• Britain's business secretary vowed to "remain calm" and insisted he still wants a trade deal with the United States after President Donald Trump's decision on Wednesday to impose import tariffs of 10% on the United Kingdom.
• Trump said Britain would be among the countries that would face the new lowest tariff rate on imports to the United States, while dozens of other nations faced higher duties. Britain has been attempting to reach an economic deal with the U.S. by offering to more closely align with Washington on areas such as technology and has expressed hope that any tariffs can be reversed quickly once the two sides agree on terms.
• "The US is our closest ally, so our approach is to remain calm and committed to doing this deal, which we hope will mitigate the impact of what has been announced today," Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said in a statement after the tariffs were announced.
• Unlike the European Union and other major economies, Britain has not retaliated over other U.S. tariffs but has said that it would keep all options on the table. British business groups welcomed the government's approach, saying that while they were deeply disappointed by the tariffs, retaliating would only cause further economic disruption. "A cool and calm reaction from the UK Government is the right response: UK firms need a measured and proportionate approach which avoids further escalation," Rain Newton-Smith, the chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, said in a statement.
• Britain's opposition Conservative Party blamed the Labour government for failing to negotiate an exemption from the tariffs, while the Liberal Democrats accused the U.S. of launching a "destructive trade war".

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaican economy contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024) compared to Q4 2023, these are the findings in the latest release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The year over year decline in economic activity was due to the impact of Tropical Storm Rafael in November and the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl. This marked the second consecutive quarterly decline for 2024,
• Despite a 0.4% increase in the Services Industries, the Goods Producing Industries declined by 4.3%, resulting in the overall falloff in real value added. All Goods Producing Industries experienced declines, with Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing contracting the most (-10.6%), followed by Construction (-2.7%), Mining & Quarrying (-2.3%), and Manufacturing (-0.5%). The decline in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing was observed in both the Traditional Export Crops and Other Agricultural Crops (including Animal Farming, Forestry & Fishing) sub-industries, which fell by 46.3% and 4.1%, respectively.
• The effects of Hurricane Beryl, compounded by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Rafael in November 2024, drove the sharp contraction in the Agricultural industry. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated total crop, livestock, and infrastructure damages at J$621Mn.
• Meanwhile, growth in the Services Industries was primarily attributed to increases in Producers of Government Services (0.8%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.2%), Transport, Storage & Communication (1.8%), Other Services (0.2%), and Finance & Insurance Services (0.5%). However, the growth was tempered by the declines in Electricity & Water Supply (-1.4%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (-0.3%), Hotels & Restaurants (-0.3%), Other Services (-0.2%) and Finance & Insurance Services (-0.5%).
• Overall, preliminary estimates for the calendar year 2024 indicate that total value added at constant prices fell by 0.7% compared to 2023. However, looking ahead, there are signs that the economy could expand in 2025, with the PIOJ projecting a 0.1% to 1.0% increase for the March quarter.
• That said, there are risks to the outlook. The uncertainties around the Trump administration's trade, immigration and other policy changes could adversely affect remittances, exports, and tourist activity if they weaken U.S. consumer confidence through higher inflation and increased uncertainty. These developments could lead to a reduction in Jamaica’s current account balance while also affecting demand for the sovereign’s goods and services, given the likelihood of lower household income due to lower remittance inflows. Overall, lower demand would dampen economic growth and could lead to further local economic contraction

