• The outlook for the Barbados economy has become more favorable over the past 12 months. The public finances have improved, the international reserves have recovered and the financing pressures created by high indebtedness have started to ease.
• Indications are that investor confidence is returning, but as expected, economic activity for 2019 has been sluggish. Growth from the tourism sector has buoyed economic activity, but faster project implementation is required to push growth above the forecasted range of 0% to 0.25%.
• With the strengthening of the macroeconomic environment, an anticipated further pick-up in tourism and acceleration of investments, the current forecast for 2020 is in the range of 0.75% and 1.25%.

 (Source: Central Bank of Barbados)

• Bloomberg, one of the world’s leading news platforms, has turned its spotlight once again on Guyana’s oil sector. This time, its focus was primarily on the nation’s preparedness to receive and efficiently manage the billions of oil revenue to flow from the ExxonMobil –led Stabroek Block.
• Bloomberg noted that while Guyana is mere months away from first oil production; its petroleum laws remain outdated; the Energy Department is underfunded; new and relevant laws have not been established; a regulatory body to oversee production is virtually nonexistent; and while a Natural Resource Fund was established to save as much as $5Bn in revenue per year by 2025, the government is still to put forward a plan on how it will use those funds.
• Bloomberg noted that all of this “unpreparedness” is taking place against the backdrop of confusion on when elections should be held and threats by Venezuela over Guyana’s territorial waters.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The U.S. and China are, much to the relief of markets, making moves to step back from the brink of an all-out trade war. 
• President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of new tariffs on a wide variety of consumer products including toys and laptops until December.
• Chinese officials are sticking to their plans to visit Washington in September for face-to-face meetings, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Whatever the chances of a positive outcome, investors have welcomed the pause in escalations from both sides. 

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• German gross domestic product contracted by 0.1%in the second quarter, in line with expectations.
• The drop in output was driven by a slump in exports as U.S.-China tensions rumbled on during the period.
• Separate data showed euro-area GDP growth slowed to 0.2%, while industrial production in the currency zone plunged the most in more than three years in June. 
• China posted the weakest industrial output growth since 2002, while disappointing credit data increased the pressure on officials to add stimulus to the economy.

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• The stream of investors seeking refuge in the safest parts of the market has triggered yet another recession warning, with yield curves inverting from the U.S. to the U.K.
• The gap between two- and 10-year yields dropped below zero on both sides of the Atlantic after a wave of soft economic data globally.
• Weaker-than-forecast Chinese retail sales and industrial output set the mood for the markets, with data later in the day showing Germany’s economy contracted, adding to the gloom.
• Investors have been driving into areas of the bond market that still offer a positive yield, typically longer-dated assets that offer better returns, in order to protect their funds from a global slowdown in growth. 

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• Net profit reported by Lasco Distributors declined by 29.8% for the first quarter ending June 30, 2019. Net profit ended the quarter at $163.91Mn (EPS: $0.05) compared to $233.64Mn (EPS: $ 0.07) reported last year.
• The deterioration in performance can be attributed to an increase in the cost of sales (1.9%) together with increases also reported in operating expenses (9.7%) and a $5.48Mn rise in finance costs.
• The stock has fallen 11.3% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $3.45 per share. At its current price, the stock now trades at a P/E of 22.32x earnings which is below the Junior Market Distribution sector average of 25.64x.

(Source: LASD Financials)

• For the three-month period ended June 30, 2019, Medical Disposables and Supplies reported a net profit of $16.09Mn (EPS: $0.06), a decline of 15.8% relative to the $19.09Mn (EPS: $0.07) reported one year prior.
• For the period under review, total operating expenses increased by 19.7% to $102.45Mn. This upward move can be attributed to increases in administrative expenses (4.6%), selling and promotional costs (43.2%) and depreciation which increased by 16.8%. Additionally, total non-operational expenses increased 64.9% mainly due to a 33.9% increase in finance costs and a significant 124.0% increase in losses on disposals and foreign currency translation. These increased expenses contributed significantly to the reduced profit reported by the company.
• The stock has fallen 4.9% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $7.11 per share. At its current price, the stock now trades at a P/E of 13.42x earnings which is below the Junior Market Distribution sector average of 25.64x.

(Source: MDS Financials

• The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has appointed a ten-member committee to evaluate at least 25 bids for the sale or lease of the Guaracara refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre.
• Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Ltd (TPHL) says the evaluation committee will be led by the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Finance Vishnu Dhanpaul.
• The committee will evaluate all bidders participating in the Guaracara request for proposal (RFP) and make a recommendation to the Cabinet on the preferred bidder. TPHL stated that the appointment of the committee will remove any requirement for the board of directors to conduct the evaluation and selection as the committee will assume full responsibility for the selection of the preferred bidder.

 (Source: Trinidad Express)

• During January to June 2019 economic activity, measured by the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) shows growth lower than in 2018 and similar to 2017, according to Regional Center for Sustainable Economic Strategies (CREES) senior economist Miguel Collado Di Franco.
• “This behavior so far in 2019 has been characterized by political-institutional uncertainty, which has negatively affected the investment prospects of economic agents,” the economist said.
• That uncertainty that does not dissipate in view of the continuing effort to amend the Constitution, “all this within an environment dominated by the processes of political parties with a view to the largest elections, within the scope of candidacies, of recent history.”
• Collado Di Franco adds that other negative factors have joined this widespread perception of uncertainty, “such as a lower generation of currencies by sectors such as Free Zones and national exports, to which the effects of the sensational journalistic coverage of the tourism sector by means of international communication.”

 (Source: Dominican Today)

• Chinese policymakers tried to calm global worries by fixing the yuan stronger than expected.
• While the new level is (just) weaker than 7 to the dollar for the first time since 2008, the strength compared to market estimates was seen as a signal that Beijing is seeking stability.
• Global assets are calmer in the wake of the Chinese move.
• It seems that President Donald Trump’s hopes of weakening the dollar will be less successful, as his trade position increases foreign bids for haven Treasuries which also boosts secular demand for the U.S. currency. 

(Source: Bloomberg)