• As expected, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it had maintained the policy rate at 5.50% on March 31, 2026. It also noted it would continue targeted measures to support stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market. The decision comes amid heightened global uncertainty, particularly stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is in its fifth week. It also reflects the Bank’s view that the current policy stance remains appropriate to guide inflation back toward its 4.0%–6.0% target over the medium term.
• Although headline inflation remained below the Bank’s target range at 3.9% in February 2026, the MPC noted that inflation is expected to trend upward over the course of the year and could temporarily exceed the target. This anticipated increase is largely driven by sharp rises in international commodity prices, especially oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and fertilisers, as well as higher global shipping costs. These developments are expected to translate into increased domestic energy and transportation costs, placing upward pressure on overall price levels.
• Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, is also projected to rise above the target range during 2026. This outcome would reflect second-round effects from higher input costs as well as the pass-through of elevated inflation expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, domestic factors such as government tax measures and stronger spending linked to post-hurricane recovery efforts are expected to further contribute to inflationary pressures.
• In this context, the MPC highlighted that risks to the inflation outlook over the next two years are skewed to the upside. The key concern is the potential for a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to further increases in commodity prices and exacerbate imported inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation expectations and stronger domestic demand could also amplify price pressures. However, weaker consumer purchasing power could temper demand and partially offset these risks.
• The BOJ continued to monitor key indicators and risks. It shared that private-sector credit growth has slowed, indicating some moderation in economic activity, while the financial system remains stable with adequate capital and liquidity buffers. Additionally, Jamaica’s strong foreign reserves position also continues to provide an important cushion against external shocks and supports orderly conditions in the FX market. The central bank projects that real GDP will expand within the range of 1.0% to 3.0% for fiscal year 2026/27. However, downside risks persist, particularly related to the potential adverse impact of higher global prices on key service industries such as the tourism sector.
• Overall, the MPC signalled a cautious but steady approach, emphasising its readiness to adjust policy if inflationary pressures intensify or become more persistent. The Bank remains focused on anchoring inflation expectations and mitigating second-round effects, particularly if the global shock proves prolonged and continues to pass through to domestic prices.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• Data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the unemployment rate for January 2026 edged down to 3.6% from 3.7% in January 2025. The unemployment rate fell not because more people found jobs, but largely because fewer people were counted as part of the labour force.
• Jamaica’s labour force declined by 2.24% to 1,441,000. This decline corresponded with a 4.8% increase in the number of persons outside the labour force to 714,800 individuals. This rise was evenly distributed across genders, with 16,900 more males and 16,100 more females classified as outside the labour force, reinforcing the trend of declining participation. Consequently, the labour force participation rate weakened to 66.8%, down from 68.4% in January 2025, signalling reduced engagement in economic activity.
• The number of persons employed also declined by 2.1% to 1,389,400. Employment among males declined by 2.0% to 747,700, while the number of employed females fell by 2.2% to 641,800. Youth employment also declined by 11.1% to 149,500. Ultimately, the marginally faster decline in the labour force relative to employed people translated to a faster decline in the number of unemployed persons (-5.5%).
• With the number of unemployed persons declining by 5.5%, a faster rate than the 2.4% decline in the labour force, the unemployment rate consequently decreased.
• Nevertheless, the decline may be masking emerging labour market pressures, particularly in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane’s impact, especially across the western parishes of Jamaica, disrupted key sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and small business activity, which likely contributed to job losses and reduced labour force participation. The lower unemployment rate appears to reflect not only fewer persons actively seeking work, but also hurricane-related displacement and temporary withdrawal from the labour market, rather than sustained, broad-based job creation.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic government is set to sit down with national airlines in the coming days to evaluate how climbing oil prices are affecting air travel operations.
• Tourism Minister David Collado confirmed authorities are keeping a close eye on global energy markets. To cushion any potential impact, the government is doubling down on short-haul routes, particularly to Colombia and Puerto Rico, and pushing forward on agreements with Canada to keep tourism flows steady.
• On the bright side, tourism remains robust, with roughly 800,000 visitors recorded last month alone, surpassing pre-pandemic numbers. Top source markets include the U.S., Germany, Canada, Argentina, and Chile.
• The government says it will keep strengthening partnerships with airlines and tour operators, especially on regional routes, to protect the sector and maintain the DR's standing as a top Caribbean destination.
• The broader economic fallout could be significant, as oil prices have climbed from the US$65 per barrel projected in 2026, straining public finances, with recent fuel price hikes of between 5.2% and 6.7%. President Abinader has warned that the ripple effects could extend beyond the pump, potentially hitting electricity rates, transportation costs, and food prices, putting everyday Dominican households under growing pressure.

