• The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) revised its 2021 growth outlook to 1%-2% in its 3Q21 review from the 0%-3% estimate in the 2Q21 review. 
• This was one of several downward revisions to the growth forecast this year, with previous estimates as high as 7%-10% at the onset of the calendar year. Economic activity improved 10% Y/Y in 3Q21, reflecting an improving tourism sector and making the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. 
• However, accumulated activity through the first nine months remains 3.2% below the 2020 level. Long-stay tourist arrivals totaled 43k during the quarter, representing a 225% Y/Y improvement but are 72% below the pre-pandemic level. 
• The results are said to point to the process of a return to normalcy for the pandemic depressed tourism industry, with a speedier recovery contingent on the developments in Barbados’ key source markets as well as the vaccination efforts domestically.

(Source: Oppenheimer)

• Global equities moved toward record highs on Thursday and U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors discounted weak U.S. economic growth data to retain their focus on strong corporate results and interest rate expectations amid rising inflation. 
• U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2% annualized rate last quarter, the slowest since the second quarter of 2020 when the economy was beset by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, the Commerce Department said in its advance GDP estimate on Thursday. 
• The weak GDP figure was offset by continued improvement in U.S. jobless claims, which dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 last week, remaining below the 300,000 threshold for the third straight week.
• "The GDP numbers are not a surprise since we've come off a bottom and it's going to slow to the normal pre-COVID pace," said Dan Genter, chief investment officer at RNC Genter Capital Management in Los Angeles. "The earnings confirm that the multiple is sustainable and it's giving people confidence not to exit the market and even to put money in."

(Source: Reuters)

• The pandemic-induced loss in working hours in 2021 will be equivalent to 125 million full-time jobs, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said on Wednesday, in a sign that the global labour market is not recovering as expected this year. 
• That number is 25 million higher than what the ILO predicted in its last report in June, affected primarily by the disparities in vaccine rollouts in poorer and richer countries.
• Globally, the number of hours worked is set to be 4.3% less than the pre-pandemic level, the ILO said. 
• However, when that figure is calculated based on countries' income level, there is a 2.1 percentage points difference: Rich countries saw only a 3.6% loss, versus a 5.7% for poorer nations.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) is working assiduously to ensure a safe and secure return of cruise operations at all the island’s ports by early December 2021. Assistant Vice President, Marketing Communications at the Port Authority, Kimberley Stiff, said that the entity is hosting a series of meetings to apprise various interest groups and the communities in which it operates, of the status of the resumption of cruise operations in preparation for the start of the upcoming season. 
• The Port Authority, with the guidance and support from the Ministry of Health and Wellness, has been systematically devising and implementing mechanisms and solutions to ensure a safe and secure restart of the cruise-shipping sector within the COVID-19 operational context. The authority has also been working closely with the Ministry of Tourism and its select agencies in this regard. 
• Already, several cruise ship calls have been secured for the upcoming season, some of which are scheduled to start in mid-November. These, Miss Stiff said, include inaugural visits as well as calls from ultra-luxury premium cruise lines. 
• She said that the high level of interest in Jamaica by cruise operators, is attributed, in part, to the successful restart of activities at the port of Ocho Rios, after a 17-month absence due to restrictions arising from COVID-19. She noted that the state-of-art, modernized world-class cruise ports and facilities also add to the island’s attractiveness as a cruise destination. 
• Cruise shipping is one of the PAJ’s core business segments, which contributes significantly to the Jamaican economy. The success of many sectors, small and medium-sized businesses, as well as entrepreneurs, is dependent on the viability of cruise shipping. Several professional and stakeholder groups benefit from cruise operations, as the industry plays an integral role in sustaining their livelihoods. As a result, cruise resumption will fuel business activity and economic growth, bolstering private consumption in the island’s port cities and towns.

