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Increased Expense Sinks LASF Into Losses Published: 16 July 2020

  • Despite a 13.4% (or $295.80Mn) increase in revenues, Lasco Financial Services Limited reported an audited net loss of $56.92Mn (EPS: -4.49¢) for the year ended March 31, 2020. This represents an almost five-fold decline from the $281.76Mn (EPS: 22.28¢) net profit made in the prior year.
  • A 56.1% (or $429.20Mn) increase in selling and promotion expenses, a 22.9% (or $201.73Mn) rise in administrative expenses, as well as a 23.4% (or $39.55Mn) increase in finance costs drove this performance.
  • The stock price has fallen 42.6% since the start of the year, closing Wednesday’s trading session at $2.49. At this price, LASF trades at a P/B of 2.04x, which is below the Junior Market Financial Sector Average of 2.57x.

(Source: LASF Financials)

1834 Investments Reports Strong Growth in Profit Published: 16 July 2020

  • For the year ended March 31, 2020, 1834 Investments Limited reported audited net profit of $40.59Mn (EPS: 3.35¢), up by $35.04Mn, relative to the $5.55Mn reported in 2019.
  • This improvement was driven by a 73.4% (or $40.44Mn) increase in total revenues and $36.65Mn rise in share of profit from associates, which outstripped the 38.1% (or $17.54Mn) increase in other operating expenses and a 19.4% (or $4.74Mn) rise in administrative expenses.
  • This improvement in the bottom line was also supported by no fair value loss on investment properties for the reporting period, which represents an improvement from the $31.41Mn loss reported in the prior year.
  • The stock price has fallen 5.6% since the start of the year. 1834 Investments closed Wednesday’s trading session at $1.01 and is currently trading at a P/E of 30.1x, which is well above the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 15.0x.

(Source: 1834 Investments Financials)

Weakening Revenues Will Weigh On Panama's Fiscal Balance In 2020 Published: 16 July 2020

  • Fitch Solutions forecasted that Panama’s fiscal deficit will widen to 6.9% of GDP, an all-time high, in 2020 due to collapsing revenues and countercyclical government spending increases. This is a revision from its previous forecast of a 5.2% shortfall.
  • Despite holding a legislative majority, President Laurentino ‘Nito’ Cortizo will face significant headwinds in the coming years as he tries to return the country to fiscal consolidation.
  • That said, sustained demand for Panamanian debt will likely contain borrowing costs in the coming years, even as wider deficits push government debt higher.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

Rising Covid-19 Cases May Further Undermine Dominican Economy Published: 16 July 2020

  • Economic activity in the Dominican Republic will contract for the first time in decades in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic drives a decline in private consumption. Weak global demand for Dominican goods and services will persist despite a reopening of the country’s borders.
  • The Dominican government’s fiscal stimulus will provide limited economic support while president-elect Luis Abinader upholds the investor-friendly policies of his predecessor to bolster growth.
  • Fitch Solutions maintain its forecast for real GDP to decline 4.7% y-o-y in 2020, though they highlight downside risks presented by an uptick in active Covid-19 cases.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

China's Q2 GDP Grows 3.2%, Beats Expectations Published: 16 July 2020

  • China’s economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter of 2020, relative to the same period in 2019, recovering from a record contraction as lockdown measures ended and policymakers stepped up stimulus to combat the shock from the coronavirus crisis.
  • The growth was faster than the 2.5% forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and followed a steep 6.8% slump in the first quarter, the first such contraction since at least 1992 when quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) records began.
  • On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 11.5% in April-June, the bureau said, compared with expectations for a 9.6% rise and a 10% decline in the previous quarter.

