haiti, among others. Official data indicate that since 2010, citizens in the Dominican Republic received a total of US$66.3 billion, 2020 was the year that more remittances were issued to the country. However, 2021 is on pace to exceed it. 
• This strong performance will support IMF’s 9.5% projected growth for 2021. Further, tourism inflows will bolster government revenues and help to narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.4% in 2021 from 8.0% in 2020.

(Source: Dominican Today & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions’ forecast for global growth in 2021 edged lower in November to 5.5% from 5.6% in October, largely on the back of several downward growth revisions to the US (6.0% to 5.6%), Germany (3.7% to 2.8%), Spain (6.8% to 5.0%), Mexico (6.0% to 5.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.0% to 2.8%). 
• These downward revisions were partially offset by upward revisions to several large economies, including France (5.9% to 6.8%), Italy (4.6% to 6.2%), Malaysia (0.0% to 1.5%), Russia (3.4% to 3.8%) and Turkey (6.3% to 8.3%). Fitch’s global growth forecasts for 2021 (5.5%) and 2022 (4.2%) remain slightly below consensus estimates of 5.9% and 4.5% respectively. 
• The latest high frequency and GDP data pointed to a slowdown in economic activity in Q321 due to a combination of less favourable base effects, supply chain-related challenges and new COVID-19 outbreaks, which forced several economies to re-impose partial restrictions. 
• Moreover, the recent increase in energy prices has weighed on output in a number of economies, further curbing growth momentum. The good news is that the latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings show that activity started Q421 on a stronger footing, pointing to a still-strong global economic performance in the last quarter of 2021.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Banks largely eased credit standards for businesses, commercial real estate investors and households in the third quarter of the year, as the U.S. economy weathered the latest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, a Federal Reserve survey reported on Monday. 
• The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, offering evidence of continued momentum for the economy, said banks "generally reported having eased standards" for business loans by lowering rates, expanding credit lines or imposing less restrictive terms. 
• The banks "cited a more favourable or less uncertain economic outlook" as well as more competition among lenders and "an increased tolerance for risk" amid general improvement in markets and the economic outlook, the Fed reported. Demand for loans was also up, particularly among middle-sized and larger firms.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica has been removed by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from its level-four “Avoid Travel to this Destination” risk assessment, which is a very positive development for our tourism sector. 
• The Minister of Tourism commended the health authorities and the people of Jamaica for working to bring down the rates of COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations, which augurs well for Jamaica’s risk assessment rankings. He noted that beyond that, the Resilient Corridor remains a very safe space for visitors and workers alike with comparatively high vaccination rates and extremely low infection rates. 
• Jamaica is now ranked at level three, which urges US travelers to be fully vaccinated before travelling. Despite CDC risk assessments, Americans by and large continue to travel to destinations they want to visit. 
• Bartlett said there is no room for complacency. Jamaica will continue to follow and be guided by international standards relating to the COVID-19 protocols, ensuring that its economy and tourism sector can get back to normal as quickly as possible. 
• This development will certainly complement the efforts being made to boost tourist arrivals including the increase in air traffic by airline companies such as Frontier. It will also aid in the overall recovery of the tourism sector and the wider economy. Currently, Jamaica is projected to welcome 1.57Mn and 3.2Mn tourists in 2021 and 2022, respectively and will be “well on its way to recovery” in 2023 with an anticipated 3.7 million visitor arrivals and inflows of US$3.7 billion.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica has gained new connections to a wider European travel market with the commencement of direct flights via Eurowings Discover from Frankfurt, Germany, to the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, St. James. 
• Regional Director of the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) in continental Europe, Gregory Shervington, told journalists that the arrival of the plane signals the commencement of nonstop direct service to Montego Bay twice per week. 
• In terms of seat capacity, Eurowings adds substantial capacity and convenience as they are the only airline, which offers nonstop service in both directions from Germany to Jamaica now. Mr. Shervington said that the airline’s decision to start new flight service from Germany to Jamaica can only bolster the country’s image on the international stage. 
• For his part, Eurowings Discover’s Director of Network Airport Relations, Rupert Kraus, said that with the new flight service, there is the capacity to shuttle approximately 15,000 passengers over the winter tourist season to Montego Bay. This will could help Jamaica to record a strong winter season and potentially improve the speed of recovery in the sector.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions maintained its view that Latin American governments are unlikely to advance market-oriented reforms in the coming quarters due to public opposition to spending cuts, divided legislatures and other idiosyncratic risk factors. 
• As a result, Latin America's average score in Fitch’s Reform Tracker has fallen to 3.4 out of 10 in Q421, from 3.5 in Q321 and a high of 5.4 in Q419. 
• In upcoming elections in Chile, Colombia and Brazil, candidates campaigning against reform efforts initiated over recent years appear to be frontrunners, weakening reform prospects in the medium term.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Central Bank left the target policy rate unchanged at 3%, while the 1d repo rate and the overnight rate remained at 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively. The CB reiterated its view that inflationary pressures are largely due to temporary global supply shocks resulting in spikes of oil and other commodity prices, as well as logistical issues such as scarcity of shipping containers. 
• On the domestic front, beef prices have also fueled inflation. The authorities still expect inflation to converge towards the target range of 4.0% +or- 1.0% by mid-2022. In the meantime, the CB is gradually withdrawing the liquidity programs introduced during the pandemic. 
• The Bank indicated that economic activity expanded by 12.7% during the first nine months of the year, and that GDP is likely to expand by more than 10% in 2021. 
• It also acknowledged that domestic demand is recovering on the back of the various stimulus programs and the successful vaccination campaign, with strong performance of construction, local manufacturing, commercial activities, and free zones.

(Source: Oppenheimer)

• World food prices rose for a third straight month in October to reach a fresh 10-year peak, led again by increases in cereals and vegetable oils, the UN food agency said on Thursday. 
• The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.2 points last month compared with a revised 129.2 for September. 
• The October reading was the highest for the index since July 2011. On a year-on-year basis, the index was up 31.3% in October. 
• Agricultural commodity prices have risen steeply in the past year, driven by harvest setbacks and strong demand.

(Source: Reuters)