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Kingston Airport Revenue Finance LLC (KINAIR) project is expected to continue to withstand a hypothetical sovereign stress scenario attributable to its financial structure, which includes an offshore cash-funded reserve account and relatively steady air passenger volumes, given the airport's importance for Jamaica.
• In 2024, Norman Manley International Airport's traffic performance (1.76 million passengers) was in line with S&P Global Ratings' expectation of 1.75 million arrivals. Aeronautical charges were adjusted higher by 3.36% effective January 1, 2025.
• Importantly, total passengers at the airport rose 1.6% in 2024, with less than 1% of passengers being domestic passengers. International passengers were mainly traveling from the U.S. (primarily Fort Lauderdale, New York, and Miami), Canada, and the U.K.
• The three airlines that contributed most to the airport’s revenue in 2024 were JetBlue Airways Corporation, American Airlines Inc., and Caribbean Airlines Ltd. Together, they accounted for roughly 45% of the airport's airline-related revenue.
• For these reasons, S&P believes passenger traffic at the NMIA will grow 4%-6% in 2025 and 3%-5% in 2026. This will enable KINAIR, which benefits from 53.22% of the airport’s revenue and is intrinsically correlated to traffic volumes, to post the minimum and median DSCRs (debt service coverage ratios) during the first phase of the transaction of roughly 1.28x and roughly 1.3x, respectively, until an expected refinancing in 2036. For the second phase, S&P continues to expect minimum and median DSCRs of 1.3x.
• Kingston’s NMIA is owned by the Airports Authority of Jamaica. The authority operated the NMIA for about 45 years, but in 2019, it granted a 25-year concession to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico S.A.B. de C.V. (GAP), a private airport operator. As part of the agreement, GAP committed to the monthly transfer of 53.22% of the airport's aggregate revenue (consisting of aeronautical and commercial revenue) as the concession fee to the Airports Authority of Jamaica. The remaining 46.78% of revenue must cover NMIA's operations, maintenance costs, and capital expenditures. The concession fee is, therefore, senior to any of the airport's expenses.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Guyana on Monday received seven bids for the second phase of its landmark Gas-to-Energy project, which includes the design, construction, and operation of a 300-megawatt (MW) combined cycle power plant and a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility with a capacity to produce about 5,800 barrels per day (b/d).
• The bids were submitted by the following companies/groups: Karpowership Global DMCC (United Arab Emirates), ENKA UK Construction Limited (United Kingdom), Onex Holdings SCS (Luxembourg), Andalusian Energy (United States), J&L Supplies Guyana Inc. (Guyana), CXL Solutions LLC, LSI Group Sociedad Anonima (Guatemala), CH4 Systems (Puerto Rico), Lindsayca (Texas), LS Energia Inc (consortium including Controlmatik, ESE Servicios Electromecanicos, Carlos Caballero) (Florida)
• The tender, opened by the National Procurement and Tender Administration Board (NPTAB), sought private partners to develop the project under a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA), allowing investors to recover their costs through the sale of electricity and monetisation of NGLs. At the end of the PPA term, ownership of the facilities will be transferred to the government at no cost, the terms say.
• The project will utilise about 70 million cubic feet per day (cf/d) of natural gas—the remaining capacity of a pipeline being constructed to transport about 120 million cf/d from ExxonMobil’s Liza field offshore Guyana to the Wales Development Zone on the western bank of the Demerara River.
• Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo has said the second phase can be completed within two years. It will benefit from the same fiscal incentives granted to developers of the first phase—Lindsayca and CH4. Together, the two phases are expected to deliver a total of 600 MW of power and roughly 9,800 b/d of NGLs, significantly reducing Guyana’s dependence on imported fuels and lowering electricity costs, which are among the highest in the region.
• The first phase, currently under development, includes a 300 MW power plant and an NGL facility expected to produce around 4,000 barrels per day. It will use approximately 50 million cf/d of natural gas supplied by ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block.
• The Gas-to-Energy project is considered a transformational project for the South American nation, which became an oil producer in 2019.

(Source: Oil Now)

