• Bahamas’ initiative of allowing visa-free access to 157 countries has significantly boosted tourism, leading to unprecedented growth in the sector.
• This visa-free policy has been instrumental in establishing The Bahamas as a prime destination for various travel segments like business, luxury, and event travel. By making it easier to access the island, The Bahamas has simplified travel logistics and positioned itself as a top global hotspot in the tourism industry.
• In 2023, the total number of tourists reached 9,654,838, setting a new record and surpassing prior expectations. This number represents a 38% increase from 2022 and a 33% surge from the previous record set in 2019.
• Further, the significant uptick in tourism was supported by a 17% increase in foreign air arrivals, totalling 1.72Mn in 2023 compared to 1.47Mn in 2022. This growth highlights The Bahamas as a premier travel destination.
• Additionally, April 2024 saw a remarkable increase in cruise tourism, with 3.21Mn cruise visitors, up 14.8% from 2.80Mn in April 2023. Cruise tourism plays a crucial role in the Bahamian economy, contributing about 40% to the GDP and generating over US$2Bn annually from visitor spending.

(Source: Travel and Tour World)

• According to a survey from the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook. However, households remained upbeat about the labour market and expect inflation to moderate over the next year. The mixed survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also showed that consumers' perceived likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months retreated in June after rising in April and May.
• Labour market resilience is driving consumer spending, underpinning the economy despite the Federal Reserve's hefty interest-rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to quell inflation. Though fewer consumers planned to buy vehicles and household appliances over the next six months, more plan to go on vacation.
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dipped to 100.4 this month from a downwardly revised 101.3 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index slipping to 100.0 from the previously reported 102.0. The drop in confidence was concentrated in the 35-54 age group. Confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 years and older.
• The Conference Board said there was no clear pattern for income groups, but noted that on a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among the under-35 age cohort and those with annual incomes of more than $100,000.
• The share of consumers planning to buy a home was unchanged at a relatively low level for a fourth straight month. That is consistent with so-called hard data on home building and sales, which have shown the housing market regressing since residential investment notched double-digit growth in the first quarter. Higher mortgage rates and house prices are stifling demand. However, house-price appreciation could slow as reduced affordability weighs on demand for housing, contributing to a rise in supply.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer prices in Canada took an unexpected turn and rose in May, data showed on Tuesday, after showing signs of an almost consistent cooling since the start of the year, forcing markets to trim hopes of a rate cut in July to below 50.0%. The Bank of Canada, which cut interest rates for the first time in four years this month, has repeatedly maintained that the path towards further rate easing would be data-dependent and May's inflation data dampens the chance of an immediate rate cut.
• In May, the annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7% a month ago. Key measures of core inflation edged up for the first time in five months, according to Statistics Canada. As a result, money markets heavily trimmed their bets and now see a 45% chance of a rate cut in July, from over 70% seen on Monday.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to cool to 2.6%. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.6%, exceeding a 0.3% rise forecast. The surprise acceleration in headline inflation was driven by prices for services, including cellular services, travel tours, rent and air transportation.
• CPI-median and CPI-trim, the Bank of Canada's preferred measures of underlying inflation, rose for the first time since December, contrary to market expectations. The CPI-median sped up to 2.8% from 2.6% in April while CPI-trim accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8%. Economists had forecast CPI-median to remain at 2.6% and CPI-trim to be 2.8%.
• Excluding volatile food and energy, prices rose 2.9% compared with a 2.7% rise in April. Service prices increased 4.6% in May, compared with a 4.2% rise in April, while goods inflation remained at 1%. Mortgage costs continued to rise due to higher interest rates, but the pace slowed marginally to 23.3%. Rental inflation, however, soared to 8.9% after slowing to 8.2% in April.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s economy has improved its ability to respond to shocks over the last decade, says Prime Minister (PM) the Most Hon. Andrew Holness.
• “Jamaica has changed quite a bit in the last decade to the point where we can withstand some shocks. It’s not every shock that we will be able to withstand, but if we continue to grow our economy and run our public bodies well so that they have strong balance sheets, then they will be able to respond to shocks and crises,” PM Holness said.
• The PM addressed a meeting at the Ocho Rios Cruise Terminal in St. Ann on Friday (June 21). During his visit, PM Holness inspected a section of the pier that had recently sustained damage. In February, the cruise ship Carnival Magic collided with the pier, causing damage to the breasting dolphins and concrete berthing structure due to rough seas.
• “If this had occurred 10 years ago, the conversation would not be ‘when are we going to finish’, but ‘when are we going to start,’ and I need to remind Jamaicans of this. If this had happened 10 years ago, the question would not be ‘how much is it going to cost’, but ‘how are we going to borrow to fix it’,” he pointed out.
• PM Holness said the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) has the responsibility to ensure Jamaica’s resilience in the cruise shipping market, particularly regarding the readiness of its port infrastructure. “The PAJ is one of our well-run public institutions, meaning it has a balance sheet that can support the cost of resilience. PM Holness stated that the importance of having a good economy or running a good entity “is what gives you the ability to withstand shocks,”.
• PM Holness also noted that consultants conducted all the necessary tests to advise on the engineering needed to do the repairs. He urged individuals reliant on cruise shipping in the town to understand that there is a process to ensure that when the infrastructure is rebuilt, it can withstand future crises. He emphasized that the damage to the structure provided an opportunity to re-engineer, re-craft, and expand what exists.