(Sources: Dominican Today & NCBCM Research)

• Prime Minister and Finance Minister Philip J. Pierre laid the estimates of revenue and expenditure for 2026/27 on March 24, 2026, with the total budget proposal standing at XCD 2.19Bn.
• Pierre acknowledged that the level of economic uncertainty now being faced was not anticipated when the budget process began in September, citing rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions as key threats to small nations like St. Lucia.
• The 2025/26 fiscal year delivered one of the country's best recent budget performances, with overall government spending coming in at XCD1.99Bn, approximately 3.4% below the approved ceiling of XCD 2.06 Bn.
• The overall fiscal deficit was significantly reduced from a projected $202.1Mn down to $143.8Mn, while a current surplus of $243.6Mn was recorded, well exceeding the $199.3 Mn target. A primary surplus of $90.1Mn was also achieved, far above the projected $34.7 Mn.
• Tax revenues reached $1.48Bn, growing 5.3% over the prior year, driven by strong construction activity, booming tourism arrivals, and increased imports. Key contributors included a 13.3% rise in taxes on international trade, a 16.4% jump in excise taxes, and a 3.8% increase in VAT collections.
• In a show of fiscal confidence, the government chose not to draw down $65.6 Mn in previously secured loans, opting instead for lower-cost short-term treasury bills and bonds, reflecting growing investor confidence in Saint Lucian securities.
• Looking ahead, the 2026/27 budget will prioritise the Hewanorra International Airport redevelopment, deeper investments in healthcare, education, and renewable energy. The modernisation of the education system, expansion of the road network, and removal of barriers to business growth will also be prioritised, all while maintaining fiscal responsibility.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• As the US-Iran conflict enters its fifth week, BMI Fitch has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 downward from 2.3% to 2.1%, while inflation is now projected to average 3% (up from 2.8% previously) and end the year at 2.8% (up from 2.4% previously).
• These forecast revisions stem from a shifted view of the conflict to an ‘Extend to End’ scenario, which entails up to another four weeks of high-intensity military operations without the conflict spiralling out of control. Consequently, the Brent crude price is forecast to average USD78/bbl in 2026 (up from USD70/bbl in the previous view).
• Higher Brent crude prices feed higher gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices, which all contribute to a higher inflation forecast for 2026. In this scenario, the inflation effect will persist for longer than previously forecast but still show signs of unwinding towards end-2026, leaving the end-year inflation forecast of 2.8% below the annual average (3%).
• The Federal Reserve is now expected to conduct 25bps of monetary policy easing in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 50bps, on account of higher inflation. Rate cuts are expected to pause for longer over worries of lingering inflation and raised inflation expectations, even after the conflict ends. In this scenario, conditions are still expected to merit one rate cut towards end-2026, as inflation moves toward its 2% target while unemployment remains elevated.
• GDP growth has been revised down as higher inflation from increased energy costs will further reduce private consumption and investment growth, amplified by less monetary policy easing. Despite higher oil prices, US oil investment is not expected to increase enough to outweigh the broader negative impact on economy-wide investment.
• Risks to the outlook have increased, with a 45% probability that the conflict shifts to a more damaging ‘Extend to Escalate’ scenario. This would likely increase inflation and reduce growth beyond current forecasts. For monetary policy, risks are two-sided: the Fed may not cut rates at all, or may even increase rates, if inflation risks intensify, but could still cut rates if employment risks rise sufficiently, particularly to avoid a recession.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Between March 25 and March 30, 2026, several companies listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) disclosed delays in publishing their December 2025 audited financial statements. December Audited financials are due by March 30^th, but their revised deadlines range from April 15 to May 15, 2026.
• Hurricane Melissa caused delays for related entities Caribbean Producers (Jamaica) Limited (CPJ), A.S. Bryden & Sons Holdings Limited (ASBH), and Seprod Limited (SEP). The delays originated at CPJ, where additional time was needed to complete its audit following the hurricane. With ASBH controlling (>75%) stake in CPJ and Seprod having a roughly 80% ownership of ASBH, completion of their audits relies on the completion of CPJ’s.
• Other companies like Stanley Motta Limited (SML), Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS), and FosRich Company Limited (FOSRICH) also announced delays. The companies cited that audit finalisation is ongoing. Similarly, Spur Tree Spices Jamaica Limited (SPURTREE) reported a delay in its ongoing audit finalisation processes, noting that additional time was needed for external auditors to complete their work.
• While the financial audits were delayed, management has communicated revised dates for submission, meaning shareholders will not be denied. Management at CPJ, ASBH and Sepord communicated that all its audits should be complete before May 15, 2026. SML, PBS and Fosrich have tighter schedules with audited financial statements now expected on or before April 30, 2026. Lastly, SPURTREE’s management indicated its audited financials are expected on or before April 15, 2026.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On March 30, 2026, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited (KNTYR) disclosed on the JSE that it had completed a J$500Mn acquisition of a 170-acre property in Clarendon, marking a notable step in its asset-backed growth strategy. The site contains limestone, aggregates, river shingles, and potential gold-bearing geology, which the company plans to evaluate through structured technical studies.
• Rather than operating the quarry itself, Kintyre is in discussions with experienced overseas partners to manage operations, while it retains governance oversight and earns revenue through royalty-based arrangements.
• The Clarendon property, along with potential complementary projects such as housing or tourism developments, will be managed through Parallel Real Estate Ventures, Kintyre’s real estate arm that has driven recent growth. Parallel’s pipeline includes The Chalet at Bengal Beach, fully approved for 26 units, and recent acquisitions in Stony Hill and St. Catherine, reinforcing Kintyre’s focus on long-term, asset-backed value creation.
• Chairman, President, and CEO Tyrone Wilson emphasised the impact of Kintyre’s strategy, noting that the company’s holdings have grown by 651% to approximately J$1.72Bn. This growth occurred following its merger-and-acquisition¹ Wilson underscored the company’s focus on building a sustainable corporate brand, stating that crossing the US$10Mn asset threshold confirms that its strategic initiatives over the past two years are translating into real balance sheet strength.
• While Kintyre’s strategy has driven rapid balance sheet expansion through acquisitions and asset-backed investments, much of this growth appears early-stage, with assets not yet consistently translating into stable cash flows.
• At market close on Tuesday, March 30, 2026, Kntyr’s price was J$0.36, down 52.60% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/E of 1.80x, which is below the Junior Market Others Average Sector average of 24.4x.