• Lackluster new U.S. jobs data and a weak report on manufacturing highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that employment could slip even as the risk of a tariff-driven round of inflation limits their ability to do anything about it.
• New data from Intuit's Small Business Index, compiled from the company's business software clients, showed the smallest firms shed around 98,000 jobs in March, a 0.82% decline from February.
• Data on hiring and layoffs for February showed a job market that was potentially losing steam more broadly, with a drop in job openings, a slight rise in layoffs, worker quit rates similar to those during the languid job market of the mid-2010s, and near balance in the demand for and supply of available employees.
• While investors following the report boosted bets the Fed would cut rates three times this year more than central bank officials are projecting, a separate report on manufacturing sent a more confusing signal.
• The Institute for Supply Management index of manufacturing activity fell, but its measure of prices paid by companies rose. "The manufacturing sector is showing the first signs that stagflation may be coming for the broader economy," wrote Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif, noting the price measure in the survey rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022. This could be a confounding situation for the Fed.
• Policymakers have said they will keep their benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as they wait for a clearer understanding of how the tariffs and other policy changes being rolled out by President Donald Trump influence the economy. However, one near-term impact that concerns them - a weakening economy coupled with rising prices - offers no easy monetary policy response.
• New data on job growth and the unemployment rate for March will be released on Friday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has issued a stark warning over the alarming rise in internet banking fraud, which has increased by an astounding 890 percent ($330.6Mn) since 2020. This surge in cybercrimes, as outlined in the BOJ’s latest financial stability report for 2024, has become one of the most significant emerging threats to the country’s banking sector.
• Banking fraud is now a major concern, with internet banking fraud incidents rising sharply between 2019 and 2023, “approximately nine times the pre-pandemic rate.” The central bank attributed this rise to the rapid shift towards electronic banking methods following the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Credit and debit card fraud was the most prevalent type, accounting for “an annual average of just over 69% of the $800Mn of total fraud amounts reported by financial institutions” by the end of 2023. These frauds were primarily concentrated in areas with higher digital traffic, such as Kingston, Portmore, and Spanish Town.
• The BOJ also reported a rise in physical robberies targeting currency management services, including five attacks on cash-in-transit (CIT) service providers and 10 robbery attempts at automated banking machine (ABM) locations. These incidents resulted in the theft of approximately $145 million. However, these types of robberies represented a smaller portion of the monetary losses compared to online fraud.
• In response to these increasing threats, the central bank indicated that commercial banks have introduced enhanced anti-fraud measures and have taken steps to recover losses. Additionally, the BOJ emphasised the importance of prosecution and enforcement efforts in tackling fraud. As fraudsters continue to adapt their techniques, the Bank of Jamaica warned of a rise in social engineering tactics, which have proven to be increasingly effective in circumventing security measures. The BOJ stressed that both financial institutions and the public must remain vigilant and proactive in combating these evolving threats to Jamaica’s banking sector.
• The central bank’s ongoing efforts will focus on strengthening the country’s financial security and ensuring that Jamaica’s banking system remains resilient in the face of emerging cybercrime risks.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• China’s state-owned offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd. said on Thursday (March 27) that its overseas production surged by 10.8% in 2024, driven in part by the commissioning of new projects, including the Payara development in Guyana.
• In its annual results report, CNOOC said overseas output rose to 234 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2024, up from 211.3 million boe in 2023. The company holds a 25% stake in the Payara project, the third oil development in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, which is operated by ExxonMobil.
• Payara began production in November 2023 and reached its design capacity of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) in January 2024. ExxonMobil later carried out structural optimisation measures, raising the vessel’s production capacity to approximately 250,000 b/d by June 2024. The Stabroek block currently has three producing projects with a combined capacity of over 650,000 b/d.
• Exxon has said further optimisation measures could allow Payara and the Liza Phase 2 project—both designed to produce 220,000 b/d—to ramp up to 265,000 b/d each. However, Guyana’s regulators are still reviewing the application and have yet to approve the proposed increases. Officials said they are taking a thorough approach to ensure safety.
• Guyana is becoming an increasingly valuable asset in CNOOC’s portfolio, with production increasing rapidly every year. The company expects three additional projects in the South American nation to come online between 2025 and 2028, adding a total of 750,000 b/d in new production capacity.

(Source: Oil NOW)

• United States (US) Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has pledged to participate in further discussions with the Jamaican Government to better understand its engagement of doctors under the Cuban Medical Cooperation Programme. Mr. Rubio has also acknowledged that Jamaica may not be among the nations deemed to be exploiting Cuban labour.
• Responding to questions regarding the Programme, which Jamaica has heavily relied on for more than five decades, Secretary Rubio sought to clarify that the US does not have an issue with the Cuban medical programme, but rather with forced labour.
• While specifying that he was not speaking about how Jamaica’s programme operates, the Secretary of State indicated that in other parts of the world, Cuban doctors are reportedly not paid directly, but have their compensation sent to the Cuban Government, which then decides how much they will receive.
• He alleged that in some cases, the passports of professionals are taken and they are coerced into participating in forced labour.
• “There are places that have better labour standards [and] perhaps Jamaica is one of those, and that’s fine. Every country operates their programme differently and, obviously, because of our relationship with Jamaica, we’re going to engage with them on that and talk about it further and have a better understanding. Perhaps none of this applies in the way it’s handled here,” Secretary Rubio stated.
• He maintained, however, that the US Government cannot be supportive of trafficking and forced labour.
• Meanwhile, Prime Minister Holness, in responding to questions regarding the Programme, emphasised that the Cuban doctors in Jamaica have been incredibly helpful in assisting to fill deficits created by local health personnel exiting the system, noting that many have migrated to other countries.
• Minister of Health and Wellness, Dr. Tufton, advised that the Government is currently renegotiating the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) governing the Programme. He added that the contracts of several Cuban healthcare professionals now on the island ended recently, so they will be heading home. However, Dr. Tufton said a new batch of medical professionals will be heading to Jamaica to replace the outgoing personnel.