(Source: JIS)

• Artificial Intelligence (AI), the latest global phenomenon, was a major focus at the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s (CTO) Caribbean Week in New York, where a Ministerial forum looked at leveraging AI for tourism development.
• Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett emphasized AI's potential to revolutionize Caribbean tourism and promote seamless experiences within the industry.
• Speaking at the forum titled ‘Leveraging Artificial Intelligence’ at the Intercontinental Hotel in New York on Tuesday, the Minister said: “The human race has always created better ways of doing things, and AI forms part of this era of doing things better through technological applications.”
• The Ministerial panel, which was part of the CTO Caribbean Week program, included Hon. Chester Cooper, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Tourism, Investments, and Aviation for the Bahamas; Hon. Kenneth Bryan, CTO Chairman and Minister of Tourism and Ports for the Cayman Islands; and Lee Hall, Founder of Clarity Media.
• Minister Bartlett, along with his senior tourism executives are in the US on a multi-city marketing blitz that covers New York, Chicago, and Dallas. The engagement includes participation at CTO Caribbean Week, meetings with airline partners, and media interviews.

 (Source: JIS)

• The Financial Technology (Fintech) sector, which comprises companies that use technology for financial services, grew 340% between 2017 and 2023 in Latin America and the Caribbean and now exceeds 3,000 startups, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• Specifically, the number of startups went from 703 companies in 18 countries in 2017 to 3,069 in 26 states in 2023, according to an IDB and the company Finnovista in the framework of the fifth annual meeting of FintechLAC, held in Bogota.
• The study indicates that this growth was due to the high demand from financial consumers, the state of the financial digital infrastructure, and the availability of a specialised workforce.
• Brazil continues to have the highest number of fintech startups, with 24% of the total, followed by Mexico (20%), Colombia (13%), and Argentina and Chile with 10% each.
• The countries that grew the most in this area in the last two years were Peru, with 5.3% of the number of companies, followed by Ecuador (3%) and the Dominican Republic (2.1%). The latter, along with Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Guatemala, can be considered emerging markets in the Fintech ecosystem and are developing “with remarkable dynamism,” the IDB said in a statement.
• Finally, the set made up of Panama, Bahamas, Paraguay, El Salvador, Bolivia, Jamaica, Honduras, Venezuela, Belize, Barbados, Nicaragua, Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname represent 8.1% of Fintech startups.

 (Source: Dominican Today & IDB)