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¹ Kintyre Holdings’ merger-and-acquisition restructuring involved its transition from iCreate Limited, a digital training and creative education company, into a holding company through a series of acquisitions and internal reorganization.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On March 30, 2026, BMI (a Fitch Solutions Company) published its quarterly Costa Rica Country Risk Report, which assessed the economic and political risk profile of the sovereign. The report highlights political stability following the February 2026 election, a positive economic outlook, but noted risks including fiscal consolidation pressures, elevated exposure to US demand and rising crime.
• Costa Rica held its presidential election on February 1, 2026, with President-elect Laura Fernández taking office on May 8 with a working legislative majority of 31 out of 57 seats. This administration is expected to maintain broad policy continuity with the Chávez administration, particularly with regards to fiscal consolidation and a hardline approach to crime.
• On the economic front, Fitch noted tht following a strong post-pandemic recovery, Real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026. This is a moderation from 4.6% in 2025 toward the pre-pandemic trend of 3.8%, with private consumption and the manufacturing sector, which accounts for roughly 70.0% of total exports, remaining the primary drivers of activity.
• Meanwhile, despite progress in recent years, supported by a primary surplus of around 1.0% of GDP in 2025, fiscal consolidation is expected to stall in 2026 with the deficit widening slightly to 3.6% of GDP. This will result in a sharp slowdown in revenue growth. In 2025, total revenues grew just 0.8%. Moreover, spending remains highly rigid, with wages, transfers, and interest payments accounting for close to 90.0% of total expenditure. As a result, the pace of consolidation is expected to remain gradual, with the incoming Fernández administration signalling continuity with the current fiscal framework rather than introducing new measures to accelerate deficit reduction.
• The report also touched on expectations for Costa Rica’s monetary policy. The Central Bank of Costa Rica held its policy rate at 3.25% on March 26 despite market expectations for a cut and is forecast to deliver an additional 25 basis point reduction to 3.00% in the second half of 2026. This outlook is underpinned by rising global oil prices and resilient domestic activity, both of which limit the case for more aggressive easing. The Monthly Economic Activity Index expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in January 2026, supporting the growth outlook.
• Separately, its current account deficit is projected to widen modestly to 1.9% GDP from 1.6% in 2025. This expectation is driven by a growing goods trade deficit as import demand holds up and a stronger colón weighs on export competitiveness. This will be supported by a large services surplus and robust Foreign Direct Investment inflows, with gross international reserves at US$11.9Bn as of February 2026.
• Notwithstanding the positives, there are some key risks to Costa Rica’s economic outlook. This includes a heavy dependence on United States demand through exports and FDI, leaving the sovereign vulnerable to any slowdown from the U.S. Persistent colón strength, weighing on export competitiveness and rising crime, is also adversely impacting investor confidence. Finally, high public debt constrains fiscal flexibility, while longer-term structural bottlenecks in infrastructure and labour market productivity risk capping the economy's growth potential over the medium term.