(Source: JIS)

• Jamaica Broilers Group (JBG) saw its profits blown off course in its third quarter. The company posted a net loss of $1.0Bn compared to a net profit of $1.3Bn in the same quarter last year. The downturn was largely driven by weak US segment performance and higher costs, despite a slight uptick in overall revenues.
• Group revenues climbed to J$24.6Bn, a 5.0% increase YoY, buoyed by a 5.0% revenue rise in US operations and a 0.5% lift in Jamaica. The topline improvement reflects resilience across key segments, but it wasn’t enough to salvage the group’s profits.
• Despite stronger sales, JBG saw gross and operating profit erosion amid rising costs. Gross profits dropped 21.0% YoY to J$4.7Bn, reflecting higher direct costs, while operating profit was also down, dented by higher operating expenses, particularly in the US, where segment profit cratered 69.0% to $922.0Mn.
• These lower results were primarily linked to ongoing operational challenges in the US, including flooding and weak broiler performance as well as Hurricane Beryl’s disruption in Jamaica. Specifically, for the US operations, management cited rising distribution and management costs, hurricane/flooding challenges in US broiler operations and ongoing investments in strengthening internal controls and risk oversight as key sources of the weaker performance.
• Ultimately, JBG’s Q3 results had a significant drag on the Group’s 9-month (9M) performance. Though 9M revenues were slightly up, the sharp decline in Q3 earnings erased prior momentum.
• For Q4, management has been focused on turning around its US operations and preserving stability in its home market. As part of that thrust, it has engaged external advisors in the US to review operational controls and any implications to the financial performance of the US Operations.
• Following the release of the financials, JBG’s stock price closed at J$30.71 on Thursday, reflecting a 9.7% decline immediately after the release. Year-to-date, its price is down 14.5%, implying a P/E of 9.22x, below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 13.35x.

(Source: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Bank of Mexico delivered a unanimous 50-basis-point interest rate cut to 9.00% on Thursday, highlighting progress on inflation but warning of heightened uncertainty relating to trade tensions and a weakening economy.
• The move, which analysts polled by Reuters expected, brings Mexico's benchmark rate to its lowest since September 2022. It was the second consecutive cut of half a percentage point after the bank's five-member governing board sped up its rate-cutting pace at its February meeting.
• Cuts of the same size could be considered at future meetings, Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, said in a statement announcing its decision. Banxico highlighted that Mexico's disinflation progress is "well on track." Mexico's inflation rate has fallen within the bank's target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Data released days before the policy meeting showed that headline inflation eased to 3.67% on an annual basis in the first half of March, down from 3.74% in the previous month.
• Easing inflation comes amid mounting concerns of a possible recession in Latin America's no. 2 economy, which was battered last year by a drought and has been thrashed in recent weeks by Washington's on-again, off-again tariff threats and a related drop in investor confidence. "The changes in economic policy by the new U.S. administration have added uncertainty to the forecasts," said Banxico, adding that the effects could push inflation higher or lower.
• Banxico's rate decision comes a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on auto imports, posing a threat to Mexico's critical auto industry. Earlier this week, JPMorgan said a recession in Mexico was "unavoidable" after data from Mexico's statistics agency showed the economy shrank 0.2% in January. Banxico said Mexico's economy "is expected to exhibit weakness once again in the first quarter of 2025.
• A first-quarter contraction would mark a technical recession, after the economy shrank in the fourth quarter, its first quarterly contraction since the pandemic.

(Source: Reuters)