• The Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE) chief executive officer, Eva Mitchell, shared that stock market performance declined in 2024 due to investors shifting from equities to other assets such as bonds.
• Mitchell noted that despite the 12% decrease reported last year, now is an excellent time for investors to explore opportunities in the equity market. She believes the market is at a turning point and encourages both institutional and retail investors to see this as a chance to invest at better prices.
• 'The 2024 stock market performance, as measured by our market indices, has been a year of decline for us. So, the stock market did fall in 2024; as a matter of fact, our major index fell by about 12% year on year, and there were some major headwinds that would have led to that decline. I would say generally, part of the problem is a systemic problem,' said Mitchell at the TTSE head office, Nicholas Tower, Port of Spain.
• To address these issues, Mitchell said the TTSE is working to bring more initial public offerings (IPOs) to the market and is collaborating with the relevant authorities to resolve some of these systemic challenges. She believes that with the right measures and policies in place, these problems can be gradually addressed.
• Mitchell further explained that the decline in stock prices, along with higher short-term interest rates on bonds over the past year, led large investors to favour bonds and fixed markets due to their greater stability and attractiveness.
• Still, Mitchell noted that while the country “did not have a consistent number of IPOs coming into our markets, with only two IPO coming to market last year, this presents an opportunity for investors because, in the face of a declining market or lower prices, it is a perfect opportunity to actually buy.”
• Mitchell also shared that the TTSE has been leading educational initiatives, including those through digital platforms. She added that in addition to more IPOs, the TTSE is working on introducing a US index-based product to local investors, priced in local (TTD) currency. Mitchell mentioned that discussions are underway with regulators and key market stakeholders.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• Eduardo Sanz Lovatón, Director General of Customs for the Dominican Republic, highlighted the growing importance of logistics as the Dominican Republic’s leading economic sector, with exports surpassing US$12.93Bn and reaching over 160 countries, marking an 8.3% increase from the previous year and up from US$11.9Bn from January to November 2024.
• He emphasised the country’s capabilities in producing medical supplies, artificial intelligence, and robotics, reinforcing its potential as a global technology exporter. Sanz Lovatón noted that the Dominican Republic is making significant progress toward becoming the region’s main logistics hub, leveraging its strategic geographic position.
• Ramón Albuquerque Ramírez, rector of UFHEC (Universidad Federico Henríquez y Carvajal) reaffirmed the commitment of local universities to expanding logistics education and training to meet industry demands.
• Furthermore, Wady Ramírez, president of ADOU (Spanish acronym for Dominican Association of University Rectors), stressed that transforming the nation into a logistics hub is a shared responsibility, involving not only the government and private sector but also academic institutions that prepare future professionals.
• Overall, the sustained growth reaffirms foreign trade’s essential role in driving the Dominican economy, creating jobs, and boosting foreign currency income. The success of export promotion policies and the resilience of the national sector position the Dominican Republic as a competitive and dynamic player in the global market.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Two Federal Reserve officials warned on Monday the large-scale tariffs now being pursued by the Trump Administration come with inflation risks, even as they stopped short of saying how that's affecting their thinking about monetary policy in a climate of notable uncertainty.
• "The kind of broad-based tariffs that were announced over the weekend, one would expect to have an impact on prices," Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Collins said in an interview with CNBC, adding that "with broad-based tariffs, you actually would not only see increases in prices of final goods, but also a number of intermediate goods."
• Collins, however, noted there's not a lot of experience on how mega tariffs impact the economy in the modern age, which makes it hard for the Fed to know exactly how things will play out. She noted its possible that the Fed could even shrug off a one-time increase in inflation tied to the tariffs, although even that was uncertain.
• Trump on Saturday slapped tariffs on the three largest U.S. trade partners, announcing a 25.0% duty on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10.0% duty on imports from China. Canada retaliated with its own tariffs on a range of U.S. products. On Monday, Trump said he was suspending the tariffs on Mexico for a month after President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send soldiers to the U.S.-Mexican border to curb drug trafficking. Economists broadly expect the tariffs will push up inflation and depress growth, but are struggling to measure to what extent, given the fluidity of the situation.
• Analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said Monday that the full suite of tariffs on the three nations will cost the typical American household an additional $1,200 a year in higher costs. Meanwhile, ING chief international economist James Knightley highlighted the uneven nature of who will bear the impact of tariffs, which are effectively tax increases on American citizens, as tariffs are paid by the citizens of importing nations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Eurozone inflation accelerated last month but remained on an anticipated course that could let the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates further, even if a surging dollar, a looming trade war and higher gas prices raise uncertainty.
• The ECB lowered borrowing costs for the fourth straight time last week and hinted at even more policy easing since inflation could be back at its 2.0% goal by late summer, economic growth is anaemic and a trade war was a distinct possibility.
• Consumer price inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro accelerated to 2.5% in January from 2.4% in December, just above expectations for 2.4% in a Reuters poll, as sharply higher energy costs added to price pressures.
• However, underlying inflation, a valuable indicator of the durability of price growth, held steady at 2.7% and services inflation eased. That was a modest relief to the ECB which has long argued that domestic price pressures are too high, even if all conditions are in place for some easing in those pressures given more muted wage growth.
• While quicker inflation is not welcome, the figures are in line with the narrative outlined by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who last week said that price growth could oscillate around these levels for the coming months before a slowdown towards the 2% target in the subsequent period.
• Indeed, Lithuanian policymaker Gediminas Simkus said he expected a rate cut in March and even that is unlikely to be the last move. Slovakia's central bank chief Peter Kazimir, meanwhile, has already appeared to shift his focus to the April meeting, arguing that for now, the ECB was not yet done.
• The biggest risk to such an outlook is whether U.S. President Donald Trump levies fresh tariffs on the European Union and how the bloc responds. Tariffs slow economic growth since they reduce demand for European goods overseas, weighing on exports, a key driver of growth for decades. But retaliatory measures could push up domestic inflation by making goods imported from the U.S. more expensive.