(Source: Reuters)

The Real Virus Number Determining If Cities Return to Lockdown Published: 16 July 2020

  • As countries across Asia Pacific struggle with resurgences of the coronavirus, one data point is steering government responses: the share of cases with no clear indication of how infection occurred.
  • These patients cannot be linked to other confirmed infections or existing outbreaks by virus responders, indicating hidden chains of transmission. A growing proportion of such cases in a city’s resurgence pushes governments, like in Australia and Hong Kong, to take broad and blunt action, returning entire cities to lockdown-like conditions.
  • This data point is a telltale sign of whether resurgences across the world will flare up into bigger waves, and if residents need to gird themselves for a return to lockdown.
  • The Asian financial hub enjoyed three months of normal life before a surprise resurgence this month that looks to set to be its worst wave ever. Infections of “unknown origins” have surged to half of all new local cases, indicating that they are emerging from all corners.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Shocks To Tourism, Remittance Inflows Will Widen Jamaica's Current Account Deficit Published: 15 July 2020

  • According to Fitch, Jamaica’s current account deficit will increase to 6.7% of GDP in 2020, from 2.1% in 2019, before narrowing modestly to 5.0% of GDP in 2021. Tourism accounts for the majority of Jamaica’s services trade surplus, which was equivalent to 10.7% of GDP in 2019.
  • While Jamaica reopened to foreign travel on June 15, Fitch expects that activity in the sector will remain weak through H220. The continued global spread of Covid-19 and stringent protocols on foreign travel in Jamaica, including randomized testing upon arrival, will limit tourism demand.
  • Falling remittances and goods exports will also contribute to the widening of Jamaica’s current account deficit. In April 2020, remittances contracted by 9.8% y-o-y, and this trend is expected to continue as unemployment in the US remains high and the continued spread of Covid-19 forces additional lockdowns.
  • The coronavirus has also disrupted mining operations and undermined demand for Jamaica’s main goods export, bauxite. Bauxite, which is mined for its aluminum content, accounted for 62.7% of Jamaica’s total goods exports in 2019. However, the temporary closure of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Company's Alpart plant pushed down bauxite exports by 21.0% y-o-y in March 2020, which Fitch expects to continue as global economic activity remains weak. The forecast is that Jamaica’s goods trade deficit will swell to 26.6% of GDP in 2020.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

Dominican Republic's New President To Maintain Pro- Investment Policies Published: 15 July 2020

  • President-elect Luis Abinader will maintain business-friendly policies in the Dominican Republic as he takes office in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Fitch Solutions has revised up its Short-Term Political Risk Index score to 67.0 out of 100, from 65.9 previously, as the transition of power from the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) to the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM) supports political stability.
  • The new administration’s biggest challenges will be fulfilling campaign pledges to combat corruption and narrow the country’s fiscal deficits.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

IDB Invest Issues More Bonds For Coronavirus Response Published: 15 July 2020

  • IBD Invest said Tuesday that it sold $1Bn worth of 3-year bonds to fund a lending program for companies affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, building on a $1Bn issue in April.
  • The Washington DC-based multilateral lender, part of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), priced the new 0.5% notes at $99.96 to yield 0.51%, equal to 29 basis points over mid-swaps or 33.75 basis over US Treasury bonds.
  • The bookrunners- BMO (Bank of Montreal), Citi, Goldman Sachs and TD (Toronto-Dominion) Securities- took more than $1.55Bn in orders from 51 investors, with 38% of buyers from the Americas, 37% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and 25% from Asia.
  • Central banks and official institutions bought 75% of the notes on offer, followed by fund managers with 14%, commercial banks with 7% and insurers and pension plans with 4%, according to IBD Invest.

(Source: Latinfinance)

Singapore Slumps Into Recession With Record 41.2% GDP Plunge Published: 15 July 2020

  • Singapore’s economy plunged into recession last quarter as an extended lockdown shuttered businesses and decimated retail spending, a sign of the pain the pandemic is wreaking across export-reliant Asian nations.
  • Gross domestic product declined an annualized 41.2% from the previous three months, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Tuesday, the biggest quarterly contraction on record and worse than the Bloomberg survey median of a 35.9% drop. Compared with a year earlier, GDP fell 12.6% in the second quarter, versus a survey median of -10.5%.
  • A plunge in global trade has hit the export-reliant manufacturing industry, while retailers saw a record decline in sales after partial lockdown measures were imposed last quarter. The government, which has projected a full-year economic contraction of 4%-7%, didn’t provide a new forecast Tuesday.
  • The dismal outlook in Singapore is pressuring the ruling People’s Action Party, which had its weakest performance ever in last week’s election. The government has already pledged about S$93Bn ($67Bn) in stimulus to shore up troubled businesses and households and prevent a surge in retrenchments.

(Source: Bloomberg)