(Sources: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Middle East crisis has driven a roughly 10.0% increase in daily ship transits through the Panama Canal above budgeted levels. Daily crossings totalled between 38 and 41 daily crossings over the past two weeks, compared to the planned 34 to 36, as vessels seek a safer and more cost-efficient alternative to disrupted Middle Eastern shipping routes.
• Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta highlighted the Canal's appeal in the current environment. He noted that it offers a safe, short route that provides better economies of scale at elevated fuel prices, reinforcing Panama's strategic value as a global maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical instability.
• The Liquefied Natural Gas segment, which pays the second-highest toll on the Canal after container ships in the Neopanamax locks, is showing signs of meaningful recovery following a post-Ukraine war decline. New reservations expected for April, represent a positive and timely revenue uplift for Canal finances.
• The Canal is currently running 10% above budget in both tonnage and revenue, though authorities noted it will be necessary to wait until the end of the fiscal year to fully measure the impact. For context, fiscal year 2025 Canal revenues reached US$5.71Bn, a 14.4% increase, with total transits of 13,404.
• For the Panamanian sovereign, this development is a meaningful near-term credit positive. Canal toll revenues are a critical pillar of government finances and fiscal consolidation efforts. Sustained above-budget traffic, if maintained through the second and third quarters of 2026, could provide meaningful relief to Panama's elevated fiscal deficit and partially offset the sovereign's ongoing refinancing pressures.

(Source: Newsroom Panama & NCBCM Research)

• The U.S. national average retail price of gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, March 30, 2026, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets. The $4 per gallon threshold, last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, represents what analysts have described as a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for a range of goods have been rising alongside crude oil, following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade chokepoint.
• Surging fuel prices have begun to weigh on U.S. household finances, which were already under pressure from elevated living costs. The national average gasoline price has increased by approximately $1.06 per gallon, or 36%, since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February. With crude oil prices continuing to climb, analysts warn that pump prices could rise further in the near term.
• According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 55% of respondents said their household finances had been at least “somewhat” affected by higher gasoline prices, with 21% reporting that the impact had been felt “a great deal.”
• Notwithstanding these pressures, the administration has taken steps to assuage rising energy costs as the conflict has persisted, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel, fertiliser and other goods between U.S. ports. However, industry participants expect the measure to have only a marginal impact on price increases.
• “The key issue is not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” said economist, Jeremy Siegel. “That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

(Source: Reuters)