(Source: Reuters)

• United Oil and Gas (UOG) Plc spent just over US$39.3Mn, or J$6.3Bn, over 10 years in its search for oil and gas offshore Jamaica. This was disclosed by the Minister of Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport, Hon. Daryl Vaz, as he responded to questions posed by Opposition Spokesperson on Energy and Mining, Phillip Paulwell, in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (January 28).
• The Ministry has a specialised Oil and Gas Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) that allows United Oil and Gas Plc of Ireland to exclusively explore for oil and gas offshore Jamaica. Mr. Vaz informed that an aggressive work programme was put forward in January 2024 that will significantly de-risk identified oil and gas prospects off Jamaica’s south coast.
• “The work programme includes a concentrated drop core/piston core survey, which is now going through the environmental application process at National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA).
• For this survey, a specialised vessel is scheduled to retrieve samples from the sea floor to test for the presence of oil/gas, which marks a major milestone for the project,” he stated. Mr. Vaz further informed that United Oil and Gas Plc continues to try to identify partners to share the risk in drilling with new companies looking at Jamaica as a drill-or-drop.
• UOG is a United Kingdom-based full-cycle oil and gas company that was founded in 2015 and was admitted to the London Stock Exchange Main Market in 2017. It subsequently transitioned to the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange in 2019.
• UOG has exclusive rights to explore oil and gas resources in the Walton Morant Basin by way of the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) signed in 2014. The Ministry of Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport (MSETT) recently allowed a two-year extension for UOG, which will end on January 31, 2026, or it can be extended if UOG decides to proceed with the next stage of exploration.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• GraceKennedy (GK) Limited has announced an agreement with Spike Industries Limited to acquire the remaining 30% stake in Catherine's Peak Bottling Company Limited, thereby securing full 100% ownership of the company.
• The transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions, will see Catherine's Peak Bottling Company Limited, owner of the Catherine’s Peak Spring water brand, becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of GraceKennedy. Frank James, CEO of GK Foods – Domestic, commented "In recent years, GK has been strengthening our position in Jamaica's growing spring water market. This has included our 2021 acquisition of 876 Spring Water, our 2023 acquisition of Unibev, and the steady increase of our stake in Catherine's Peak.”
• He further explained that the acquisition of Catherine's Peak perfectly aligns with GK’s strategy to own leading Jamaican brands, and by 2030 the leading brand in the Caribbean. James also emphasised Catherine’s Peak's strong market position and growth potential, noting that since GK's initial investment in 2018, the brand has become a significant component of the GK Foods portfolio.
• This acquisition represents a key milestone in the growth strategy for GraceKennedy’s Food Business. The company plans to introduce innovative products under the Catherine’s Peak brand and is actively exploring additional opportunities to expand its market presence. As part of these efforts, GraceKennedy is finalising plans to launch Catherine’s Peak exports to the Cayman Islands in 2025, with expectations for further expansion into new markets in the future.