• Guyana is poised to welcome 350,000 visitors in 2024, reflecting a significant increase in its tourism sector. According to the Guyana Tourism Authority’s (GTA) Tourism Statistical Digest 2023, the country’s tourism industry has rebounded from the pandemic and surpassed its pre-pandemic visitor numbers.
• Director of the Guyana Tourism Authority (GTA) Kamrul Baksh highlighted in the report that international tourism reached 88% of its pre-pandemic levels, with global arrivals nearing 1.3Bn, as noted by the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023.
• Baksh projects a full recovery of international tourism by 2024, driven by factors like pent-up demand, expanded air connectivity, and a strong resurgence in Asian markets. “Guyana’s tourism industry is part of this global trend, which can be attributed mainly to the support received from both the private and public sectors,” Baksh stated.
• In 2023, Guyana saw an 11% increase in visitors compared to 2022, with a total of 319,147 tourists, marking an addition of 4,420 arrivals. Visitor numbers from January to April 2024 have shown a 12.4% increase over the same period in 2023, accounting for 112,751 visitors.
• The projection for 2024 is 350,000 visitors, bolstered by the addition of 595 new hotel rooms and major calendar events such as the Rupununi Rodeo, Mashramani, and Cricket Carnival. Other contributors to the anticipated growth include ongoing oil production, increased marketing efforts, product development, and major conferences.
• The trend is expected to continue in the coming years with more hotel completions significantly expanding the country’s accommodation capacity and a robust lineup of events.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• U.S. existing home sales fell for a third straight month in May as record-high prices and a resurgence in mortgage rates sidelined potential buyers from the market. There was, however, encouraging news on the housing market with the National Association of Realtors reporting on Friday that housing inventory jumped last month to a two-year-high. Rising supply, if sustained, could curb further price gains and improve affordability.
• Nonetheless, weak home sales added to a sharp drop in housing starts and building permits last month suggesting that a re-acceleration in mortgage rates from April through May had sapped momentum from the housing market recovery.
• "Poor affordability and still-low, though rising listings in the resale market are keeping buyers at bay, with little change expected until the Federal Reserve reduces policy rates," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
• Home sales dropped 0.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11Mn units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales sliding to a rate of 4.10Mn units. Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, decreased 2.8% year-on-year in May.
• The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage raced to a six-month high of 7.22% in early May before retreating to just below 7.0% by the end of the month, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
• Sales dropped 1.6% in the densely populated South. They were unchanged in the Midwest, which is considered the most affordable region, as well as in the Northeast and West.
• Housing inventory increased 6.7% to 1.28Mn units last month, the highest since August 2022. Supply jumped 18.5% from one year ago. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that inventory vaulted 40-60% in Texas and Florida, which he partially attributed to soaring costs like property insurance.

(Source: Reuters)

• A sliding yuan and extensive cash outflows from the mainland into Hong Kong show China's domestic investors are shelving expectations for any immediate recovery in their home markets and fleeing to the closest better-yielding assets. The yuan has dropped to seven-month lows this week, alongside a reversal in equity investment flows into China.
• Analysts said Hong Kong's stockpile of yuan deposits has also grown as mainland investors use their limited offshore investment channels to seek higher yields and companies prepare to pay annual dividends, adding to the pressure on the currency.
• "Sentiment on China soured over the past month as the market has rallied ahead of improvement in macro data, which continues to disappoint," said Gary Tan, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Tan, whose funds are underweight on Chinese stocks, said sentiment had come a long way from a time when mainland markets were considered "uninvestible", and he expected that it would improve further. However, investor patience has worn thin after months of waiting for authorities to roll out more stimulus, mainly to support a sinking property sector.
• The Shanghai benchmark stock index rose 20% between early February and mid-May, but is down 6% since. Foreigners who had returned to the market since February, after quitting in 2023, have turned sellers too this month, pulling out 33 billion yuan ($4.54 billion) via the northbound leg of the Stock Connect Scheme.
• Domestic investors have used the southbound leg to pump 129 billion yuan into Hong Kong. Analysts say investors have several reasons to pause and reflect, not just about how far the People's Bank of China will ease rates, but also on the approaching July plenum of China's Communist Party to shape economic and fiscal policy.

(Source: Reuters)

• Remittance inflows, which support consumer purchasing power, external account stability, and economic growth, fell for the month of March 2024.
• Net remittances to Jamaica declined by 1.1% (or US$3.1Mn) to US$279.2Mn in March, reflecting a US$4.1Mn (1.3%) decline in total remittances inflows, partly offset by a decline in remittance outflows of US$0.9Mn (4.7%). The decrease in gross remittance inflows reflected a -2.0% (or US$5.0Mn) decrease in inflows via Remittances Companies.
• The United States of America remained the largest source of remittance flows to Jamaica for March 2024. Remittances from the USA accounted for 69.8% of total flows, down from the 71.7% share recorded for March 2023.
• Other source countries that contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the United Kingdom (10.6%), followed by Canada and the Cayman Islands (8.7% and 6.7%, respectively).
• Net remittance inflows for the 3-month period (January- March) also declined by (0.4% or US$3.5Mn) relative to the same period last year to US$797.1Mn. Despite the decline, 2024 remittances remain above 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, with reported total inflows increasing by 43.5% (or US$241.8Mn) from US$555.3Mn in the corresponding period in 2019.
• This decline likely reflects normalisation of remittance flows following increases in 2020 and 2021, driven by stimulus packages issued by relevant government agencies in major source countries, as well as reduced disposable income due to higher inflation.
• Furthermore, with more Jamaicans employed, the need to send remittances may be diminished. Additionally, increased travel by Jamaicans from the diaspora bringing cash in hand may have also contributed to the decline.

(Sources: BOJ and NCB Research)