• The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy contracted by an estimated 18% for the April to June quarter, relative to the corresponding period last year.
• Specifically, a 7% and 20.6% contraction in the goods-producing industry and services industry, respectively, contributed to the over falloff in economic activity.
• The outturn was largely due to the impact of the coronavirus and measures implemented to contain its spread, which has resulted in job losses and reduced work hours, lower-income, weakened consumer demand, and continued slowdown in construction-related activities.
• All goods-producing subsectors declined, with mining and quarrying recording the greatest reduction of an estimated 25.2% due to lower alumina production outweighing increased bauxite output. The closure of the JISCO Alpart refinery has resulted in lower capacity utilization within the mining and quarrying industry. In addition, the agriculture sector declined by 8.5%; manufacturing by 2.9%; and construction by 3%.
• As it relates to the services industry, four of the five subsectors declined, with hotels and restaurants falling by 87.5%.

(Source: PIOJ)

• Colombia’s Banco de la República (BanRep) will maintain its dovish monetary policy stance in the coming quarters in an effort to promote economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic.
• In addition to weak price pressures that keep inflation at multi-year lows, a dovish US Federal Reserve will support BanRep's sustained monetary stimulus measures.
• Fitch Solutions forecasts that BanRep will leave its policy interest rate at 2.00% through the end-2020 and into 2021. That said, Fitch revised its 2020 and 2021 average inflation forecasts to 2.6% and 2.5% y-o-y, from 2.9% and 3.0% previously, as subdued domestic demand persists in the short-to-medium term

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The outlook for Venezuela’s banking sector remains bleak, as numerous structural headwinds and the impact of Covid-19 will keep the sector effectively unable to function.
• At end-2020, Fitch Solutions expects total asset growth of 1,993.7% y-o-y to VES5,887.95Mn, led by bond purchases, reflecting high inflation amid increases in government spending.
• Should a new government come into power, it is expected that the sector’s outlook would improve dramatically, though nominal growth in banking indicators would slow as inflation is reined in.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned the interruption to children’s schooling in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic could mean global economic growth is 1.5% lower on average for the rest of the century.
• The intergovernmental economic organization said this projected loss of gross domestic product, which measures economic growth, would be equivalent to a total economic loss of $15.3Tn in the U.S.
• The OECD paper, published Tuesday and citing third-party data, estimated how students’ losing out on one-third of the school year would impact the global economy in the long-run.
• It was estimated this loss of time in the classroom would lead to a loss of skills, and this, in turn, would negatively impact productivity. As a result, the total cost of missed schooling could amount to 69% of the current GDP for the typical country, the OECD said.
• The OECD said losses to economic growth could be “proportionately higher” if schools were slow to recover.

(Source: CNCB News)

• Market watchers believe the European Central Bank (ECB) could fine-tune its policies this week, and may even follow the Federal Reserve by revising its inflation targets in the longer term.
• The ECB’s Governing Council convenes on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss its monetary policy stance and its assessment of the eurozone economy. Since its last meeting, economic data has shown signs of a slowing of the recovery, the euro has appreciated and core inflation slumped to a new record low in August.
• While the majority of analysts do not expect much policy action and think the ECB will wait until December, there is a remote chance of tweaks to its guidance this week, backed by new staff projections.

(Source: CNBC News)

• Eppley Caribbean Property Fund Limited SCC – Value Fund (“ECPF”) announced that it is acquiring two industrial properties in Kingston, 105-107 Marcus Garvey Drive, and 693 Spanish Town Road.
• ECPF has completed the acquisition of 105-107 Marcus Garvey Drive, a 3.4-acre parcel of land located in New Port West containing two buildings, including a cold storage facility, totaling over 86,000 square feet. ECPF’s acquisition was structured to have the effect of purchasing the property using 15,447,465 newly issued shares as consideration at price equivalent to its NAV per share. The property is fully tenanted.
• ECPF, Norbrook Equity Partners, and its partners have also jointly reached an agreement to acquire 693 Spanish Town Road, a 3-acre parcel of land with more than 75,000 square feet of warehouse space. The partners have identified tenants to occupy the building and expect this acquisition to be completed in the fourth quarter.
• ECPF is the largest listed real estate mutual fund in the Caribbean and trades on the Jamaica, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago stock exchanges. At the completion of these acquisitions, ECPF will own 13 buildings in Jamaica and Barbados comprising over 670,000 square feet.

(Source: JSE)

• According to Fitch, the incumbent Jamaica Labour Party’s general election victory signals economic and fiscal policy continuity.
• The scale and efficacy of Jamaica’s coronavirus policy response remain important to sovereign credit metrics, as data from Q2 2020 and uncertainty over tourism’s recovery point to a fiscal deficit and a GDP contraction are bigger than Fitch’s most recent forecast published in July.
• The pandemic-related spending done by the Administration since the start of the year resulted in the central government expenditure increasing 5% year-over-year (yoy) from April to June, while revenues contracted 20% YoY. Fitch’s most recent FY2020/2021 deficit forecast of 2.7% of GDP assumed revenues for the full fiscal year fall 11% and GDP shrinks 5.3% in the calendar year 2020.
• Although borders reopened to international tourists on June 15, stopover arrivals in July were only 16% of those a year ago. Visitors from countries deemed high risk, including the U.S., have to test negative for COVID-19 prior to arrival. Therefore, the possibility that Jamaica misses a substantial portion of the winter vacation season is a meaningful risk to the agency’s current 2020 GDP and FY2020/2021 deficit forecasts.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions expects lower energy prices will flip Trinidad & Tobago’s (T&T) current account balance into deficit in 2020.
• Consequently, it has revised its current account forecasts to -4.7% and -3.7% of GDP in 2020 and 2021, from -2.6% and -3.1% previously.
• The current account deficit will shrink gradually over the coming years as rebounding natural gas prices drive modest export growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Covid-19 pandemic will transform Grenada’s fiscal position, as a collapse in revenues and countercyclical public spending push the budget balance into deficit in 2020 and the years thereafter.
• While it is expected that an economic rebound will support revenue growth beginning in 2021, the government will likely return to fiscal consolidation in the longer term to contain debt accumulation.
• Fitch Solutions forecasts the Grenadian fiscal deficit will be 2.4% of GDP in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021, from a 4.1% surplus in 2019.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The official US unemployment rate fell to 8.4% in August as businesses continued emerging from broad shutdowns imposed early in the coronavirus pandemic, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported Friday.
• That’s the lowest rate since unemployment exploded in April, to levels unseen since the Great Depression. It would also mean the official rate dipped below the peak seen during the country’s last downturn, known as the Great Recession. 
• But the true rate in August is likely much higher than the official figure — perhaps even exceeding 11%, according to labor economists. That would mean the country is still in the throes of an unemployment crisis worse than at any time in the post-Second World War era.  

(Source: CNBC)