(Source: JIS News)

• Disagreements about pension cuts between the Puerto Rican legislature and the federal board overseeing its finances have increased the risk that a deal with bondholders to end Puerto Rico’s bankruptcy will not move forward. 
• Fitch Solutions believes this scenario would be negative for Puerto Rico’s political and economic stability, as it could lead creditors to demand immediate repayment of their bonds while increasing the risk of public spending cuts, potentially driving social instability. 
• Even if a deal is made to support debt restructuring in the near term, the agency sees a risk that public pensions will see cuts in the long term, which would likely spark public protests.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions forecasts that the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) will maintain its benchmark monetary policy rate at 3.50% through end-2021, in an effort to support an economic recovery that was hampered by a mid-year COVID-19 outbreak. 
• Fitch expects accelerating economic growth in the coming quarters will increase inflation to an average of 2.2% in 2022, from a forecasted 1.4% in 2021, which will push the CBTT to raise its policy rate to 3.75% in 2022. 
• In addition, it expects tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2022 will increase pressure on the CBTT to follow suit in order to stem capital outflows.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Stocks are trading near record high levels, but one Wall Street pro thinks the market momentum can continue thanks to healthy corporate profits. 
• Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, told CNN that the recent rally is all about "earnings momentum." 
• Many blue-chip companies have reported strong financial results and Belski thinks the US stock market should "continue to pace the global earnings recovery" well into 2022 and 2023. 
• Belski isn't worried that the Federal Reserve is going to end the Wall Street party fever. Even though many investors are worried about inflation right now, Belski said eventual interest rate hikes from the Fed will take longer than the market thinks. "We are coming from excessively low levels, crisis levels," Belski said. "Higher rates are a good thing. It shows the economy can stand on its own two feet."

(Source: CNN Business)

• Soaring energy prices have contributed to pushing Developed Market (DM) inflation significantly above pre-Covid levels, at 3.5% y-o-y in September 2021 according to Fitch Solutions’ estimates. 
• Energy costs have been driven up by a sharp economic recovery-induced rise in gas, oil and coal prices, up by 118.0%, 36.1% and 242.2% respectively since January 2021. 
• While all developed markets are exposed to energy price pass-through to inflation, some countries such as Japan and South Korea are more exposed owing to a higher reliance on non-renewable sources (gas, coal and oil) for electricity generation.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Cruise ships are set to return to Falmouth on November 8, following an 18-month absence due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Italian liner, Costa, a subsidiary of Carnival Corporation, will be making a much-anticipated call to the Trelawny capital. 
• Mayor Colin Gager, has said that the visit by the vessel is welcomed news for local officials, businesses, and residents. He indicated that plans are in place to welcome the Italian cruise liner as “some on the ground preparation” had started in Falmouth, including improving the the basic infrastructure, after the resumption of cruise shipping in Ocho Rios over two months ago. 
• Chief Strategist/Adviser in the Ministry of Tourism, Delano Seiveright, who was part of a delegation led by the Hon. Edmund Bartlett that met with cruise owners and officials in Miami, Florida, recently, told JIS News that the visit of the Costa cruise ship is only a “sample” of things to come. 
• Seiveright noted that Ocho Rios, which has been welcoming cruise passengers since August, has proven that Jamaica is adequately prepared to host ships during the COVID pandemic. This, he said, bodes well for other destinations, including Falmouth, and will open the gates for a plethora of ships to call on the island’s other ports in the coming months leading into 2022. 
• Continued recovery in the domestic cruise industry will support the tourism rebound. As at July 2021, there have been 716,221 tourist arrivals, which is below the 1.07Mn and 2.64Mn reported in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica generated US$789.2Mn in export earnings during the first half of 2021, between January and June. The out-turn represents a 28.3% increase over the corresponding period last year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported. 
• Director General, Carol Coy, said this was largely due to an increase in the value of exports from the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying industries, which rose by 25.0% and 9.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, expenditure on imports rose by 15.2% to US$2.7Bn during the period, largely due to higher imports of fuel and lubricants (+46.1%) and raw material/intermediate goods (+18.8%). 
• Despite the increase in import and exports, Jamaica recorded a decline in goods traded relative to the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic periods of 2019 and 2018, due to contractions in the local and global economies. 
• Measures implemented to restrict movement and contain COVID-19 transmission, including the closure of borders and factories globally, led to lower production levels and demand for some products. She pointed out that as a result, the value declined significantly in 2020, and despite increasing in 2021, the value of imports and exports has not yet returned to their pre-pandemic levels. 
• Export earnings for the 2021 review period were 14.6% and 16.1%, below the out-turns for 2019 and 2018, respectively. The value of imports for the 2021 review period was also 17.9% lower than in 2019 and 7.9% less than 2018.

(Source: JIS News)