(Source: JSE)

• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Thursday that if U.S. counterpart Donald Trump hiked tariffs on Brazilian products, he would reciprocate -- but that he would prefer improved relations over a trade war.
• The U.S. ran a trade surplus with Brazil last year at US$253.0Mn, according to the Brazilian government. Despite this, Trump included Brazil among the countries he believes intend to "harm" the U.S., raising the possibility of new tariffs. A Brazilian official had previously expressed hope that the country's longstanding trade deficit with the U.S. which has been unchanged since 2008 would spare it from Trump's tariff threats.
• The U.S. is a large buyer of Brazilian oil, steel products, coffee, aircraft and orange juice, while the South American country buys energy products, pharmaceutical goods and aircraft parts from the U.S., among other products.
• Lula, currently in his third term, said he would prefer to "improve our relationship with the United States" and boost trade ties with Brazil's second-largest trading partner after China. Citing Trump's comments that he plans to take back the Panama Canal or get control of Greenland, Lula said "he just has to respect the sovereignty of other countries."

(Sources: Reuters and NDTV)

• Violent weather exacerbated by climate change fueled hunger and food insecurity across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2023, according to a new United Nations report. Extreme weather drove up crop prices in multiple countries in the region in 2023.
• Hot weather and drought, intensified by the El Niño weather phenomenon, raised the price of corn in Argentina, Mexico, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, while heavy rain in Ecuador caused a 32 to 54 percent increase in wholesale prices in the same year.
• Though the report credits social safety nets with a measurable decrease in undernourishment throughout Latin America, it notes that the region’s poorest and most vulnerable populations are still more likely to suffer from food insecurity due to climate change – especially rural people.
• “The shocks are getting much more extreme,” said Lola Castro, the WFP’s regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean. “This is what’s creating larger food insecurity and under-nutrition.”
• As extreme weather increases food prices, some consumers gravitate toward cheaper, but less nutritious, ultra-processed foods. This is a particularly dangerous trend in Latin America, the UN report says, where “the cost of healthy diets is the highest in the world” and both childhood and adult obesity have risen markedly since 2000.

(Source: CNN World)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates on Thursday and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over lacklustre economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
• It was the fifth ECB rate cut since June and markets expect two or three more this year, driven by arguments that the biggest inflation surge in generations is nearly defeated, and the flagging economy needs relief.
• The ECB reaffirmed disinflation was "well on track" and welcomed slower growth in wages, which should help bring down inflation in the domestically focused part of the economy.
• With the euro zone economy stagnating in the last quarter due to an industrial recession and weak consumption, the ECB is seen sticking to its easing path even after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and hinted at a lengthy pause.
• Inflation, which rose to 2.4% in December, could still take a few months to ease back to the ECB's 2% goal but there is little to challenge the narrative that all is on track.
• Wage growth is easing, the labour market is softening, oil prices have come off early-year highs and the dollar's relentless firming seems to have stopped for now.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter as a strike at Boeing, contributed to depressing business investment, but robust consumer spending probably keeps the Federal Reserve on a slow interest rate cut path this year.
• Gross domestic product increased at a 2.3% annualised rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.1% pace in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance GDP estimate.
• The moderation in growth last quarter reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday was also because inventories at businesses were run down, underscoring the strong domestic demand.
• Furthermore, inflation warmed up last quarter, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, rising at a 2.5% rate compared to a 2.2% pace in the third quarter.
• Additionally, the Fed on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September. It has forecast only two rate cuts this year, down from the four it had projected in September, when it embarked on its policy easing cycle.
• That reflected uncertainty about the economic impact of fiscal, trade and immigration policies from the new Trump administration. Economists view the planned tax cuts, broad tariffs on imports and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants as inflationary. They expect economic growth to falter by the second half and inflation to rise.

(Source: Reuters)